All Weather Racing

jeremiah catskill · Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:30 pm Post subject:

The official handicap mark sets what race the horse is eligible for & wha weight it will carry

eg in a 0-85 race only horses rated 85 or lower will be able to run. In theory a horse rated 45 could run but it would be pointless as it wouldn't have the class to win.

So a horse rated 77 would race off a weight of 9st 6 if 10 stone is top weight.

Every week the handicapper will reasses the horse. If it has won then it will invariably rise depending on the ease of the win & winning margin. If it runs close then it is often kept on the same mark & if it finishes way back it will drop.

The drops are usually only a pound or 2 & the rises are often 5 or 6.

If the horses stay in the same grade this can effect weight

eg horse one (rated 77) wins by 2 lths & is put up to 83, Horse 2(rated 77 also) tails off & is dropped to 74. So next time if tey re-appose they will be running off 9st 12 & 9st 3 - a swing of 9 lb's.

If horse one wins again & is raised to 88 it will no longer be able to race in this grade so may then run in a 0-105. This would mean it running off 8stone 11 - Ie. a lower weight but in a better race

The RP rating is an indicator - purely a subjective call don't forget - off wha mark it ran to - so if horse one won by 10 lengths off 77 & the second was a consitent type who is rated 80 then the RPR may be touching 90 ( ie it ran 13lb's better than its official mark) In theory if it was raised to 87 then it still has 3 lb's in hand according to the RP

Clear as mud!!

fire cobra · 2yo Joined: 21 Nov 2007 Posts: 2

Great info everybody,

Thanks Smile

wiseman33 · Listed Class Joined: 10 Sep 2007 Posts: 26

hi jeremiaha,have sarted to look at one meeting a day and try and make something of the form,can i ask how long it takes for you to go through a card to pick a potential winner/loser.at the moment its taking me about 3 days lol.i understand it gets quicker and can i also ask do you check every horses form on the card.thanks for the help Very Happy

jeremiah catskill · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject:

Hi Wiseman

Firstly - I don't go through the card. I generally don't look at sellers,claimers & definitely not maidens - which leaves only 2 or 3 races which are usually handicaps or better class stakes races.

Then when looking through the form - try & train your mind to only looking at the AW form & even ignore Southwell when looking at the polytrack - I only look at other form to get a general feel for the horses well being.

A quick way of doing this on the RP website - is where the summary of each horses performances at the top of their form page - you can click on the AW summary & it will filter it for you.

Most Aw performers hve a greade they can win in so I oppose narrow winners stepping up in grade & look to class droppers who are in form - very simplistic but it works.

wiseman33 · Listed Class Joined: 10 Sep 2007 Posts: 26

Thanks again
is there any easy way to check a hores parents record on aw as i heard this has a huge effect on a horses ability "is this true"..

also i stat i read in nick mordins betting for a living "horses who won LTO and are stepping up in class next race lose 90% of the time.maybe a good place to start lol
Very Happy

Where does it tell yu on a race if the race is for horses up to a certain bhb rating.

Thanks in advice

patient · Listed Class Joined: 28 Jul 2007 Posts: 46

I too have been having the same problem and end up checking wedensdays racing on a monday!
Thats really helpful advice Jeremiah, thanks!

wiseman33 · Listed Class Joined: 10 Sep 2007 Posts: 26

hi lads was just wondering if you look back at a horses BHB ratings and the previous highest is 64 and is now at 70.it has never won at 70 and fails to win this timeit drops down to 64 again and wins and goes back to 70 next time out.can we assume that if it goes back in the same class it may not win again.i suppose my question is they must reach a certain level in BHB ratings that they cant win off.whats the highest BHB rating a horse can have.if this is a silly question please ignore lol.thanks for all the help guys. Very Happy

man o bong · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject:

Rubbish comment Leeds,

perhaps i could help you, check out my all weather tips, i'm sure you'll find i wont let you down
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jeremiah catskill · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject:

Very strange comment -

its fantastic for those who know what to look for. I make over half my profit from these 4 tracks. Form is more consistent than on the turf, people don't understand it fully ( good for value) & is a potential goldmine for those willing to have a look.

Its not the best to watch but the bank account is after a nice staying race at Wolverhampton!!

You can make money almost blindly - have a look at my Wolverhampton faourites system I put up recently or at Man O bongs good work

By the way MOB - do you fancy using your software to see how the system i put up is progressing?

JC

man o bong · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject:

Yes i will do actually JC,

i'll input tonight and run it, see what we get.
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jeremiah catskill · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject:

I don't tip on here anymore but will be contributing to this thread still

JC

man o bong · Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject:

The fact you comment was so short and curt, prompted my reaction.

Perhaps you would like to elaborate on the statment to back up the comment, with your opinion and some reasoning.

I admit i came back quickly with my response, you joined yesterday, and although i havent read all of your posts, the ones i have seen, have yet to convince me you have anything particularly useful to contribute.

Just think a bit more about the content of your posts, and i'm sure you'll be taken more seriously

I await your elaboration
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