Laying at SP - value?

[adlad]

I'm currently using a self-made laying system which takes into account the 'value' of each Lay based on forecast odds and ratings. I usually place the lays the night before the race - checking/amending them in the morning and then occasionally will look just before the race starts, to see which way the price on my selected horse went.

Most of the time they drift, which is obviously favourable for me as I can choose to trade out here, but also because it usually indicates that the horse I have selected to Lay was a value Lay.

However, sometimes the market moves against me and when this happens, I wonder whether it would be better to just use the 'Lay at SP' feature on Betfair.

So what im asking is, does anyone know of any stats that show SP relative to previous odds? Would I be better off laying at SP, or just at a different period? (not the night before etc)

Thanks in advance!

[Betfairalfie]

This may help:

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic2_16933.html

[Betfairalfie]

adlad - my above post probably wasn't too helpful but at least it shows the link to historic BF SPs in case you or others didn't have it.

Is it a good idea to Lay at BF SP?
Personally I wouldn't do it but then maybe I have more time than you and can sit in front of my home PC and play all the races I am interested in.

I assume that when you consider a horse is worthy of a Lay that you have a price in mind. e.g. you might consider it worth a Lay @2.30 but not at 3.00. I would never Lay a horse no matter what its price was.

Obviously when laying at BF SP you can set a maximum Lay price which overcomes that concern. But, if you have time and access, I'd suggest you Lay when the volatile pre-race market shows a price lower than the price you had in mind. Then you could also take advantage of the volatile price swings to trade your Lay and (if you get the price direction right) increase your P/L.

I do feel that BF SPs are a good source of data when trialling systems though. Sadly many people don't even know they exist or are scared of exchanges. 20th Century gamblers

Good luck

[adlad]

Thanks for the advice, Alfie.

I had a look at the historic SP data you provided, which was just the kind of thing i was looking for! I did a quick check on the previous days lays, and found that 10 out of 15 of my lays were better than SP prices. Not conclusive evidence, but I'll start testing it on future selections also.

[Betfairalfie]

[adlad]

Thanks Alfie

I am being quite selective - today after analysis, I've ended up with 10 horses, 3 of which have yet to be matched. I'll list the ones I've had matched so far along with their price changes since matching:

HEREFORD

14:20 - MISS CEKA @ 6.4 (back is now 7, so going in the right direction!)

14:50 - P ARADISE EXPECTED @ 11 (now 12, so marginally good price change)

16:25 - JUPON VERT @ 11 (now 14.5, again, good Lay)

16:25 - URBAN TIGER @ 9.2 (now 8.2, but still a value Lay imo)

EXETER

14:00 - SPECTAIT @ 6.2 (now 4.7, worst price change today)

15:30 - AZTEC WARRIOR @ 9.4 (now down to 8.8)

15:30 - SKELLIG MIST @ 11 (now up to 19)

So, so far today, 4 have gone in the right direction, leaving me in a position where I can profitably trade out if I choose to. (but I wont as I am confident in my selections!)

3 went against me, and as far as I can see it tends to be the shorter priced horses that do this. Perhaps it would be better to Lay these only an hour or two before the race, but keep laying the higher priced (10+) the night before?

[adlad]

Those posted all came through nicely, plus another that was matched later giving me a clean sweep . Bank has now increased by 16% in 10 days. Average odds of losing bets so far is 8.15.