suggestion: OLBG KING-TIPSTERS TABLE

betking · Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:53 pm Post subject:

Like JC hit upon, when it comes to strike rate, its only relevant when you see the odds being bet on.

A 33% strike rate sounds poor, but if the prices are all around, say, 20/1, then the 22% SR doesnt matter. Using quick maths (feel free to correct me)..
100 tips
33 wins
price 20/1 each tip
LSP +£593

However, if the odds are always around even, the strike rate has to be extremely high, as a 75% SR at evens....
100 tips
75 wins
each tip is evens
LSP +£50

So strike rate matters - but you cant base a decision on SR alone.

jeremiah catskill · Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:55 pm Post subject:

man o bong · Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject:

On my varying selections from fav to outsiders, i cover a wide range of prices (WIN ONLY), 33% is actualy my target strike rate for backing. Generally if i can hit 29% i know i will be making profit from past results anyway,

If i can hit 33%, although i wont be retired, it will be a good month
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betking · Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:08 pm Post subject:

I wasnt meaning "33% is poor" from a logical standpoint, just that if you offered the average man on the street a system with a 33% strike rate, he'd laugh in your face.

man o bong · Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject:

Yeah, it would be easier to offer up a 96% strike rate system then

Probabkly easier to offer a Lay system as the SR sounds that much more impressive
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Roger Green · Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:09 am Post subject:

Gentleman ( and ladies of course) please forget about Strike rates ( they are used by football managers), ROI etc....it is all about PROFITS at level stakes...after nearly 30 years of serious betting ( s*** I am old ) it is about making money...level stakes ( or you distort the picture ) and long term...it really is that sensible...I know a dozen guys that have made a serious living doing this for years ( I am hanging on to their shirttails !..... but above all, you need DISCIPLINE>>>DISCIPLINE>>>DISCIPLINE....not very clever to have £5 to win on a 20/1 winner and £ 500 to win on a 2/1 loser....sounds basic, but I promise you it is the key to making this game pay.Good Luck

BoozyBeggar · Group 2 Class Joined: 17 Nov 2007 Posts: 184

Roger,

What's the difference between ROI and LSP?

Strike rates, I agree, aren't a great stat on their own.

Inatimate1 · Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:02 am Post subject:

I will explain the other way round for you BoozyBeggar...
Level Stakes Profit (LSP) - Total profit you would have made if you staked £1 on every one of the tipster's tips.

Return on Investment (ROI) - This is different because rather than show a monetary value of what profit you would have earned, +£30, it shows you what percentage of profit you would have earned.

Example in it's simplest form. Say a tipster made £3,000 profit in a month, from 30 winners & 30 losers at £100 stakes @ 2/1. Now their LSP would be £30, as they have earned +£30 from their tips.
But from my calculations, the Return on Investment would have been 50%....
You would have had to stake £6,000 to get back £9,000 and win £3,000 in total. So your investment will have increased by 50% at the end of it all...

It differs from LSP in that it does take into account alternating stakes.

You can have a positive LSP and a negative ROI. Two £50 winners @ Evns, and a losing £200 bet will give a negative ROI, but a positive LSP (+£1).

And also the opposite can occur. £500 winner @ Evns, then 9 £50 losers would give an LSP of -£8, but the ROI would be positive, (£1000-£950)/(£950) = 0.053 or 5.3% ROI.

Hope this clears things up for you Win

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BoozyBeggar · Group 2 Class Joined: 17 Nov 2007 Posts: 184

Thanks Inatimate.

I think I must have been drunk when I posted. I could have figured this out for myself if I'd been willing to think, but your explanation is excellent.

PROO · Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject:

jonski · Handicapper Read My Blog! Joined: 29 Feb 2008 Posts: 10

Im very new here so you can all tell me to go do one if you like.

But did i really read that some posters are saying they place very few real bets and count themselves as tipsters.

Sorry all but if I am making enemies so be it, got to say what I think.
Anyone who thinks they bet, tip and behave betting wise when its not real as they would when its real money, your money, is fooling themselves.
We can all be brilliant or not as the case may be when the pressures off.

The whole point of a tipsters being a good tipster who should be followed is because they walk the walk as well as talking the talk.

Putting £50 or £100 of your money on a nag or team is totally different to pretending. You don't bet, behave or discriminate at all the same when you are playing at it.

All my tips I have actually bet on.

Frankly Im stunned by that remark, it devalues the site for me.

Shall I get my coat ?

PROO · Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:40 pm Post subject:

You are absolutelly right!!!
This is why I suggedsted such a filter that combines all the parameters.
The point is not to argue about strike rate.

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