WEEK 40 : Other Bets Poll and Discussion

monkeytennis · Listed Class Joined: 25 Jun 2007 Posts: 35

This is real money and we currently have £1261.75 in the OLBG betting fund.

As the season has progressed the debate has become better,more informed, sensible and inciteful. Well done everyone. Some results have not gone for us and we have lost money, but lets finish with some wins and claw some money back.

We now have 4 categorys. This thread is for the Other bets discussion and poll. Please add your reasoned posts and vote on which match we should go for in this category as our choice.

Remember our funds are growing and to work out the downside as well as the potential profit.

Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
Then for the final decision thread. We will be having a poll

Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3389

chelsea to nil probable
chelsea to win 2-0 very probable
ronaldo very probable
brum /draw bet is a no go for me as think brum will win
derby result no go as reading will win

most likely is probably ronaldo but much more tempted by the odds on chelsea correct score

tipstonga · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject:

A pair of bets here are according to the " 1000 in the kitty" plan of a small stake at high odds.
Both are equally probable I think. So as I was the first to propose the Bi/draw bet I shall bet for the other, in this way I am free to wish a Blackburn win and 6th place which I think they deserve.
My vote goes for
Derby v Reading - Draw HT Derby FT @ 15.0

just 200 stake and may be we can show our tongues Cheeky

to the Bookies.

good luck Win

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spider2097 · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject:

Brum HT/Draw FT @ 17.00 for me. Great chance of this happening IMO. Usually Home HT/Draw FT is around 14.00 or 15.00, given the teams that Birmingham have had this result against I would argue that it's overpriced & should be taken.
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bottomlesspit · Group 1 Class Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 299

It is easy when you need the cash to look for improbable things to happen at long odds.

Sure enough, I am tempted by both the really long shots, but the Brum- Blackburn game is just too iffy

I can understand why Chelsea win to nil was suggested, but it cannot be seriously considered as a bargain if it has no price. In the same vein - we do know Ronaldo's AGS price, and it is a joke.

Derby to win looks a bold call at first, but for them to be even at HT is not so far fetched. For all their faults, Derby are starting to score - which is more than can be said for Reading. I really like this one.

Between that and Chelsea 2-0, which is as likely a scoreline as any other

I am going to have to sleep on it........

willieboy · Classic Winner Joined: 30 Jul 2007 Posts: 619

Ronaldo at 1.57....your havin a laugh!
Birm h/t and draw f/t isn`t a bad bet..but there are better one`s I feel.
Can`t have Draw h/t and Derby win f/t...I quite fancy Derby to take the lead (they do score) and Reading coming back for the draw....think this is much stronger.

Will go for the 2-0 score for Chelsea over Bolton. This will be a tight game until Chelsea score...probably in the 2nd half...and then Bolton will have to come out..leaving a good chance of a second for Chelsea.

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4442

don't really fancy either ht/ft bets. Ronaldo's odds way too low for me, while he is prolific those odds are way too low.

for me it's chelsea to win 2-0 as best value bet, odds are fairly low for correct score call but it is a fairly likely score could give us a good return if people back it. chelsea have scored 2 in their last 3 games and with the champions league final looming i don't see them pushing for more when they are 2 up as a win is all they can do towards their title hopes.

wize 1 · Group 1 Class Joined: 16 Aug 2007 Posts: 476

some stats really wanted to go 2-0 but vote to nil chelsea but if we want to give it a go 2-0 is ok chelsea have scored 9 goals in there last 6 games and only conceded 2.. they have had= 10 out of =18 matches finishing to nil at home Wink

and boltons away form they have had 8 loses to nil out 18 away games boltons last 6 games they have scored 7 and conceded 8....a slight worry their...... chelsea last 6 games they have won 4 of them to nil Wink

another good pointer Fingers Crossed

vote to nil chelsea 2nd

2-0

Whoosh · Group 1 Class Joined: 23 Oct 2006 Posts: 251

I hope the BotW comes from this category, and not just because it contains some long odds shots. It's the final weekend of the season and strange things can happen, a lot of choices in other categories are much too short.

That said if Ronaldo is 1.57 that should be left alone. I know he's scored thousands this season but on Wigan's pitch in what I think will be toght game we shouldn't take a price like that on anyone to score.

Chelsea are always likely and capable of winning 2-0 against anybody, against that is the fixture history in this game (see match thread - a couple of 2-2s and 5-1s), but worth considering.

On the big odds ht/ft shots I think you have to look at what you think the final outcome will be. I think Derby could beat Reading (last chance to win a Prem game and Reading v. poor at mo) and I think the Birmingham game will finish level, and I think it will be a score draw. Birmingham have had 8 of these at home so far and Blackburn have had 4 away.

So my choice is the B'ham v B'burn ht/ft.

bigmoose · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject:

Brum v B'Burn HT-FT is my BOTW.

AS i stated in the match thread:

Brum have been leading in 5 of their last 6 home games at half time. 3 of those games they went on to Draw. Both teams want the win, so Draw a very likely outcome. Brum being the home team will come out the blocks the quickest. Brum defence is sieve-like. So lead won't hold, as 3 of last 6 games!

And can i say Tipstonga was the man who first wrote up this nice little bet........... then only to go champion the woeful Derby actually winning a football match that their opponents badly need to win & they don't !
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thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2961

chelsea win to nil is a good bet for me, bolton don't have the quality to score regularly against top teams (will be found out next season once again!) and chelsea won't take this lightly.

2-0 a likely score in all fairness, and actually probably better value...but have voted for the more likely outcome here.
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Betfairalfie · At Stud Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 4847

Agree with a few here that Ronaldo's odds way too low. He will not like that Wigan pitch. The bookies are paying him the ultimate respect with such a price but value it certainly isn't. (Hopefully my words look silly once he gets the hattrick)

I'd prefer the Chelsea 2-0 correct score bet rather than the HT/FT options. Chelsea should win and not concede, so it makes sense.

But I wouldn't touch any of these with my own money. The only OLBGvBookie option that will get that dubious pleasure is Everton to draw @3.40+ on the 12X thread.