All Weather Racing

[jeremiah catskill]

All Weather Racing Guide

In this thread I will try & guide you through the 4 all weather courses & how to approach them from a punting perspective

I won't be posting tips on here but use it as a forum to help understand this potentially profitable area of racing.

i recognise that all weather racing isn't everybodys bag , but it should be.

There are many reasons why it is easier to make money on the all weather than on the turf.

1. There are only 4 courses. unlike turf racing where you have to decide whether a horse that runs well at Epsom is likely to replicate its form at York, on the all weather you only have to aquaint yourself with the 4 courses

2. Despite common consensus, favourites win more often than on the turf
Just looking at handicap races - which is the majority of the decent races -
In the last 2 years the following Strike Rates occured (Kempton is lower as its newer & people are still to fully understand how horses run here)

Kempton - 25.1%
Lingfield - 29.6%
Southwell - 29.8% ( betting these blind would only make an 1.4% loss)
Wolverhampton - 25.4%

All Weather - 26.3%
All Turf - 24.6%

Both Wolverhampton & Lingfield have strike rates in excess of 34% for non handicaps which is lower than on the turf due mainly to most of these races being very low quality.

3. Most people don't understand all weather racing.
This gives those that do an advantage by gaining better value on their picks

There are many more reasons & I will attempt to cover them all.


Please feel free to discuss/challenge the views

Other areas i will look at over the next week are

..............................................................

Differences between the courses
Sires
Dam Sires
Draw Bias
Comparable surfaces
trainers
jockeys
Which type of horse for which course

[jeremiah catskill]

Just to start off - here are the top 50 Sires for Wolverhampton since it changed to the polytrack surface. These are for all distances & I will break these down into distances later this week

Apologies about the formatting but its the best I can do!

Sire Wins Runs Win % Plc %

 Invincible Spirit(IRE) 10 40 25.00% 45.00%
 Galileo(IRE) 8 33 24.20% 51.50%
 Giant's Causeway(USA) 6 27 22.20% 40.70%
 Almaty(IRE) 7 32 21.90% 43.80%
 Glory Of Dancer 5 25 20.00% 48.00%
 Deploy 5 25 20.00% 32.00%
 Red Ransom(USA) 13 66 19.70% 42.40%
 Docksider(USA) 18 95 18.90% 41.10%
 Princely Heir(IRE) 9 48 18.80% 25.00%
 Crafty Prospector(USA) 7 38 18.40% 42.10%
 Mozart(IRE) 10 57 17.50% 29.80%
 Rahy(USA) 9 52 17.30% 44.20%
 Bahhare(USA) 19 113 16.80% 32.70%
 Lear Fan(USA) 5 30 16.70% 43.30%
 Fath(USA) 7 42 16.70% 28.60%
 Desert Sun 23 140 16.40% 35.70%
 Generous(IRE) 6 37 16.20% 35.10%
 Capote(USA) 4 25 16.00% 36.00%
 Catrail(USA) 11 70 15.70% 37.10%
 Montjeu(IRE) 10 64 15.60% 32.80%
 Bien Bien(USA) 9 58 15.50% 36.20%
 Flying Spur(AUS) 4 26 15.40% 26.90%
 In The Wings 14 92 15.20% 43.50%
 Arkadian Hero(USA) 5 33 15.20% 33.30%
 Perugino(USA) 10 66 15.20% 31.80%
 Bigstone(IRE) 4 27 14.80% 22.20%
 Definite Article 4 27 14.80% 25.90%
 Danzig(USA) 5 34 14.70% 44.10%
 Danetime(IRE) 27 184 14.70% 32.10%
 Dansili 22 152 14.50% 40.10%
 Hernando(FR) 9 63 14.30% 20.60%
 Xaar 13 91 14.30% 29.70%
 Bertolini(USA) 32 227 14.10% 31.70%
 Namaqualand(USA) 6 43 14.00% 25.60%
 Diesis 7 51 13.70% 31.40%
 Ishiguru(USA) 5 37 13.50% 29.70%
 Observatory(USA) 13 97 13.40% 35.10%
 Fantastic Light(USA) 8 60 13.30% 36.70%
 Case Law 4 30 13.30% 33.30%
 Ashkalani(IRE) 11 83 13.30% 33.70%
 Indian Lodge(IRE) 9 69 13.00% 30.40%
 Namid 18 138 13.00% 26.80%
 Dolphin Street(FR) 7 54 13.00% 37.00%
 Spectrum(IRE) 29 224 12.90% 29.50%
 Pivotal 23 179 12.80% 42.50%
 Vettori(IRE) 20 156 12.80% 35.90%
 Bijou d'Inde 5 39 12.80% 25.60%
 Halling(USA) 11 86 12.80% 31.40%
 Cadeaux Genereux 33 263 12.50% 25.50%
 Dayjur(USA) 4 32 12.50% 31.20%

[qhstatistics]

Good information, something that makes this forum worth while.
_________________
Betting systems reviewed- check my site!

[jeremiah catskill]

I will , as promised , look at the configuration of each course next - but just as a follow up to the top 50 AW sires at Wolverhampton - for all you layers out there - here are the Bottom 50 Sires at Wolverhampton (minimum 25 runs)
Sire Wins Runs Win % Plc %

 Timeless Times(USA) 0 33 0.00% 6.10%
 Fumo Di Londra(IRE) 0 27 0.00% 7.40%
 Makbul 0 84 0.00% 9.50%
 Mt Livermore(USA) 0 28 0.00% 17.90%
 Erhaab(USA) 0 36 0.00% 19.40%
 Bishop Of Cashel 0 47 0.00% 21.30%
 Aragon 0 29 0.00% 24.10%
 Zilzal(USA) 1 86 1.20% 26.70%
 Brave Act 1 41 2.40% 17.10%
 Wolfhound(USA) 3 124 2.40% 19.40%
 Most Welcome 2 78 2.60% 26.90%
 King Of Kings(IRE) 1 34 2.90% 17.60%
 Cayman Kai(IRE) 1 34 2.90% 17.60%
 Elmaamul(USA) 1 33 3.00% 9.10%
 Noverre(USA) 1 33 3.00% 33.30%
 Clantime 1 32 3.10% 9.40%
 Mind Games 7 229 3.10% 17.00%
 Kingsinger(IRE) 1 31 3.20% 9.70%
 Merdon Melody 1 30 3.30% 20.00%
 Cozzene(USA) 1 30 3.30% 26.70%
 Captain Rio 1 29 3.40% 17.20%
 Fruits Of Love(USA) 1 29 3.40% 17.20%
 Emarati(USA) 2 55 3.60% 20.00%
 Mull of Kintyre(USA) 3 84 3.60% 20.20%
 Perryston View 1 27 3.70% 3.70%
 Second Set(IRE) 1 27 3.70% 3.70%
 Highest Honor(FR) 1 27 3.70% 18.50%
 Brief Truce(USA) 1 27 3.70% 18.50%
 Iron Mask(USA) 2 52 3.80% 17.30%
 Eagle Eyed(USA) 3 78 3.80% 19.20%
 Slip Anchor 1 26 3.80% 23.10%
 First Trump 3 76 3.90% 18.40%
 Peintre Celebre(USA) 1 25 4.00% 24.00%
 Petong 2 49 4.10% 10.20%
 Zaha(CAN) 2 49 4.10% 12.20%
 Averti(IRE) 4 97 4.10% 17.50%
 Muhtarram(USA) 3 70 4.30% 18.60%
 Daylami(IRE) 3 69 4.30% 26.10%
 General Monash(USA) 4 90 4.40% 20.00%
 Prince Sabo 2 44 4.50% 18.20%
 Titus Livius(FR) 5 111 4.50% 21.60%
 Auction House(USA) 2 44 4.50% 22.70%
 Charnwood Forest(IRE) 3 65 4.60% 18.50%
 Lugana Beach 2 43 4.70% 11.60%
 Beckett(IRE) 2 42 4.80% 4.80%
 Unfuwain(USA) 2 42 4.80% 11.90%
 Imperial Ballet(IRE) 5 102 4.90% 11.80%
 Paris House 4 82 4.90% 26.80%
 Danzig Connection(USA) 3 60 5.00% 20.00%
 Whittingham(IRE) 3 59 5.10% 16.90%

[yoyoleo]

good thread jc for those that are'nt keen on nh racing,just wondering if your doing this from memory or have you found how to use the percentage of the brain the rest of us neglect sure this will be well used over the coming months.

[Betfairalfie]

Great thread JC

[bakerboy]

good thread mate.I'm not the best at all weather racing.

[jeremiah catskill]

Course Descriptions
Courses

3 of the courses are polytrack & are often seen as much the same but there are differences which can be used to our advantage.

If they are the same the standard times would be the same

Looking at 5f races the following are the standard times

Lingfield - 58.3s or 18.87 yards/sec
Wolves (5f 20 yds) 61.2s or 18.3 y/s
Kempton 59.8s or 18.4 y/s

This suggests that Lingfield is the quicker of the polytrack courses & Wolverhampton the slowest.

Visually you will see this as Wolverhampton finishes are often dour affairs whilst Lingfield often sees a fast finishing type win

Why?

Lingfields 5f's are run around 2 bends & has the shortest finishing straight, Often running around a bend slows a horse down which suggests the surface is even faster than imagined. Because of the short straight it pays to be in a prominent position at the top of the straight. I will get more into the draw later but a curiosity occurs here.
You would expect those drawn low would have a big advantage coming around these tight bends but stalls 1 & 2 have awful records in recent times. There has been a suggestion that the ground is thicker next to the rail & if stuck there you will flounder. Most stall 1 horses in efect set the race up for the fast finishers as they fade away.

Wolverhampton appears to have the slowest surface despite being the easiest course. The draw bias is less pronounced but it does pay to be handy & therfore the inside draws hold an advantage. Again you need a horse that will race prominently.

Kempton is different in being right handed & having the longest straight. For these reasons horses that perform at the other AW tracks won't necessarily do well here. Horses that need time to get going in the straight ill do better here than at Lingfield.

In 5f races though - there is a bend almost immediately so a low draw is very problematic as thay will often be pushed 4 or 5 wide before they've even got going. A high draw is a big advantage.

Unlike other courses the bias is not as strong at 6f due to the longer straight allowing horses to sit in then pounce late

In conclusion it pays to assume that each course is different & that horses that have done well at one course - gone to another & flopped are quite profitable when returning to their favourite track

I will cover Southwell later when it returns

[jeremiah catskill]

Lingfield Draw Stats

For the following I have excluded odds on shots & limited it to races of 8 runners or more so as not to skew the figures

5F races - last 3 years results

As seen low is best BUT stall 1 has only a 5.4% strike rate - I will look at this in more deatil at the bottom of these post

Drawn Wins Runs Win% Plc% ROI%
1 6 111 5.4% 27.0% -49.5%
2 12 111 10.8% 37.8% -6.8%
3 15 109 13.8% 38.5% -1.0%
4 13 109 11.9% 33.0% 5.5%
5 16 110 14.5% 33.6% -15.7%
6 10 114 8.8% 33.3% -39.4%
7 11 108 10.2% 31.5% -36.5%
8 9 110 8.2% 33.6% -59.5%
9 10 100 10.0% 24.0% 7.5%
10 11 86 12.8% 29.1% -14.2%

6f

Not as big a bias here but you lose more money following the inside stalls as people BELIEVE there is a stonger bias

Drawn Wins Runs Win% Plc% ROI%
1 18 247 7.3% 24.3% -42.2%
2 26 248 10.5% 27.8% -34.3%
3 22 244 9.0% 29.1% -52.6%
4 28 255 11.0% 33.3% -22.3%
5 14 249 5.6% 27.3% -45.2%
6 28 252 11.1% 28.2% -17.5%
7 24 252 9.5% 29.4% -30.4%
8 25 248 10.1% 32.7% 0.4%
9 22 239 9.2% 26.8% -9.6%
10 23 206 11.2% 25.2% -20.1%
11 14 181 7.7% 24.3% -18.2%
12 11 155 7.1% 28.4% -33.1%

Finally 7 & 8f

Middle seems the place to be with the worst ROI on the 4 inside stalls!

Drawn Wins Runs Win% Plc% ROI%
1 39 563 6.9% 23.4% -43.4%
2 43 570 7.5% 23.2% -47.3%
3 43 567 7.6% 24.0% -32.2%
4 41 564 7.3% 24.6% -45.3%
5 48 569 8.4% 30.8% -37.6%
6 71 565 12.6% 30.3% 9.9%
7 62 558 11.1% 28.0% -17.2%
8 52 559 9.3% 28.8% -15.1%
9 37 545 6.8% 25.5% -20.4%
10 43 519 8.3% 28.5% -21.6%
11 35 472 7.4% 25.8% -26.6%
12 35 400 8.8% 23.8% 15.3%
13 16 179 8.9% 27.4% -20.5%
14 8 143 5.6% 15.4% -33.2%

The following 2 tables are based on the last 6 months when the draw 1 bias has got worse

5-6f

Only 1 winner in 64 trys for the 1 horse!!

Drawn Wins Runs Win% Plc% ROI%
1 1 64 1.6% 9.4% -89.1%
2 5 58 8.6% 27.6% -43.1%
3 8 63 12.7% 31.7% -8.2%
4 4 66 6.1% 31.8% -47.0%
5 5 65 7.7% 30.8% -59.6%
6 6 65 9.2% 35.4% -42.7%
7 6 65 9.2% 40.0% -36.9%
8 10 66 15.2% 30.3% 74.6%
9 8 63 12.7% 23.8% 29.9%
10 5 54 9.3% 27.8% -61.1%
11 4 32 12.5% 34.4% 89.1%
12 2 27 7.4% 25.9% -22.2%

7-8f same period

Drawn Wins Runs Win% Plc% ROI%
1 6 85 7.1% 18.8% -43.2%
2 4 94 4.3% 19.1% -60.6%
3 8 85 9.4% 23.5% -2.4%
4 6 89 6.7% 28.1% -20.4%
5 4 92 4.3% 23.9% -41.8%
6 18 90 20.0% 36.7% 114.7%
7 10 88 11.4% 30.7% -14.2%
8 7 91 7.7% 23.1% -28.0%
9 4 89 4.5% 24.7% -50.0%
10 4 82 4.9% 28.0% -45.7%
11 8 75 10.7% 30.7% -3.5%
12 6 66 9.1% 24.2% -5.3%
13 1 33 3.0% 18.2% -21.2%
14 4 27 14.8% 29.6% 64.8%

[graybert]

Fantastic thread jc. i like all weather but my dad swears by it and loves his stats so this will be right up his street.
can't believe this information is free as you have obviously put a lot of work into it and should really get paid for it.
I will definatly be using this information and hopefully benefiting from it.
cheers for the hard work and good luck.
p.s. will you be adding to this subject and how long will this thread be open for?
_________________
If it wasn't for bad luck i'd have no luck at all

[Roger Green]

Fantastic thread JC...

[bilgerat]

JC wow your like a computer.
i love to learn, but ive a information overload.

BRILLIANT this is an awesome help to understand bits to the AW tracks.
cheers
bilgerat