Looking at racing information form etc

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4762

Sorry to repost something but my post hasn't had a response when put in the days racing thread so i guess I should create a specific one.

may be asking about something that is already on here but if not does anyone know where I can find such information.

I'd like to have a bit of a go at tipping horses to either win or lose or at least get a better idea of them but don't really understand all the ratings, classes, different types of races etc.

I've just been having a little go using the masseys stats today to see if I could gleam anything and am very pleased to say I just picked the winner on the 16:05, I did this based on it finishing no lower than 4th in it's last 6 races, 3 of which were winners and 3 of which (2 of the winners) had Paull Mollony on board who is the jockey today. they had all been at the same distance as this race.

As such I felt 8/1 was too high.

Looked like a poor selection as I watched the odds rifle out to 90/1! Then stormed back in and beat the favourite at the end.

This thing is I didn't understand why Gentle John was favourite, at a guess being younger has something to do with it but it has only run 4 races and only won 1. It also hasn't run any chases.

Until I know better what the differnet races are and how comparable results from them are I can't really predict anything too easily!

man o bong · Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:26 pm Post subject:

I think the reason you may not have had a reply as yet Franco is because of the following.

It's a massive question that starts right at grass roots, so the answer would really be a couple of pages long at least.

In the easiest terms the better the BHB rating the better the horse, (according to the official handicapper)

You should look at each horse individually, to see how it has performed over the distance and in compamy (class of race) it is going on the day. Also take note of the official going, you should be looking for an animal that can act on the surface it will be racing today

You can delve further in if you like and look at field sizes, what type of track it is. Is it flat or undulating, left or right handed, wide or narrow,

There are a multitude of variable to consider,

The best advice i can give at this early stage for you, is to have a pley around for a few months paper trading on what you thnk you are spotting, and as always record every bet that you are choosing. Then go back filter through and the trends within your selections should start guiding you to a direction for a selection process.

You mention that you couldnt work out how a certain horse was fav for a race, remember that the odds are compiled by a mere human being too and can be affected by weight of money from like minded individuals. I personally never let a price affect my selection process, in fact its possibly the last thing i look at to see what kind of return i might expect as i've already decided it is the winner.

Anyway enough to be going on with for now mate

GOOD LUCK
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jeremiah catskill · Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:45 pm Post subject:

Like Man O Bong says - horse racing knowledge is not an easy field to just jump into.

There are a multitude of variables & "secret codes" that need time to unravel.

The way I would attack is to limit myself to one type of race - I'd suggest handicap chases as you are dealing with the horses with most form & most things to digest.

I would then pick one race a day ( maybe the most expensive prize money) & analyse that.

Ask questions - maybe we can set up a thread which helps novices ask "silly" questions wheby anybody can answer.

If I was looking at different variables - & this is my opinion only & far from fact - I would place them in this approx order

If the going is anything but good I would at first glance look to see if the horse has proven abilty to go on that ground. It's a common myth imho that a horse can race to its peak on different types of going

That will knock a third of the field out in one quick go

Secondly I would look at recent form. By that I don't mean did they win as a 2nd in a good race is far better than a win in a weak race.

Thirdly I'd look at the race conditions - ie. Course - has it performed well here in the past? Distance - by reading the comments you will get a feel if a horse is fading at this distance (too far) or it gets going to late ( needs further) & Class.

Class is one of the key factors I look at . I firmly believe that most horses have a level ( like footballers who look good in the Championhip but don't cut it at a higher level)

I feel if a horse has its going, distance & no negatives about the course. If its down in class but is still running at a decent level of form - then I'm interested . The down in class bit is the key as this happens usually when it can't quite compete at a higher level. Most punters see a few poor runs & presume its off form BUT I believe its just running in a class to high

Finally look at the price - if you strongly fancy it & its 6/1 - Bingo. If you feel it may win but its 2/1 - then maybe leave it

Like I say a very quick overview of my methods & many may disagree but it works for me & THAT is what counts.

Find your angle - if it works - stick with it

Good Luck!

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4762

cheers for the info guys.

laayss that's kind of what i did today, though i was trying to predict a winner i was then looking and wondering why a particular horse was favourite.

Say horses that have no previous form, how do they get a low price, is it because they are from a good trainer, good jockey or is there other information about the horses other than racing information?

a couple of stupid questions.

grades of races, is the higher the number the better or lower?

Novice Chase
Novice Hurdle
Hurdle
Handicap
Sellers Handicap

can you explan some of these. Arse chases when there are no jumps? I'm guessing novice is for young or horses new to racing though i noticed in the form some seemed to have gone from regular races back to novice.

Sellers as far i'm aware are for horses that people are looking to sell? yes?

is a horses record on a hurdle particularly relevant to how it might do in a chase and vice versa?

I guess it's a bit like adding hurdles to athletics, some people do very wel on both, eg. Michael Johnson who was a start over flat and hurdle running and obviously you need pace to do both so bein fast is a good start for hurdles, then it's down to jumping qualities.

Some horses don't race that often, is form from a couple of years ago likely to mean much, surely a lot can happen in that time, so if a horse hasn't raced all year it'd be difficult to back it.

hopefully my questions aren't too silly, but i'm sure the answers from those more knowledgeable could be useful to more than just myself!

Chadlad · Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:20 am Post subject:

Franco,

HolyRomanEmpire · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 04 Jun 2007 Posts: 1955

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4762

thanks for most helpful responses guys.

I agree an info thread would be good, I'm someone that knows nothing as you can see yet do lots of trading and betting on horses. knowing the improtant details about the races would put me in a better position.

for all the information on here I think there is quite a bit of assumed knowledge on horse racing so it'd be good to fill in the gaps for beginners.

barney21 · Group 2 Class Joined: 01 Feb 2007 Posts: 192

Fairfranco go to the "Patternform" site this will give you most of what you need and then some,what it can,t give you is that little something extra that possibly only comes if ever at all thro, a life time of punting .

good luck barney21

fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4762

on the racingpost going information it says the following:

GOING: Soft (Goingstick 6.4)

what does the goingstick bit mean?

bakerboy · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Jan 2007 Posts: 54

The goingstick is a stick they put in the ground 2 find out what the going is.I think it goes up 2 about 14.Correct me if i'm wrong so 6.4 as it says is soft.The going ranges from hard to heavy.hope i've explained it right. Smile

jwoody · Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 11:41 am Post subject:

In regards to the going at big race meetings, I rarely trust the 'official' going report produced by the clerk of the course, there have been in depth studies which have found that the going is declared as good far too often. There's a valid reason for this, the clerks of the course have a resposibility to the racecourse to attract as many horses as possible to the race meetings and it's not unheard of that the clerk of the course provides a going description that proves to be inaccurate.

Certainly in foreign countries, especially France, I certainly would'nt trust their going descriptions because they are invariably incorrect more frequently. The french simply don't have a clue how to use the tools to properly read the going.

I miss out on a few good bets on the first day of big race meetings because I'm not sure what the going is and therefore don't have a bet, but then I'm sure I have stopped myself from making some bad bets because I have'nt allowed myself to be mislead by the going report.

For me, I may abstain from betting on the first day of a big meeting if I have ground concerns, but after I have checked out the race times for day 1 of the meeting, I have a much more accurate idea of what the underfoot conditions are really like. If the horses are racing much slower than standard time and the soft ground horses are finishing in the frame, I'm inclined to believe the going is soft, if the race times are fast and the firm ground horses are reaching the frame then I assume the ground is riding firm. There have been many cases where the clerk of the course says the ground is soft but in reality it was actually firm, I kid you not.

I do believe that the Turftrax going sticks are the way forward, we just need to educate the clerks of the courses and many other people who work in the industry to make horse racing a much more transparent and punter friendly sport.

Horse racing is far too grey in my opinion, there should be no need for this thread, I'm certain people in the footie forum never ask, which league is better, the premiership or the unibond, or, what's the difference between the FA cup and the UEFA cup.

Excellent thread Win

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fairfranco · At Stud Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 4762

another thing.

the handicap, the handicap's given is that in pounds, kilos or what?

and how significant would you say it is?

i just picked a winner based on form and ground that was 6/1 and 5th favourite of a field of 7. i'm guessing this was due to it's handicap.

can someone tell me how the handicap is worked out and weather any of the sites will tell you how much a horse was handicaped on historical results? I don't see any mention of it on Adrian Massey but I may be wrong!