WEEK 40 : A/H Discussion and Poll

monkeytennis · Listed Class Joined: 25 Jun 2007 Posts: 35

This is real money and we currently have £1261.75 in the OLBG betting fund.

As the season has progressed the debate has become better,more informed, sensible and inciteful. Well done everyone. Some results have not gone for us and we have lost money, but lets finish with some wins and claw some money back.

We now have 4 categorys. This thread is for the A/H discussion and poll. Please add your reasoned posts and vote on which match we should go for in this category as our choice.

Remember our funds are growing and to work out the downside as well as the potential profit.

Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
Then for the final decision thread. We will be having a poll

Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3789

nerves may play into chelsea / MU games so wary of them altho both should stroll their games..can see chelsea winning about 5-0 as bolton are safe now and chelsea may want to make statement of sorts (ie win as big as possible to force UTD to win)

fulham have to win full stop and odds are better so thats the one for me

tipstonga · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject:

All these bets require to take a bank credit to beat the Bookies so I shall not vote for any of them.

good luck Win

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spider2097 · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 6:05 pm Post subject:

Better odds than the 1X2 for essentially the same bet, my vote goes with Fulham.

Whilst I can't rule out the Chelsea/Man Utd bets on the basis that "I don't think they will happen" - I think there's extremely low value in the bets due to what will be needed to be done in order for the bets to win. As already alluded to by gecko6, nerves will be crucial & both Man Utd & Chelsea might try to shut up shop once they get ahead. It's also worth bearing in mind the state of Wigan's pitch & also the fact that Bolton are never an easy side to play against.
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bottomlesspit · Group 1 Class Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 311

Seriously - I think Man U -1 at a wretched price away on a dodgy pitch against a reasonable side in a match of this importance is probably the worst bet to have made it this far all season.

I hope I have not offended anyone - but it's utter rancid rubbishness has really put a smile on my face, and I needed to share that Laughing

Quite fancy Fulham, actually, but would prefer one of the low stakes greedy options off the 'other bets' poll at this stage of the season

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4541

i think i've made the wrong choice here not really thinking about the odds.

backed Fulham but i've already said i don't think there is any value in backing Fulham to beat Pompy away from home at such low odds even though I think they will win.

My rethought vote is for Man U who should beat Wigan comfortably I think.

bottomlesspit · Group 1 Class Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 311

willieboy · Classic Winner Joined: 30 Jul 2007 Posts: 621

Pretty easy to pick from this list.....

Fulham to win-.05.....2.41

Fulham the form team and Ports gone to pot. (FA Cup!)

This is not a bad bet....but needs maximum stake!!!

(No value at all in the other choices)

Whoosh · Group 1 Class Joined: 23 Oct 2006 Posts: 256

Chelsea and Man U are too short to be chosen in this. If you think about it a 1 goal win is enough for either of them and chasing a second and coneceding an equaliser could be disastrous.

Chelsea simply need to win and hope Man Utd don't, the score isn't that relevant (although I reckon they'll beat their handicap) as they are so far behind on GD.

Man U at 1.4 is worse value than the Derby selection earlier in the season - which they only won by one (painful reminder) and Wigan are a much sterner test.

That leaves Fulham as the choice, but better options elsewhere for BotW.

bigmoose · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:08 pm Post subject:

These odds far too short. Even Fulham win looks a bit short. Down here in Portsmouth the manager & players are all making the right noises that they'll have a proper go Sunday (altho it could be talk) - Defoe wants goals, the defence wants a clean sheet going into Cup Final, the manager wants form & a performance and players are being recalled to get match sharp for Final day. (Apologies i've only just posted the Pompey news but Bank Holiday Monday has thrown me)
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thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2965

didn't realise AH odds on fulham were so much better than 1x2, 2.41 must be taken!
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gitto · Group 3 Class Joined: 02 Oct 2007 Posts: 74

Wigan are tough to beat at home and even though Manu need to win 1.4 is a joke. Chel @ 1.7 looks reasonable, they'll overpower Bolton with no game till 21st May all players should play.