Looking at racing information form etc

[martinallen72]

[martinallen72]

[martinallen72]

[BigMac McKenna]

Hi, my question is regarding headgear. Can first time visors/tounge straps/cheekpieces etc. be considered as a possitive or a negative.
Thanks
Bm

[man o bong]

Generally, i dont suppose the stable really know how the horse is goign to perform in an actual race until the race itself.

i guess they may have tried it at home and foiund it helps the horse settle and concentrate more, but until it comes to the actual race situation it would be pretty much guesswork

for the record, i rarely take any notice of head gear unless the horse in question has shown form with it, then not had it for a spell running below that which it did with it, and then reappears with it back on.

That was a tough sentance, i hope its understood
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[princecap]

To add to what MoB has pointed out:

[Billy121only]

The Importance of Taking a Good Price.

I am sure we all go shopping and we rarely get to the checkout without first knowing what the price is, whether it’s a pint of milk or a wide screen TV. If you bet at Starting Price (SP) then you are doing just that. You are asking someone to just let you have whatever they think, no matter how much of a rip-off that may be.

The SP was once the way that the majority of bets were settled. However, over the past few decades, the off-course betting industry has seen some pretty significant changes. I am old enough to remember betting tax of 10% which was reduced and subsequently abolished. Other major changes include the internet and online betting, spread betting and of course the biggest single change – The Betting Exchange. Betfair has had a massive impact in all kinds of ways and will continue to do so. Most of the changes have benefited the punter in his quest for success and it has never been easier to make a profit from betting on horses; but there are still pitfalls that need to be avoided.

The biggest enemy to making a go of things is to bet at SP. I NEVER bet at SP anymore. If for some strange reason I have no other option, I will leave the bet rather than accept the modern SP. As a professional gambler, I am telling you that to make a living at SP is South West of impossible.

Why the big downer on SP betting? Well, 5 reasons immediately come to mind.

1) The SP return has always served to keep high street bookies in cigars and that is not destined to change. The prices are such that the man in the street has not a hope of making a long-term profit unless he is extremely good at selecting his bets. Even supposing he is, were he to embrace the other options open to him then he would make a much greater profit.

2) In the past, the opening show on-course was often the first time that prices were available. This meant that the on-course bookie was suitably nervous and so opened his book cautiously and moved the prices out gradually. It would have been very rare for the SP % not to have been lower than the opening show %. Modern day, this is not the case. Early prices are available on every race by breakfast time and even earlier on Betfair. This means that when the on-course bookie has a lot of information on which horses are fancied, how the market has developed before he opens his book. It is therefore reasonable to expect that there will be little overall difference in the opening show book % and the SP %, regardless of the individual fluctuations. What happens in MOST races these days, is that the SP % is higher than the opening show %. Often 4 or 5 horses are shortened whilst 1 or maybe 2 drift. There is no plausible excuse for this and the SP must be avoided. I will provide some sample data on this at a later date but if you watch the market from the opening show to the SP on a few races, you will soon see what an absolute travesty the SP is.
3) The way the SP’s are reported has changed a number of times over the years. A few years ago, a new way of reporting SP’s was introduced that returned much fairer SP’s for the punter. Predictably, the off-course bookies were unhappy and convinced the powers that be to alter the way SP’s were returned to ensure that they made a much bigger margin. Big Mac highlighted this with his usual vigour but the ‘unjust and unfair’ system is still being used today.

4) Bookmakers can manipulate the SP quite easily at the smaller tracks where the on-course market is not overly strong. We are back to the ‘I give you my money – you just decide how much to give me back if I win’ situation!

5) As I touched on earlier – even if you can make a profit at SP – this profit would be very much greater if you had shopped around and taken a better price.

So, what can we do?

1) At the very least, ask your bookmaker for ‘Opening Show’. This alone will guarantee a bigger return long term in the current climate.

2) Open an account with Betfair. This will mean that you can take Betfair SP, a new innovation that means that the book % will be on average 105% including commission charges and you can hopefully beat even this by taking a price pre-race. Betfair is an immensely powerful product but to the newcomer it can be a little daunting. The author is a Betfair Accredited Trainer and is therefore qualified and authorised to train individuals or groups on all aspects of Betfair.

3) Add http://www.oddschecker.com to your favourites. This website is free and not only does it show current prices from a whole host of bookmakers, it also provides easy to understand visual information on the market movements of each horse. Open as many accounts as you can. This will pay you back in the long run when you can take the best odds, whichever bookmakers is offering them.

4) Learn to assess when a horse’s price is going to drift, and when to take the price immediately. This is an acquired skill and of course it is impossible to ensure you always get the best price available, but reading the market will give you a significant advantage. Betfair is a huge help in this area with graphs showing price movements and trading volumes etc. There are also further third party software packages that will effectively bet for you, that however is for another day.

Just a couple of final thoughts – The bigger the field, the bigger the gulf in value between the industry SP and the Betfair SP. Similarly, the bigger the price, then on average the bigger the difference. 33/1 shots quite regularly are available at prices in excess of 100/1 on Betfair!

To provide some evidence of my opinion - below is shown the opening show vs starting price on all 3 afternoon meetings yesterday. The last line at each meeting is the average. Note that in every single race; the SP % was greater than the opeining show. This is now normal.

Nottingham
115 117
118 126
121 126
115 120
115 119
114 125
118 127
116.57 122.85

Lingfield
112 119
112 118
112 118
115 127
116 124
111 124
113 121.66

Chester
112 118
111 116
117 121
118 120
120 123
123 130
116.83 121.33
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Happy the man paid for his hobby......

[Betfairalfie]

Nice post Billy. I would of thought that the opening shows in most races was higher % as on course bookies may be playing it cagey. But not something I tested before as its largely irrelevant to my methods.

Glad to see BF SPs get your blessing though. A useful addition to the armoury there, as is their if not matched choose SP or KEEP (go in-play) facility.

Be Lucky

[drjohn3]

Billy121only.......nice peace ......i am in full agreement with you,
its geting harder for me to have a GOOD bet now,( on1 horse)over the last year ,i have seen to many horses that are to short .its really swung to far in the BOOKMAKERS favour........in any race ,every day!! i might have to it apply a change my" mind set"......and start "laying".but ido like to have a pop at reasonable odds........on a horse winning.....value has gone out the
game, i bet with Stan James....at least they guarantee all prices
up to the off!!! but ALL horses are backed now ,with no easing of others
so take a price ,dont go S.P.....go with "stan the man james" is my
only addvice or Betfair>>>> doc
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"Team OLBG" work together...win together ...
......doc

[functionscn1]

Greetings
Anyone heard of Tipping Legends (Jeremiah Catskill and Roger Green)?
Need a good tipping service and going on their reputations from this site thought this one would be worth subscribing to.
Rgs

[turfline]

Value=Profit= £.......Profit=Value=£....Value is Profit when Profit is made.

But value is lost if Profit is not made, its what fills the tank up that is value, to compare value with past values does not mean when making a profit that it was not as valuable as past values, after all money has allways been the same its just that its value has increased in value, after all what may not be value to one may be value to an other. Remember value is Profit Always, if some one says to you they had a value bet and no profit was made then there was no value, what most percieve as value is laying out the least amount of money on a bet and getting the best odds available and seeing those decrease in size and reaping the rewards of your investment and seeing the odds returned at a lower level than your returns that is all well and good but that is a very hard scenario to maintain, it is like going fishing and always looking for the big catch, they say little fish are sweet, so i come back to the Tank, Pofit is keep filling your tank and thats value, everthing that is priced up has value but knowing what is value is the key, to me its Profit and filling up the tank Longterm.