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yoyoleo
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 Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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is it ok if i pm you for advice though jc,just want to know if im on the right track with the way i look at all weather. 
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"proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift
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jeremiah catskill
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Joined: 09 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Fine by me Yoyoleo  |
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yoyoleo
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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top man jc...thanks in advance of some great advice. 
leeds read jc's signature and will be clear why his tips arent available on forum anymore...but if you have the funds i cant see you going wrong if you get my drift.
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"proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift
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man o bong
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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Thought i'd just copy this across from the SYSTEMS thread, as it does sit here too i guess.
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I have long been a fan of All Weather racing since Lingfield kicked off in 2001 and Wolverhampton 4 years later. Checking my personal records confirms the reason why when i see I have been able to make a consistent profit, more than I thought in fact, on these tracks. The exception would be Kempton, but being a relatively new track I guess I have yet to find my level there. It has been nice to enjoy some action from Ireland from Dundalk in the latter part of 2007 and it is yet to be seen how I fare at Great Leigh’s when it eventually opens it doors as the first new racecourse since Taunton in 1927.
I have publicly advocated all weather racing as a good thing many times in the past, as I feel from a form reading perspective the job is far easier than trying to sort out the idiosyncrasies of turf courses and interpreting that into my form reading. The advantage I see from analysing horses performances is the level playing field we have in regards to the ever so slight differences in going, the similarities and differences between the polytrack and fibre sand and more importantly the fact that races are run over the same advertised distances rather than having to factor in guesswork in timings due to rails being moved at turf courses to help, save and preserve ground. All these things I feel take some of the work out of assessing each runner’s previous performances.
I got to thinking the other day whilst on a lengthy drive that I thought I had noticed a larger than normal amount of favourites going in on the all weather over the last couple of months. Wolverhampton especially, I was thinking had thrown up a good number in particular.
So I began to ask myself, “had the all weather started to become more predictable?”
There was only one way to find out – Hours of research, but I was determined to answer my own question and set about the task in hand.
I ran my software over all all weather races run between 1st November and 28th of December inclusive analysing just the favs, sole and joint, and their performance. Backing all favs to level stakes would have produced a 30%SR and a loss of 40.60pts, this is only lessened slightly if concentrating on clear favs by an up in strike rate to 31% and a loss of 35.68. I did notice however that by concentrating on races with a minimum of 10 runners a better return could be had, presumably by the fact the favourite prices would be larger, and also to limit the analysis to races between 5f and 10f.
With Southwell and Lingfield performing as I thought they might, giving heavier losses, I decided to take those two courses out of the equation, factor in the runners and race distances and analyse again.
Now I began to get excited. From 146 favourites at SP we had now found 48 winners for a strike rate that didn’t improve by a great deal, only to 32% but the level stakes investment had turned from a loss into a healthy looking profit of +20.03. A 20pt profit over two months is more than acceptable for me. However a two month period that had stuck out in my mind as being successful was not a big enough sample for me to base a system going forward. So time to bite the bullet and test the system for a longer period. Before doing so I noted that top class races were surprisingly unfavourable for the system as were banded class 7, so they were omitted as I looked to analyse all races for 2007 with the following criteria
SP FAVS
Courses: WOLVERHAMPTON – KEMPTON
Distances: 5f to 10f
Runners: 10 or more.
Class: 3,4,5 and 6
I was disappointed at first to discover that the strike rate had dropped by 3% down to 29% (208-704) and all the profit had disappeared as a single point investment in each runner would have returned a loss of -2.46 for all favourites, there was a slight increase in backing clear favs of 31% and a profit of +5.05.
So what had changed? Well presumably my initial thought that the past two months had seen more favourite than usual winning is borne out by these figures compared to the smaller two month sample I had run previously. But the returns were still in a region where I thought it worth a little look to see if there were any other places we could look to improve returns betting blindly on favs at these two courses. It didn’t take me long to fins it. Going through the specific race types I noticed that all specs had returned profit with the exception of two, namely Apprentice races in particular had let the system down with just two winners from 19 races (10%) and a heavy loss as they both returned short odds, the other was auction races which although a 32%SR was achieved once again the prices were so short that they took a huge chunk of the profits out.
There was only one thing for it, omit these types of races out of the criteria, and run a full test to the beginning of 2006, a date decided as a good starting point as racing was still new at Dunstall Park at this time but had been going for long enough to now be a part of trainers regular schedules. I looked at another couple of factors to tweak and decided on concentrating on 9-10f races in classes 4 and 6 only. There are not enough class 3 events to warrant long term analysis and class 5 [imo], is a testing ground for trainer to see if their charges are ready for stepping up or stepping them down to assess the level of regression in a horses form.
So we would now get a large enough sample to decide if this might be a system worth following going into 2008 based on the returns the tests would prove.
A quick run through for 2007 alone gave a nice manageable amount of bets for the year at 132 rather than the 704 previously so looked ready for the full test.
RESULTS
SYSTEM TESTED BETWEEN 1/1/06 – 28/12/07
CRITERIA
SP FAVS
Courses: WOLVERHAMPTON – KEMPTON
Distances: 9f to 10f
Runners: 10 or more.
Class: 4 and 6
NOT auction or Apprentice races
RESULTS
ALL 76-212 (35%) +48.71
ALL [LONE] 83 252 (32%) +45.25
2006 35-120 (29%) +9.47
2007 48-132 (36%) +35.79
2008 ?
The only difficulty with this system is the flip flopping of favs in the market, during the run up to the race, otherwise it is relatively simple to run.
The improvement of profits from 2006-2007 is nothing out of the ordinary, or at least that we can gauge as yet, with another years results it will become clearer if this is a trend of “predictability” for AW racing under the criteria used or of course the system could return a loss over the coming year. I am however confident that we should get another year of good results from this system.
One final thing that I think is worthy of note is that this system for both 2007 alone and for the two years combined has produced a profit in 10 of the 12 months of the year, so it does produce a nice trickle charge of interest throughout the year
I shall update the 2008 figures regularly, although for obvious reasons it will be impossible for me to post up the selections on a daily basis unless I am sat here 24/7 watching the markets, and as much as I love all the dear OLBG forumites and lurkers alike, I aint prepared to do it.
However I have set out the full criteria of the system for all to use for future reference should you so wish to do so.
Good luck and happy systematic punting.
MOB. |
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jeremiah catskill
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Joined: 09 Jun 2006
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Location: Up to my neck in nappies!
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Leeds - what is it you don't like about it? |
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yoyoleo
Triple Crown Winner
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Location: south london
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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leeds people dont like all manner of things in life but a comment like the one you put up really has no depth or reasoning so is a waste of time(all weather is ****),if you dont like something ignore it but if you took the time to read through this thread you would see it offers some good betting advice,for the record im not a big fan of all weather but will look at all aspects of racing in that hunt for an "edge"over the bookies which this thread will give you,regards,yoyoleo. 
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"proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift
master minded..champion chase winner 2009/2010/2011.
Last edited by yoyoleo on Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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jeremiah catskill
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Location: Up to my neck in nappies!
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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| I won't waste my time then. Its easy pickings if you want to make good money. If you're more interested in the aesthetics of horses running round in circles then maybe you have a point - my apologies |
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lochinvar
Group 1 Class
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Joined: 16 Apr 2007
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Location: Herts England
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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| You're not wasting your time JC, some of us are learning from yours and others great advice. Please keep it coming. |
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abhinn
Group 3 Class
Joined: 04 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Gutted JC |
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Sorry You wont be tipping on here anymore, as a newcomer to the site I quickly figured out that you and rodger were top men at your work and I was looking forward to making some profit this year with not least a little help from you so sad that you wont be tipping on here but thanks for the winners.  |
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apollo14
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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I never used to like the AW but since joining OLBG, participating in the excellent comp that Deco runs and learning from people like JC and MOB I have managed to become reasonable at finding winners.
It has also become more enjoyable looking for them due to this new knowledge i have acquired i know what to look for more.
leeds i would strongly urge you just to give it a go for a couple of weeks and maybe enter the January challenge for a bit of fun? As MOB says in his last post (which i just finished reading  ) a lot of winners can be found at Wolverhampton and the AW is not as unpredictable as many people think with variables reduced due to the surface.
Give it a go m8 and if you still hate it then at least you tried!! |
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apollo14
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| Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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On the main horse racing forum page its the thread at top entitled 'January Racing Challenge.' The instructions are on the first page of the thread as to how to post your selections.
It actually started last night but a good night tonight and you will catch up pretty quick
Need them in b4 the first race at 6.20 |
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jeremiah catskill
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Location: Up to my neck in nappies!
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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Just a little update - will be looking at Southwell now its had a month back.
First impressions is that the going is very inconsistent as they churn up the track when its cold which makes the sand very deep, when it rains it becomes very fast. The problem is unless its very evident the going is just stated as standard  |
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