WEEK 38 : A/H Discussion and Poll

nors · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 1034

This is real money and we currently have £1811.75 in the OLBG betting fund.

As the season has progressed the debate has become better,more informed, sensible and inciteful. Well done everyone. Some results have not gone for us and we have lost money, but lets finish with some wins and claw some money back.

We now have 4 categorys. This thread is for the A/H discussion and poll. Please add your reasoned posts and vote on which match we should go for in this category as our choice.

Remember our funds are growing and to work out the downside as well as the potential profit.

Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
Then for the final decision thread. We will be having a poll

Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

king pete · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject:

Only ones id think about is Villa and Blackburn here, with Villa getting the vote.I think they will comfortably see off Wigan.Villa are scoring plenty while Wigan dont score many.

Blackburn should do the same.Derby's defending was shocking against Arsenal and were punished.Blackburn havnt been scoring many but they are due a big win and with Cruz scoring goals again and Derby's defending they should win this with ease.The above bet gets my vote though with better odds.

Vote goes to Aston Villa AH -1

tipstonga · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject:

The AH bet increases risks looking for a prize. None of this except Fu v Bi approach to the odds we need to search for imo.

I submit to spider's arguments in the thread about the feasibility of a good outcome in this bet and vote

Fulham -0.75 @ 2.46

good luck Win

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theconstantgambler · Group 1 Class Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 446

Went for the Man United -1 AH bet.

Man United will win this game and the question would be by how many. Yes, it is true that WHU have given us trouble before but this is a very important game for us. The trophy is as good as ours all we have to do is win all remaining games.
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John Mac · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject:

Don't see Fulham beating birmingham so vote goes to Villa
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spider2097 · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject:

To be fair, my choice of "Fulham -0.75 AH" hasn't really been backed up by any solid evidence. My argument was predicated on the fact that I feel Fulham stand a better chance of winning - which is all based on a feeling about the form of both sides and totally against the stats from the league meeting between these two teams.

That said, it's my pick out of the options available. It would require a bit of ambition with the stake though - which would be hugely rewarded should it fully come in but also give a good return should Fulham only win by 1 goal.

At the risk of stating things unnecessarily :

Birmingham Win or Draw : the bet loses.
Fulham win by 1 goal : half stake returned & half stake wins at the stated odds
Fulham win by 2 goals or more : bet wins
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willieboy · Classic Winner Joined: 30 Jul 2007 Posts: 617

Last week I said my best bet was for Arsenal to easily beat Derby and they did...this week Blackburn at home can do the same.

But odds for B`burn -1.5...1.85 far too short.

The best choice value wise is A Villa -1 v Wigan.

This is far better than A V to win by 2 or more because of the safety aspect. I think we should risk £1000 on this bet. Does anybody really think Wigan are going to beat A Villa at home!!

bottomlesspit · Group 1 Class Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 262

I have been impressed with the strength of conviction behind the Villa bets. I don't mind supporting a strong opinion in a week where to be honest I don't really have one myself.
...and it will add some spice for the lads who are going

Just a question whether this or the win by 2 prevails.......

thetitan · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2795

between West Ham +2 and Blackburn -1.5 AH for me, I think that both are very good value bets but a 2-0 or 3-1 is no good for us on the West Ham bet...so my money goes to Blackburn -1.5AH, Derby are simply awful and with Santa Cruz in form, I can see another thrashing on the cards here.

surprised i'm the only one who reckons that blackburn -1.5 is better than aston villa -1! Shocked

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johno · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:56 pm Post subject:

I would agree the best choice in this lineup is the Villa game.

They will be all out to heap the pressure on Everton's 5th place, knowing they have Arsenal on the Sunday. Villa as the team know have been impressive over the past few weeks.. difficult to see what Wigan have to offer here.

Win

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bigmoose · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:14 pm Post subject:

Sticking to form & proper stats Villa the no-brainer here. Of their 10 home wins 7 have been by a 2 goal margin or more. Wigan are dog on the road!
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