Euro 2008 Qualifiers - Weds 21.11.07

[thetitan]

Belarus is probably gonna be my NAP for the night against Holland. Belarus cant qualify and Holland are already through. Holland have scored the least number of goals of the nations who have already qualified - just 14 goals in 11 matches, including a mere 1-0 against Luxembourg, who they should have really destroyed. Belarus have scored 15 overall.

More importantly, Holland need to lose this game to avoid the position of top seeds for next year, which would put them in a 'group of death'. I doubt that they'll go out to lose this match, but I wouldnt be surprised if they took their foot off the gas.

So, I think that Belarus double chance is a good shout @ evens and DNB is also great @ 3/1 in places. Price is dropping but this is still totally speculative and based on my conspiracy theories

Maxim Romashchenko is Belarus' top scorer with 4 goals and he is a huge 6/1 although I'm sure you can find better. Taking him at 18/1 (again, better odds will be available) as FGS could turn out to be a fantastic value bet. Don't really take scorecasts as a matter of rule but can definitely see some value in taking him and the Belarus 1-0 and 2-0 wins @ 100/1+ and 200/1+.

Team news - Belarus have no worries, Holland without van der Sar, van Persie, Robben, van Nistelrooy. How convenient that their experienced goalie and star striker miss this game...

Good luck
_________________
www.priceform.com

free tips, previews and analysis.

[Betfairalfie]

Good spot

avoid Group of Death ? UEFA site have no details of seeding except that Greece as holders are seeded. The Dutch know they can only win the group if Romania slip up at home to Albania which aint going to happen. Can you expand your thoughts a little as Im interested.

The Dutch will play a weakened team but I expect will still have Koevermans and Kuyt up front.

The prices are moving away from Holland as you'd expect with the team news but I (and the many Dutch people I know) would be very shocked if they lose.

[Betfairalfie]

Done some digging elsewhere but surely the argument is dented by the fact that the price for already qualified Germany is not drifting for their home game versus Wales

[thetitan]

The word is that they decide the top seedings by using a coefficient based on the group matches, so the top seeds play tougher teams (possibly the home nations I think). I'm really not sure where to find more info about this though...

I get what you're saying about Germany but they lost to Czech Republic 3-0 at home a few weeks ago, which gives the Czechs a better GD and H2H record, meaning that now they're both playing against minnows, 6 points is expected of both teams and CR will finish top of the group. Quite complex but there's a conspiracy in there somewhere! I certainly think that this match was too much of a 'coincidence' to be passed off as one!

Incidentally, Klose anytime is a great bet for the Germany game

Also you mentioned the Romania game which I wasnt aware of having any significance to be honest - maybe worth laying Romania as well?!
_________________
www.priceform.com

free tips, previews and analysis.

[hutchygers]

i heard the same info regarding the dutch game. its all to do with seeding and avoiding being in pot 1 with host nations austria&switzerland and holders greece meaning they would face a tough group if they were to win this game.

i would put a large stake on this result coming up.


here is explanation i was sent-

Holland are top ranked team in Europe at moment, only if they lose to Belarus they can they go to 2nd or 3rd. This would stop them being in Pot1 for groups in Finals, alongside Austria, Switzerland, and Greece. Big teams would much rather be in Pot 2 so they avoid the big guns.

Holland can only make this if they lose on Wednesday, and you can get about 4/1 on this

[thetitan]

cheers hutchygers, I think that the only issue here is whether Romania will set out to beat Albania or not?
_________________
www.priceform.com

free tips, previews and analysis.

[Inatimate1]

Macedonia are offered at huge odds of 7.25 to beat Israel tonight, and surely they must be worth a small amount of some form of investment. The relatively new nation has improved with each qualifying campaign, and this campaign has seen them record 4 wins from 11 games in a group with arguably 4 decent sides.
On Saturday Macedonia recorded a 2-0 home win against Croatia, whilst Israel won 2-1 or something (I think ), but both teams are now out of the running for qualification and this match won't really have any bearing on the final outcome of the group.
Last time the two met was back in June, where Israel won 2-1 in Macedonia, but had to survive an onslaught for nearly all of the second half in order to maintain their lead. If Macedonia come into this match with the same winning mentality, then they can surely leave with at least a point out of this match, and who knows what progression they may make ahead of the WC2010 qualifying campaign, but the Draw No Bet option should at least be appealing to people here...

Macedonia Draw No Bet @ 5.50

Georgia look a cracking bet @ Evns to beat a poor travelling Lithuania side in their final match of the campaign. Already with wins over the Faroe Islands and Scotland, along side a draw against Ukraine, makes the hosts home record look relatively impressive, compared to the record of their visitors on the road who have managed to pick up only 4 points on their travels, and made a difficult job of beating the "whipping boys" in the Faroes on both occasions.
Georgia will be a much sterner task for Lithuania, and I expect the home side to leave with all 3 points here.

Georgia to win @ Evns

Poland are definately not a side to ignore in their final qualifier against Serbia and have to be taken @ 5/1 to win the match in my view.
A win for the Poles will guarentee them the top spot in the group and all the bragging rights that come with it, especially with Portugal being the side who are aiming to take the top spot away from them...
Serbia have had an up & down campaign, and a run of 3 draws and a loss earlier on in the group has now put them very much out of the tournament barring a miraculous win for Finland and two wins on the bounce against Poland and "glorious nation of" Kazakhstan (Niiice). Poland have been a strong side, with only Armenia and a home game to Finland being matches where they have left with nothing.
Serbia have lost only twice in their campaign, both away to sides they should have got at least a point from, in Belgium and Kazakhstan, but they were lucky to hold on when hosting Portugal as their goal in the second half took an absolute pounding, but somehow they kept the ball away from the goal.
Poland, I would expect, should have a relatively strong side out for this match, and as proved throughout this campain, they are no pushovers, and 5/1 is definately a cracking value on the away win here...

Poland to win @ 5/1
_________________
Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition
3rd in Cheltenham Festival Competition 2008

[Ricky]

thetitan wrote:

[thetitan]

Thanks for that info Ricky. For me, the fact that Romania lost to Bulgaria at the weekend makes this whole business even more fishy - they're tied on points with Holland now...so whoever gets the most points tonight will go top of the group. If both teams get the same result, then Romania will go top due to their superior H2H record.

It will be fascinating to see how this pans out tonight, I'm still uncertain about which bets to place for the Romania game although I wouldn't mind laying a Romania/Holland double

Incidentally, we have an identical situation in Group D with Czech Republic and Germany. This is where the conspiracy theories originated, when Germany lost 3-0 to the Czechs a few weeks ago. Tonight, Germany are at home to Wales and the Czechs are away to Cyprus.

Cryptically, this is what Germany coach Joachim Low says:

"To be honest, though, I don't think the Czech Republic will win in Cyprus."

I'm going to have a speculative back of Cyprus on the AH, they're not the worst side at home in any case.
_________________
www.priceform.com

free tips, previews and analysis.

[stubbertime]

with these conspiracy theories, does that mean england will not want to top the group however croatia will want to lose :s... very confussed on betting front tonight, any help
James

[kilkennycat]

Ok my banker tonight is a double

Finland U21 (4 wins out of 4) v Lithuania U21 (1 draw 5 defeats)

Germany v Wales

Pays around 1.57

Good luck

[penypicker]

To be honest I can't see any of these coming out to be true, and surely you'd rather be in pot 1 and have 1 good team in your group meaning that the team will take points off everyone else, thus making your job easier?
I can't see past a holland, romania, germany, czech, russia, isreal, italy, sweeden and norway wins tbh.

Holland- at home, belaruas aren't exactly an amazing team, they might have scored plenty but thats not saying a lot, as holland have just been shcoking so far overall, expect them to start their campaign tonight.

Romania-Better team overall, last game at the stadium and wanting to out do european giants holland.

Germany- Wales are missing plenty of players, and I see germany with a comfortable 1-0 or 2-0 win with out tiring them selves out.

Czech- the hardest of the games to call due to them being away against a decent team but the czech are one of the best footballing teams in europe and have tactical ability that surpasses many other.

Russia-Obviously wanting a position to take england out if they get a chance oh and the fact andorra are as bad as satan himself.

Isreal- Decent win over Russia is likely to have added to their confidence against a still pretty poor team.

Italy- Against the Faroe's, not even worth telling you why.

Sweeden- They'll be needing this one to stay in (and send out NI) so thats enough reason for them to win.

Norway- Malta, again, enough said.