Euro 2008 Qualifiers - Weds 21.11.07

[thetitan]

lol sorry for any confusion, I think I'm just about getting my head around it. If anyone's serious about considering this further, these two resources are really great:

http://www.bloxster.net/rdasilva/39757/A+game+of+three+halves%3F.html

http://www.bloxster.net/rdasilva/39724/2008+European+Championship+-+Seedings+for+finals.html


Particularly helpful is the 'what if?' post in the comments section in the 2nd link.

So, to clarify...if you were a coach and you knew you were through to Euro 2008, and you had a chance to influence who you played, then surely you'd take it? This has not been an uncommon occurrence in sport and I would not be surprised to see a few 'shock' results today. Hopefully we can predict these 'shocks'.


Another interesting point - Croatia found out they had qualified during HT of their match against Macedonia at the weekend. Slaven Bilic said that they decided to play freely, knowing it was basically inconsequential...they went on to lose 2-0, thus reducing their coefficient and potentially avoiding a group with Austria, Switzerland and Greece - the 'Group of Death' which I have been referring to. Even though Austria and Switzerland aren't too great, they will have massive home support which historically counts for a lot - just look at South Korea in WC 2002.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[penypicker]

Austria have been terrible, jesus their own people are wanting to do a peition to pull them out so they don't get embaressed, Switzerland are poor at best and Greece aren't a worry, they were lucky when they won it (remember porto won the c.league the same year...just an odd footballing year)

[thetitan]

We were saying the same things about South Korea (and Greece!) before they played at home...home nations often tend to over-perform at major tournaments, and I wouldn't bet against Austria or Switzerland reaching the semi-finals next year. No coach in their right mind would want to play a home team.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[penypicker]

Didn't SK get some erm...perculiar, decisions go their way in a few games? (the italy one stands out). Greece just played defend, defend, defend im not sure the austrian coach has it in either him or his players to do that.

[thetitan]

I know, but that's what comes with being a 'home' team - strange things happen.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[penypicker]

actually don't the pots/seeds go like this
4 teams in pot 1 (top euro ranked*, the 2 hosts and the reigning champions)
so in pot 1 you could have
Netherlands
Austria
Switzerland
Greece

In pot 2 you'd have 2,3,4,5 the ranked eufa teams
Which from a quick look at the fifa rankings would actually be:
France
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
Spain

In pot 3 you have the next 4 highest ranked to qualify:
Portgual (if they qualify)
Cezch's
Croatia
England (If they qualify)

In pot 4 you have the n last 4 qualifiers:
Romania
Poland
Sweeden (or NI)
The second qualifier from group C

Then when the groupds are made you have 1 from each pot in each group
meaning in group a you might get:
Austria
Spain
Croatia
Sweeden

*Italy are actually the highest ranked FifA team as off the start of September with the Netherlands currently 5th so unless the co-efficients are really screwed up I can't understand this at all.

[thetitan]

OK now I'm even more confused..

The coefficients are just the points from the last qualifying campaign, in addition to the current tally. Then divide 50 by this total and you get your coefficient.

What you've said about the potential groups makes total sense as well.

OK, I think I get it now...

The team with the top coefficient goes in the pot with Austria, Switzerland and Greece (NOT the same group as I originally stated). There are 4 pots, and in each pot, you have a 1st seed, 2nd seed, 3rd seed, and 4th seed.

In theory, it would be an advantage to be a top seed as you'd avoid other top seeds in your group. However, for some reason, UEFA have decided to put the home teams and Greece as top seeds. By a quirk of fate, Greece won Euro 2004 without being too strong, and so 'better' teams (Germany, France, Italy etc etc) have been bumped down three places.

So, if you're a coach, you'd rather be playing a team from pot 1 than pot 2 - for this to happen, you have to be in pot 2 yourself.

Although, there is bound to be one strong team in pot 1 (probably out of Holland, Germany, Italy and the like) - this means that even if you play it sly and 'gear' the results tonight so that you end up in pot 2, there's still a 1 in 4 chance of you getting a tough team.

Conclusion - a smart coach would play the percentages and try to end up in pot 2.

Here's the post on the site I mentioned before:


=====================
team - win - draw - lose

Sui - doesn't matter
Aut - doesn't matter
Gre - doesn't matter
Hol - 2.54 - 2.46 - 2.42

Cro - 2.41 - 2.32 - 2.27
Ger - 2.42 - 2.25 - 2.17
Ita - 2.36 - 2.27 - 2.23
Cze - 2.33 - 2.25 - 2.21

Eng - 2.32 - 2.23 - 2.18*
Por - 2.27 - 2.19 - **
Swe - 2.27 - 2.18 - 2.14*
Rom - 2.25 - 2.17 - 2.13

Pol - 2.25 - 2.17 - 2.13
Fra - 2.18 - 2.09 - 2.05
Esp - 2.18 - 2.09 - 2.05
Tur - 1.96 - 1.88* - 1.83*

* = might not qualify with this result
** = will not qualify with this result

================

So the key matches here are the Holland and Germany ones. If Holland lose and Germany win, then I think Germany go through to pot 1 on higher goal difference. Germany's match kicks off later than Holland's match, and so they may wait til HT to decide their strategy.

Hypothetically, if Holland lose (fingers crossed!), then Germany need to avoid winning to avoid being in pot 1. So, if Germany realise that Holland have lost during their HT break, we could suddenly see a shock Wales goal or two. Definitely one for in-play.

A bit long-winded but I definitely get it now...let me know if anybody has any q's and I'll *try* to explain!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[penypicker]

So italy and france (the 1 and 2 according to fifa at the moment) cannot possibly be in pot 1?

BTW even the bbc can't get their heads around it so i fear us poor mortals have no chance

[thetitan]

I think that's right mate - France and Italy won't be in pot 1, whatever happens. I don't get how that works, as France won all of their games in their last qualifying campaign. It must take into account something else as well, but alas, this is how it stands...have texted BBC for clarification
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[manchestermike]

Chunk of bets tonight but brief again.

Basically, Holland may not want to top their group for seeding reasons... if they don't win then Germany may not want to later either...

I also fancy Croatia to get something tonight, the odds on England are stupidly low, only a fool would fail to oppose, win, lose or draw... the odds are wrong... fingers crossed for the visitors tonight...

The Czechs really need a win to try and stay in seeding pot 2...

I'm also going for the old favourite on the goals in Spain v N. Ireland. It finished 3-2 in the return match and with N. Ireland needing a win to stand any chance of qualifying they will keep attacking no matter what... 3 goals is money back, anything else is profit...

2pts Czech Rep to beat Cyprus @ 1.95
1pt Belarus to beat Holland @ 4.3
1.5pts Croatia to beat England @ 9.4
2pts England v Croatia Draw @ 3.5
2pts Croatia to be leading at HT @ 7.8
0.7pts Croatia to win 0-1 @ 22
0.4pts Croatia to win 0-2 @ 60
0.2pts Croatia to win 0-3 @ 220
0.5pts Croatia to win 1-2 @ 32
0.2pts Croatia to win 1-3 @ 120
0.5pts N. Ireland to beat Spain @ 10
3pts Spain v N. Ireland 3+ goals @ 1.8
1pt Spain v N. Ireland 4+ goals @ 3
0.5pts Spain v N. Ireland 5+ goals @ 5.93
0.5pts Spain v N. Ireland 6+ goals @ 13.44

[fastal72]

Yep basically this seeding thing really comes down to two games.

Belarus v Holland and Germany v Wales.

If Holland win OR draw they will go into the top seed pot with Austria Switzerland and Greece - end of story and it won't matter what Germany do against Wales.

However if Holland lose then let the conspiracy theories start flying! I for one will be laying Germany immediately if the Dutch lose! Already backed Belarus against Holland at 5.

Good luck to all!

[betking]

Unless I'm missing something.......

Whether Holland win/lose/draw doesnt matter if Romania win, right? Because if Romania win, then Holland can't finish top of the group anyway.

Well Romania are leading the mighty Albania at HT, and if it stays this way, Romania win the group. So any conspircay theories regarding Holland go out the window.

Is this right?
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Stoke and Hull better stock up on Red Bull then, as its the only way they'll get off the floor next season.....