WEEK 38: Goals Poll and Discussion

[nors]

This is real money and we currently have £1811.75 in the OLBG betting fund.

As the season has progressed the debate has become better,more informed, sensible and inciteful. Well done everyone. Some results have not gone for us and we have lost money, but lets finish with some wins and claw some money back.

We now have 4 categorys. This thread is for the goals discussion and poll. Please add your reasoned posts and vote on which match we should go for in this category as our choice.

Remember our funds are growing and to work out the downside as well as the potential profit.


Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
Then for the final decision thread. We will be having a poll


Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

[tipstonga]

As I said in the thread Everton needs and Arsenal proud makes very possible that goals go over 2.5 .
Also it is the only bet over evens (but not a bofw of course), so my vote:

Over 2.5 Arsenal v Everton @2.05

good luck
_________________
tipstonga
1st Premiership 6-months-profit blogger
NTB February Champion (4 platinum record)

[willieboy]

The only one that gives me any confidence is...Bolton v Sunderland.

Bolton will be on the attack (no great shakes there) and Sunderland can play a mean defence when they want to.

Can`t have this as BOTW though as the odds are prohibitive.

All the others look risky to me.

[thetitan]

was expecting the bolton unders price to be around 1.6ish, 1.75 is great value IMO and the price will be 1.6 or thereabouts at KO.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[johno]

For the price, I do have to go with Arsenal v Everton Over here

Everton's last game, leaky D cost them against villa..2-2..Arsenal involved in a one sided 8 goal thriller? against Derby..
Both teams will certainly be going for the win, even more so..that the pressure is on with Everton to maintain 4th. They know Villa will likely get something at home to Wigan..so they cant settle for a defeat/draw!

I say a defeat because this game in the previous seasons as seen Everton railroaded aswell!! I even remember Tony Adams getting up front to score against the toffeess some years back..thats the fear factor Arsenal have over Everton.. they can break them down!

Rambling on... going with the Over, which is sure to see both teams going for it!
_________________
OLBG Member: 189

[bigmoose]

All the Odds-On are too short to get any votes from me.

So just leaves the Q of is Ars +2.5goals good enough at 2.05 or do i not vote at all?

Everton have not scored more than 1 goal in a match since Cahill went missing until last week at home to Villa (where Villa had about 5 men behind the ball max). So this bet prob priced to its true probability.
_________________
Steve

[wize 1]

blackburn v derby here is my stats to back this up= 33= =matches this season have been overs when these two teams have played between them out of =72 pretty good strike rate (imo) but stats seem to get ignored or bypassed for what ever reason,,, the last match at derby was 2-1 for blackburn anyway here is also a reason why arsenal match overs dosent look a good call...on stats from my earlier post may have found another good bet with these stats arsenal look the more likely winners still trying for a miracal to happen...........well i have found that in arsenal last 5 home games it has finished under 2.5 goals also evertons last 5 aways games also have finished under 2.5 goals now in the last home and away games we have a 100% strike now once these stats are out can see bookies shortening the odds up the only concern is arsenal average winning 2-1 and evertons away record is 1-1 but it looks unders ----10 out of 10 looks a solid bet (imo) 4/5 888sports 11/13 BetDaq can it be 11 vote for unders on them stats blackburn overs[/b]