Looking at racing information form etc

[Billy121only]

The trainer form can be significant. In a handicap you are looking for which horses may run slightly better or worse than their mark and trainer form is a factor in this.

Milton Bradley has endured a losing run lasting many months yet there are still plenty of folk prepared to back his horses. Howard Johnson recently was a high profile trainer out of form. In the latter case, the horses had suffered a collective allergy caused by a batch of hay. Of course, he came back to form with a bang at the festival but prior to that his horses were ripe for laying. Jonjo O'Neil's horses have not been quite right for a long time either. James Knight of Coral's hit the nail on the head in the Racing Post recently when he said that all the stables runners should be taken on at the moment.

On a more positive note, when a stable hits form for whatever reason, the horses often collectively run slightly above their mark. Not all of them of course but certain trainers enjoy prolonged runs of form followed by a quiet spell. During the run of form, the horses will tend to rise in the handicap and there comes a point where they need to start to drop before the next form run and things go quiet. Derek Shaw is a good example of this. When Milton Bradley regains some form, he will have some very well handicapped horses running. Some trainers such as Paul Nicholls are usually in good form all through the season but even then, the stables horses all had their flu jab together and ran quiet for a couple of weeks.

Jockeys undoubtedly make a difference but it is not always easy to predict to what extent. The recent farce in the 4 runner apprentice race should remind us all to be cautious about in-experienced jockeys. This race was won and lost entirely on the jockey! On the flat then timing is important and some jockeys are better at timing their run than others. In the bigger handicaps where things are ultra-competitive, having a top jockey can make the sh hd difference between winning and losing. Over the jumps, strength is more important. Keeping a tired horse going after a 3 mile slog in the mud takes strength and AP McCoy has few peers.

One important thing to note, sometimes horses are over-bet because of the jockey. I think we saw that earlier in the year with the excellent Kirsty Milczarek. She is an excellent rider and deserves all the credit she receives but because the media picked up on her because she is a pretty young female apprentice with a catchy nickname; there were a few weeks where her horses started shorter than they should have done.

Also, some trainers are better at bringing horses along gradually. Some have them blazing as 2-y-o's and some consider that 2-y-o's should be looked after until they are 3. Mark Johnston, Luca Cumani train their horses to stay longer distances where some trainers train the horses they have for sprinting. Some jockeys are excellent from the front (remember Steve Cauthen) and others excel on hold up horses (George Baker).

Overall, the factors are just part of the jigsaw puzzle and there is not a simple way of assessing the trainer and jockey but with experience you learn to read the factors on the day and use them to your advantage.

Best of Luck, Billy
_________________
Happy the man paid for his hobby......

[princecap]

Cheers Billy, that was really informative.

Since I am just starting, I am having trouble picking up races and doing a form-based analysis. I guess I will have many more questions, and its good to know that people are here to help. So here are some more:

Q. What is the difference b/w Maidens and Handicap races? Example, if I am trying a form based analysis on a horse about to run in a maiden race, and if he has only ran handicap races before this, would it count against him?

Q. For a new horse, how do people rate their chances?

Q. For a returning horse, how do people rate their chances. I remember a 4 horse race @ Kempton I think, a couple of days ago, where an outsider @ 20/1 won, beating two near faves @ evens. This horse had been out for over 6 months.


I have a lot more questions, but was wondering if it would be possible for everyone to consider a single race and analyse it together, so that I can try and gauge what factors people take into account while picking up winners..

[Billy121only]

[princecap]

Cheers for the answers Billy, and yea, I can understand its a big ask, definitely. Any information about these things are appreciated, so I shall be waiting to read more whenever you get time to put up such information.

Still, could it be ideal to make a thread, post a race information and link there and various experienced punters give their views about the race there, not just you ofc; the more the merrier. I have read various selections and reasonings people give for that, but it would be better to have a wider perspective of things so that I can try and understand and implement things better. Hope you get my drift...

[Billy121only]

Absolutely Prince. The beauty of the game is that it is impossible to master. Each time I smile to myself that my analysis and selection has been proved correct; I know that more than likely the next race will pan out not as I expected but one of the other OLBG posters will have read things correctly!
_________________
Happy the man paid for his hobby......

[princecap]

As Dammo kindly pointed out, I will stick to this thread, hoping for an extensive discussion

As previously mentioned, I am pretty new to horse-racing, and find it really interesting to assess form and make predictions accordingly.

So anyways, I was hoping we can try and look a single race and consider all aspects that make or break our selections. I guess it would be prudent to start somewhere, lets say the 1735 Kempton Class 5 (4yo) handicap.

7 runners, and by my calculations, I am finding it quite tricky to differentiate between these horses since this seems to be a close race. The runners are:
Outlandish, Hatton Flight, Wheelavit, Crazy bear, Our Kes, The Carlton Cannes and Miss Pebbles. I recognize a few names in there, particularly Outlandish, who was a runner up by a good 16 lengths in its latest race.

To me, this race is very close since most of these horses have been performing ok-ish recently. It seems that most of them have either tasted 1st/ Runner up or are running in a class below from their previous run.

Furthermore, bookies seem to be holding The Carlton Cannes in high regards, and somehow, my selection criteria puts it in the penultimate position. Is there something important that I am missing?

The point really is, how would you go about looking at this race.

Danke!

[edmondsj]

Not sure where to put this but hopefully someone can help.

With the flat season starting where do you find draw stats, if theres a bias for each course etc.?

Thanks for any help

[princecap]

A couple of questions, hopefully someone can answer:

1. Is there a website to compare two horses and find out if they ever ran together in a race? If not, what is the best way to look for this? Extensive searching?

2. It is my understanding that sometimes, form analysis can be deceptive. For example, based on form, I could see a couple of horses easily winning in their respective racing. However, non-favs won that race. What important information did I miss if they were on equal weights. I understand that there are a lot of variables, but what really makes a favourite and non-fav different. I know this question might be rather cryptic and expansive, but would appreciate any answers...

Another one:
3. Do people incorporate the length by which a horse won/lost the last race, or is it a useless fact?

Thanks

[doughboy66]

Great thread as i`ve picked up a lot of useful information.
Can anyone tell me what does a spot form in the newspapers actually show and why do they often differ from paper to paper.
Many thanks
doughboy66

[kaka4ever]

which is the difference between a hurdle and a chase?

[gingerzola]

Hurdles are smaller, easier to jump obstacles than the larger chase fences

[gingerzola]

One thing i'd like help with is to do with jockeys. Some races have a figure following the jockeys name eg- (6lbex) which I presume is because he has to carry 6 pounds extra (?), I was just wondering why this happens?

I also hear it said that a certain jockey is "claiming" weight. What does tis refer to?

Very good thread.