Which horse will you Lay to lose at the Festival?

Roger Green · Last edited by Roger Green on Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

Following our poll to find the bankers of the meeting, it will be interesting to find out which horses members reckon are likely to LOSE

I have only listed some of the likely favourites in the major races. Again please make a posting with your reasons when you vote..

Please continue to use the main Cheltenham thread for all your Festival comments..Good Luck

aidanldrebin · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject:

SIZING EUROPE

Quite an over reaction to this horses win in the AIG Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. Firstly, he beat 10 year old Hardy Eustace who has probably just started to decline slightly and secondly, a couple of rivals ran below expectations. As well as that, he will face by far his toughest task to date and also, the Champion Hurdle itself is whole new prospect for him in as much as the pace may be quicker and he will find much better horses giving him a tougher test than before. It is a much more competitive event than he has ever taken part in and at 9/4, he is far too short and must be taken on.
_________________
Nothing ventured, nothing gained....

CLICK THE LINK BELOW FOR MY FLAT 60 TO FOLLOW

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/blogs/tipster_blog.php?t=aidanldrebin&id=25044

deco121 · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject:

Denman

Far too short a price in my opinion and the value is certainly in taking him on rather than siding with him. Complete overreaction by the bookies after his penultamite start when his only serious rival, Snowy Morning, fell early on as he beat very little that day. He wasn't all that impressive either when winning last time and I can't see him taking the Gold Cup this year given the quality of some of his rivals.
_________________
Racing tips in 2007 = +201.04 (LSP)
Racing tips in 2008 = +82.31 (LSP)

* stats updated July 29th

Roger Green · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject:

TIDAL BAY

As I have said before, this is a quality horse make no mistake...but I made a posting yesterday about his style of jumping ( before he ran! ) and although I have no doubt he should win at the Festival with a clear round, he has got to be my Lay of the meeting ,as I will be very surprised if his jumping holds up in what are always fast run races at the Festival

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5896

Deco,

Did u know owners of Denman had put £26k on it to win? Would that alter yer opinion? They seem quite confident!
_________________
Positions now available in OLBG Lottery syndicate. 28 lines in each draw dramatically increases chances of a jackpot. Please PM me for info.

deco121 · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject:

Not really Dammo. Wink

Racehorse owners are always over-confident and some completely blind when it comes to the opposition. Denman obviously has a chance, but I'd rate him as a 4/1 or 9/2 shot for the Gold Cup to be honest. At his current price he is the Lay of the festival in my opinion - based on value.

I don't know what price Paul Barber put the 26k on but if it was at 7/4 or thereabouts then I could think of a lot better ways of investing that kind of money. Cool

_________________
Racing tips in 2007 = +201.04 (LSP)
Racing tips in 2008 = +82.31 (LSP)

* stats updated July 29th

apollo14 · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject:

Twist Magic

Im not really one for laying horses but if a gun was put to my head it would have to be this one. Looks all about speed to me and there is no way I would be backing him to confirm Tingle Creek placings over Voy Por Ustedes given that one's course record. Although the race at this is lacking a bit of strength in depth I am still not convinced that Twist Magic is a superstar and although Nicholls gave the ground as his excuse last time it is still worrying for his backers how tamely he folded when coming under pressure. Cheltenham WILL find this horse out one way or another.

Roger Green · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject:

Deco,I suspect it was the joint owner Harry Finlay who placed the bet...one of the biggest punters around !

apollo14 · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:20 pm Post subject:

If Findlay was THAT confident he'd have a lot more down than 26k. After all he did have a million on him last year in the Sun Alliance. Would take a very brave man to put that sort of money on a horse to beat Kauto.

yoyoleo · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject:

twist magic
bit of a chance on this one but still hasnt run round cheltenham since falling last year in the arkle,all his best ratings have been achived on right handed galloping tracks,feel he is best suited to a flat track and cheltenham is a specialist track,horses come back year in year out and perform around this unique course,expect voy por ustedes to turn the sandown form around on a course he enjoys so twist magic would be my Lay of the meeting(then i'll back him at aintree..) Win

although with my form roger you might want to have the war chest on the nose. Embarassed

_________________
"proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift

master minded..champion chase winner 2009/2010/2011.

onaed · Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:39 am Post subject:

I would also be laying Denman in the Gold Cup, no question he’s a class horse but i just cant see Kauto Star being beat, Ruby will ride him and that would leave Sam Thomas on Denman despite being a top horse he’s clearly the second string in the yard. Way too short in the market and i will be laying him in the weeks upto the event, he runs this coming weekend and if he wins well im sure he’ll come in again.

pleides · Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:16 am Post subject:

TIDAL BAY for me as it doesnt jump well enough..

No other reason !
_________________
Value Is All

Awake All Night To Find Profit ( I must keep taking the pills).