gecko6 OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread...

[gecko6]

wk 1 > balance £100

[gecko6]

wk 1 >

arsenal v wba
bolton v stoke
everton v blackburn
hull v fulham
boro v spurs
sunderland v liverpool
hammers v wigan
villa v citeh
chelsea v pompey
utd v newcastle

at first glance, I will skip a lot of these and being first match there is no form.. but I always expect the newly-promoted sides to give it a go on the opening day and hull look like they could give fulham a tough game (hull 8/5)

spurs have been in cracking form pre-season including thumping roma 5-0 yesterday - bent has scored 12 goals pre-season in 6 games and bentley has already scored 3 - their game at boro could be a goalfest if they maintain this attacking approach (over 2.5 is 5/6)

liverpool could be too good for sunderland but at 8/11 and with sunderland's home form being ok that's not much value to me

pompey could put up a decent fight at chelsea... odds look long for the win (chelsea have to lose at home at some point and first game up, they could get caught cold) but the AH odds are 4/5 for pompey +1.5 which could be decent

will have a think and then come up with a bet...will be small stakes initially until the form settles

[gecko6]

boro v spurs

previous results at riverside have been
1-1 2-3 3-3 1-0 1-0 5-1 1-1 1-1 2-1 0-0 > so 4 of last 10 were overs, but 2 of last 3... plus spurs scored 3 twice in last 3 yrs...more of the same likely for me

chelsea v pompey...chelsea usually win 1-0 or 2-0 but last yr pompey got a creditable 1-1 draw > not sure if big phil wil want to send a message with a powerhouse performance on the opening day or whether pompey will let them...but this could be tight and pompey with the AH on their side could be decent...

always wary of the promoted sides so expect hull to put up a good show home to fulham...stoke may battle very hard at bolton and wba may well push arsenal all the way..can see them taking the lead then getting done 2-1 actually as i think there will be some early surprises this weekend...

bolton stoke under 2.5 appeals a lot as that looks like a 2 goal max game to me... also quite like the AH bet suggested elsewhere on bolton

hard to call everton v blackburn altho it looks a banker 1-1 on paper...

opening wk will have to be low stakes so will go 50 and of all the possible bets, none jump out so the one I think is most likely is under 2.5 bolton v stoke - last yr bolton had 10 of last 15 premier games at the reebok under 2.5 and stoke had 7 of last 10 away games under 2.5, not stunning but add the fiercely competitive nature of the teams and pressure and i can see a low-scoring game

match > bolton v stoke
bet > under 2.5 goals
odds > 4/6 (BlueSq)
stake > £50

balance > £50

good luck to all this week

[gecko6]

not a good start - stoke fell apart at the end of the first half so that bet is a loser

balance > £50

bets > 1
winning bets > 0
strike rate > 0/1 0%

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

wk 2 > added £100 to the bank

balance £150

[gecko6]

early thoughts

boro to hold liv possibly
pompey to hold utd to 0-0
city to beat west ham
botlon on AH at newcastle
spurs to lose or win 5-0



tricky wk again...checking teamswill be an idea this wk...wil prob go for city i think but nothing jumps out so probably small stakes...

[gecko6]

liverpool v boro > avoid for me as no idea what team liverpool will play with europe match in midweek...boro looking more useful than this time last season - could make it awkward therefore hard to call - only decent bet is under 2.5 for me...

city v west ham > wh seasontkt holder told me they were pants last wk - they won but didnt play well and could be city's chance to get their form turned around after an iffy start - however, city have losttheir last 2 games in the prem 4-2 and 8-1 - granted, the hammering was last game of last season but not a good sign - I was keen on this bet earlier this wk but not sure now if city can manage to win...battle of 2 average teams and hard to call, could well end up being a draw

spurs v sunderland > organised sunderland could be hard to beat altho in spurs' favour, they usually win this fixture easily - sunderland poor travellers but looking more useful this term on paper - probably worth avoiding again as no value in the home win or away side on AH

newcastle v bolton > liking the idea of bolton getting something here as newc aren't good at home...AH bet perhaps even though price isnt very tempting on bolton unfortunately - given in form can stop bolton scoring but newc dont look full of goals... unders is a good shout as well here

fulham v arsenal > simpel straigth arsenal win is the call for me..not great odds but is probably the most likely result this wk.. lot of games are hard to call but you would expect the gooners to win here, they have shown decent pre-season form with a comfortable 2-0 euro win... fulham should have done better at hull and aren't too bad at home but usually the gulf in class between them and top 4 shows

wba v everton > hard to call in all aspects

likewise stoke v villa as you never know with promoted sides at home (hull last wk) - stoke may just get a much-improved performance and villa look a good thing but its hard to keep scoring 4 goals (euro and prem) - not too much value for me

blackburn v hull > expect a blackburn win here but not much value and hard to know what to expect with hull

wigan v chelsea > comfy away win but no value..2-0 perhaps but c/scores wont feature in my OLBG thread

thus

FULHAM v ARSENAL > arsenal have won this 6 times in 7yrs scoring 15 goals to just 1 in reply in those wins - fulham did win 2-1 in nov06 > the usual result has been a 2-0 or better arsenal win - fulham play decent football but this could well play into arsenal's hands as their counter-attacking play is superb at times - being early season there is more chance of fulham playing relaxed football rather than desperately trying to stave off relegation and this againcould help the visitors

last season fulham were beaten 9 times at home which is high - they lost 3-0 to utd, arsenal, 2-0 to liverpool and 2-1 to chelsea, and gave sunderland a rare away win too > arsenal beat most of the lower-half sides last season away easily

current odds are 8/13 at best which isn't much but is the safest option this wk for me... arsenal -0.75 is 33/40 which appeals as I think they could win by 2 goals and even with a 1 goal win half the bet wins

bank > £150
selection > arsenal -0.75 AH
odds > 33/40 (Bet365)
stake > £80
bank > £70

[gecko6]

my worst pick of the summaries i gave...given did indeed stop bolton scoring and should have gone with my original early thought about m/city

ened up picking the unlikely result so another loss

long old season though

[gecko6]

briefly

arsenal > could win 5-0 or be 1-1...avoid as 50% odds dont justify 70% home win in my opinion - check newcastle plus 0.25 AH at HT @ 33/25 9see my blog!)

chelsea > fancy chelsea 2-0 but part of me is saying spurs will upset the applecart as its so unlikely it becomes likely...avoid chelsea 80% at those odds... maybe spurs at 8/1 for a laugh ?!

villa liv > avoid..hard to call bound to be quite juicy... buy bookings methinks 50% draw?

hull wigan > prob draw or wigan on AH is the call - about 50% draw for me

boro > home win..good bet 80%

sunderland > home win good bet 90%

everton pompey > prob 0-0 tricky game...shading home win so maybe worth a bet

bolton wba > likely to be tight and poss home win 60%

hammers blackburn > fancy away side at about 40% so 2/1 appeals > hammers usually win this tho and cant be that bad all the time.. curbs might rally his troops as i'm sure he/they are aware of the gossip

ok > sunderland is best bet for me... above evens is surprisingly good - they have added firepower in cisse and look fairly organised an dtight...city have been poor in 3 or 4 games and flattered to deceive a bit last wk v hammers - sunderland good at home and city's away in the league recently include 4-2 and 8-1 defeats (last season final game) - add insunderland full of confidence and city struggling in europe away on thursday and this looks a good call


bank > £170
bet > sunderland
odds > 13/10 with Paddy Power
stake > £100

bank > now £70

[gecko6]

all going pete tong but not to worry eh...

this wk > very busy so little time for full research

can see germany banging in a few at liechenstein.... thus waiting on team news... klose was 4/7 and podolski was 4/5 last night for AGS...

dont usually look at these markets but if they start then they really should be good value for scoring at some point... will probably dabble on one of these 2 but depends on team news...

[gecko6]

wk 4 > bank added with £100 so now £170

will go £110 on PODOLSKI anytime goalscorer at 8/11 Bet365)... was 4/5 previously but now teams known its dropped

[gecko6]

1-0 Germany after 21 mins with Podolski scoring so got a bet in at last

[gecko6]

bank was £60
bet return was £190
new bank is £250
wk 5 top-up £100 makes bank £350 now
strike rate > 1/4 (25%)

wk 5 > premiership

short of time so simply

man city v chelsea > CHELSEA @ 10/11 (various) has to be taken as they win this fixture most times... they are past masters at winning these sort of games 1-0... defensively so strong and city albeit with robinho will struggle to score I feel - also, city have an average looking defence with richards injured and corluka now departed

this fixture has seen 8 chelsea wins in last 9 meetings, with solitary city win 4 yrs ago

last 12 meetings between the 2 have seen 10 chelsea wins, a 0-0 and a city win > chelsea scoring 25 goals to just 1 in reply... the form is totally with the visitors and i think they will want to set down a marker to city's new owners that they might have bulging wallets but they haven't yet got the team to beat them

a strong away win for me and surprised to see the odds near evens actually... even without essien, chelsea are a formidable side and they get results even when not playing well - the wigan game being proof of that... if they click they could in by a few but I can see a 2-0 win quite easily

bet > chelsea
odds > 10/11 (various)
stake > £200
remaining bank > £150
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