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802684255
2yo
Joined: 09 Oct 2007
Posts: 1
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 Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2007 6:55 pm Post subject: Good Laying Systems |
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Can anyone recommend a good horse laying system:? I've tried several methods, i.e. weak favs, 2nd favs, based on past form, price movements etc - but not found anything that gives consistent enough results to make this form of betting profitable? 
Thanks for all the helpful advice - some good ideas which I'll try out...
Last edited by 802684255 on Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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dannybig40
2yo
Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:30 pm Post subject: laying a cert.... |
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Hi there,my dad uses a system where he backs the stables that have travelled the most miles to the racecourse.So whether it's the fav or the outsider,it does not matter......he does good on this system.
I believe some papers quote who has travelled the greatest distance ?
Then there is the horse that keeps on getting entered into lots of races,gets nowhere,the odds increase....then hey presto..they win !
I believe this is practised and at the end of the day unless you have insider info you can not prove or disprove this....? |
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Betfairalfie
Stallion
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 5256
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| Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 12:00 am Post subject: |
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is best system ive found, but consistently predicting them is the hard bit.
| Quote: |
| ... but not found anything that gives consistent enough results to make this form of betting profitable? |
No one said beating a 105% book was easy and the sensible folk know its not a Golden Egg, but some people find it more profitable (or less loss making) than backing. Keep at it. Maybe your previous attempts just need a little analysis/tweaking to provide a non-profit making but fun hobby or better. |
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HolyRomanEmpire
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 1955
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| Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:57 am Post subject: |
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Wether you like the man or not, Nick Millard form Sports Live Radio, has a system on the flat where by...
If a 2yo shows promise first time up, and is less than 2/1, then he leaves them alone.
The results are very good, and so you could actually turn this in to a Lay sytem next year, when the official flat season resumes. |
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qhstatistics
Group 2 Class
Joined: 13 Jul 2007
Posts: 196
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| Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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The thing with Lay betting systems , and this is where people fall down is, that they might have a good few days with a system and then it loses, then they give up, you need to think of the long term profits - start small so the loses dont damage your bank too badly
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Betting systems reviewed- check my site! |
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Betfairalfie
Stallion
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 5256
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| Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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QH - agreed. The reverse is true too - I wonder how many system we have tried that are dropped when they start badly but would show a profit over the longer term.
The big problem with picking laying system is access to historical Betfair data. As all layers know theres a very big difference between profit at SP and profit at BF prices after commission deductions.
Last edited by Betfairalfie on Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:03 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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merlin
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 19 Apr 2006
Posts: 1017
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| Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| There are trends, systems etc that work very well, but you will get days when they go wrong and unless you have a stop loss or sensible wagering (i.e. don't chase losses) you will blow days of success (speaking from experience!). I think mostly look at favs, but I'd suggest both backing and laying favourites is the best chance of success. Good luck. |
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barney21
Group 2 Class
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 192
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| Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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for what its worth, take the R.Post tissue fcst between evs/2/1 no odds on deduct the odds from the next price up e.g. <6/4 from 3/1 is 1.5I think> add this to the no of tips for the selec in the tips sel box next to the race and the lowest fig is the days Lay works pretty good.
good luck all barney21
ps Lay to back the draw in soccer 93% str rate and more if you do a bit of research |
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Betfairalfie
Stallion
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 5256
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| Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| ps Lay to back the draw in soccer 93% str rate |
You mean 7% wipeouts, where all stake is lost or do you mean you only have to go level RED screen on 7% of the occassions?
If you mean 7% of your screens are level RED and 93% are level green then you must be very very lucky to get that high a strike rate using that old FCG system. Its been blogged on here with much poorer performance than that. FCG = MYTH BUSTED as far as I can tell. |
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barney21
Group 2 Class
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 192
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| Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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You might well be right Betfair I,m not into maths as such I Lay the draw then back when odds are in my fav it,s ok by me.
good luck barney21 |
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qhstatistics
Group 2 Class
Joined: 13 Jul 2007
Posts: 196
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| Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:40 pm Post subject: |
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weLL i have no secrets, i wiLL teLL everyone the easiest Laying method, Lay the 1st fiLLy with the Lowest price, then if it wins use the fibonacci staking pLan to recoup Losses
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Betting systems reviewed- check my site! |
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merlin
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 19 Apr 2006
Posts: 1017
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| Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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Is your progressive system based on horses under odds of 2 on the exchanges? I've seen the concept of progressively laying every horse under 2 with the fibonacci, and 'apparently' this works, however I'm rather apprehensive that I'd eventually hit an unfortunate run and end up blowing my bank. During november (to date), I think the longest losing streak has been 7 horses, equating to a fibonacci bet of 34 points (a horse eventually lost on the 8th bet at 1.73). Any longer than this and I'd get very worried - any thoughts?
Here's the data I've found using this system this month..........
01/11/07 Blaeberry 1.67 Won -0.67
01/11/07 Hilly Gale 1.44 Lost +2.00
01/11/07 City Breeze 1.83 Won -0.83
02/11/07 Serabad 1.83 Lost +2.00
02/11/07 Ouzbeck 1.73 Won -0.73
02/11/07 Badgerlaw 1.87 Lost +2.00
03/11/07 Port of Spain 1.57 Won -0.57
03/11/07 Battlecry 1.62 Won -1.24
03/11/07 Twice Over 1.80 Won -2.40
03/11/07 Knockavilla 1.80 Won -4.00
03/11/07 Mourilyan 1.40 Won -3.20
03/11/07 Black Jack Ketchum 1.67 Won -8.71
03/11/07 Taranis 1.91 Won -19.11
03/11/07 Fairmile 1.73 Lost +34.00
03/11/07 Annie's Answer 1.50 Lost +1.00
04/11/07 Halfway To Heaven 1.87 Won -0.87
04/11/07 Marleybow 1.91 Won -1.82
04/11/07 Ungaro 1.73 Lost +3.00
04/11/07 Formation 1.36 Won -0.36
05/11/07 Washango 1.53 Lost +2.00
06/11/07 Dhhamaan 1.40 Lost +1.00
06/11/07 Templer 1.40 Won -0.40
07/11/07 Cuban Missile 1.91 Won -1.82
07/11/07 La Grande Villez 1.83 Won -2.49
08/11/07 Pieter Brueghel 1.73 Lost +5.00
08/11/07 Bermuda Pointe 1.83 Lost +1.00
08/11/07 Sunnyhillboy 1.80 Won -0.80
08/11/07 Magic Glade 1.83 Won -1.66
09/11/07 Forest Silver 1.57 Lost -3.00
09/11/07 Double Banded 1.67 Lost +1.00
09/11/07 It's a Discovery 1.62 Won -0.62
09/11/07 Dahindar 1.50 Won -1.00
09/11/07 Mafioso 1.36 Won -1.08
09/11/07 Points of View 1.80 Lost +5.00
10/11/07 General Ledger 1.83 Lost +1.00
10/11/07 Pepporoni Pete 1.80 Won -0.80
10/11/07 Hell's Bay 1.67 Won -1.34
10/11/07 Montana Bay 1.40 Lost +3.00
10/11/07 Showtime Ice 1.67 Lost +1.00
11/11/07 Curragh Mountain 1.87 Lost +1.00
11/11/07 Kirbybroguelantern 1.73 Won -0.73
11/11/07 Lake Imperial 1.67 Won -1.34
11/11/07 Warrior Drive 1.40 Won -1.20
11/11/07 Granite Man 1.91 Lost +5.00
12/11/07 Torch of Freedom 1.73 Lost +1.00
13/11/07 John Dillon 1.57 Won -0.57
13/11/07 Alfadora 1.83 Lost +2.00
13/11/07 Soulard 1.83 Won -0.83
13/11/07 Petit Lord 1.50 Won -1.00
14/11/07 Evelith Echo 1.73 Won -2.19
14/11/07 Seven Disciples 1.62 Lost +5.00
14/11/07 O'Toole 1.40 Won -0.40
14/11/07 Howdigo 1.91 Won -1.82
15/11/07 Chrysander 1.73 Won -2.19
15/11/07 Grande Caiman 1.83 Won -4.15
15/11/07 Walsingham 1.67 Won -5.36
15/11/07 Praxiteles 1.67 Won -8.71
15/11/07 Lake Imperial 1.67 Lost +21.00
16/11/07 Imperial Commander 1.57 Won -0.57
16/11/07 Lidana 1.80 Won -1.60
17/11/07 Heads Onthe Ground 1.57 Lost +3.00
17/11/07 Valentines Lady 1.91 Won -0.91
17/11/07 Silver Tide 1.91 Won -1.82
18/11/07 Marshall Hall 1.57 Lost +3.00
18/11/07 Kealshore Boy 1.67 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Voy Por Ustedes 1.73 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Elusive Dream 1.67 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Rock Street 1.44 Won -0.44
18/11/07 Space Cowboy 1.57 Won -1.14
18/11/07 Mick The Man 1.80 Lost +3.00
17/11/07 Valentines Lady 1.91 Won -0.91
17/11/07 Silver Tide 1.91 Won -1.82
18/11/07 Marshall Hall 1.57 Lost +3.00
18/11/07 Kealshore Boy 1.67 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Voy Por Ustedes 1.73 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Elusive Dream 1.67 Lost +1.00
18/11/07 Rock Street 1.44 Won -0.44
18/11/07 Space Cowboy 1.57 Won -1.14
18/11/07 Mick The Man 1.80 Lost +3.00
19/11/07 Kelv 1.83 Lost +1.00
20/11/07 Rich Kid 1.83 Lost +1.00
20/11/07 Beau Torero 1.80 Won -0.80
20/11/07 Hobbs Hill 1.62 Won -1.24
20/11/07 Hoh Wotanite 1.91 Won -2.73
21/11/07 Classic Fortune 1.83 Won -4.15
21/11/07 Tralanza 1.44 Lost +8.00
23/11/07 Petitjean 1.73 Lost +1.00
23/11/07 Dark Corner 1.80 Lost +1.00
23/11/07 Acambo 1.40 Won -0.40
23/11/07 Palomar 1.67 Won -1.34
24/11/07 Gone To Lunch 1.80 Won -2.40
24/11/07 Mighty Matters 1.67 Won -3.35
24/11/07 Kauto Star 1.80 Won -6.40
25/11/07 Otage De Brion 1.44 Lost +13.00
25/11/07 Gansey 1.83 Won -0.83
= around + 20 points |
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