Joined: 13 Aug 2005 Posts: 7732 Location: Formbook
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: HORSE RACING SATURDAY - SELECTIONS
2.20 Ascot
GIGANTICUS
May have been a stronger bet but for being drawn way out in stall 19. Has been held back for this having been entered and not run already this season and i did expect him to turn out at chester but no, they have waited for this valuable prize today. 7f is his optimum trip. It is the fact that he has been drawn on possibly the wrong side, the same side in which he was drawn when appearing here in 2006. There is speed on this side this time though, so not without a chance but as mentioned stakes scaled right back because of the draw.
Ideal conditions in front of PHLUKE tonight. Eve johnsone houghtons runner is going to enjoy a number of factors in tonights race, not least the distance, the turning track, the small field, the going, the return to turf and the reletively quick return to the racecourse following his debut run at Kempton last month. He has won over course distance and going, is 9lbs better off than what he has previously won under (class 2 handicap may last year at Catterick off 89),
Finally in the closer at Thirsk at 8.40 tonight. SILIDAN has hinted to return to the form that saw him win off a handicap mark some 29lbs higher than todays. That win did come around 3 years ago now, ut i had a simialr bet last week with THE BEAR which you may remember scored. There has obviously problems but his last two runs have not been bad, and the fast surface will suit as will this 7f trip, very difficult tp predict what sort of price will be available for this one, but around the 12/1 mark would seem fair enough and just enough for me to have a little tickle. Odds below that and i would suggest leaving it for another day. _________________ There are only 2 things in life that NEED to be read. The Formbook, and the one for the flat as well
Last edited by man o bong on Sat May 10, 2008 7:42 pm; edited 3 times in total
He is a well related colt and is a half brother Pukka and also to Pongee who excelled as a four-year old and I expect this colt to do the same for Luca Cumani. He was a little too backward to show anything at two in a couple of runs, but enjoyed a better year of it last season and after winning his maiden at Haydock, ran a good race to be fourth in the King Edward VI Stakes considering he was stepping straight into Group company from a maiden. He attempted to make all on his next start in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but ran out of stamina a couple of furlongs from home and was passed by the likes of Yellowstone, Aqaleem and Raincoat. He then took on older horses for the first time when running on to be third in the September Stakes at Kempton behind previous Listed winner Steppe Dancer and rounded off the season with a brave win in a 14f Listed Race at Newmarket beating Spanish Hidalgo (subsequent winner of the Italian Leger). Some will argue that performance stamps him a staying type and though that may be the case, I still think he has the ability to cope with middle distances. He should have flourished psychically over the winter months and is bred to do a lot better as a four-year old and also gets his favoured Good ground and with Jamie Spencer aboard can outclass his rivals. Ivy Creek is smart on his day, but may find the ground too quick and his yard are bang out of form while this is probably a prep race for Regal Flush on his first start for Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor’s yard also look out of form on the evidence of last weekend. Petara Bay could run a big race at massive odds as he runs at a realistic level on quick ground for the first time in a while, but seemed to have lost the plot mentally towards the end of his three-year old campaign.
1.45 Ascot - FRAGRANCY
Jamboretta from the Sir Michael Stoute is sure to be popular but she has shown she appreciates ground with a bit of give in it and I will go with Michael Jarvis' representitive who needs to of the ground to be seen at her best. She won a Windsor handicap in slightly fortuitus circumstances and by and large held her form well throughout the season with some fair placed efforts. Final start saw her take on the older horses and take them apart with a late run to mow them down and score in terrific fashion. It is telling she is kept in training and connections must feel there is more to come and with the ground to suit can win here.
He is trained by Mark Johnston and comes from a brilliant family, but does have his quirks, mainly hanging left and can headstrong at times. However, he was gelded over the winter and put in a decent effort on his reappearance last weekend when sixth to Proponent in a Newmarket handicap when he didn’t appear to get home over the 9f trip, which he was trying for the first time. That run should have sharpened him up though and I think a track like Ascot will suit his style of racing and he showed last year he was smart with wins at Sandown and Glorious Goodwood. Fast ground seems to bring out the best in him and, at a forecast price of 20/1, he is worth a bet. The unexposed King Of Dixie is a danger as he looks a horse of huge potential, but makes his turf debut here while We’ll Come looks sure to make a high class four-year old, but may find this test a little too sharp. He is respected nonetheless. (60 to follow horse)
2.40 Lingfield - CLASSIC REMARK
This filly runs in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and as ever it looks a very weak race – so weak in fact that I fancy a runner who is a maiden after only one start. She is trained Harry Dunlop trained but she showed she has got a lot of potential judging from the way she finished on her debut at Newbury. She is a half sister to the very smart Cassydora, who actually won this race in 2005 for Dunlop’s father, John, but I think that this filly can emulate her sibling. Her trainer has already showed he can train a filly for the big races as his exploits with Festoso showed and this classically bred filly could well give him another chance to test the Group 1 waters. She was very slowly away on her debut at Newbury, but once they straightened up for home, she came home with real purpose and almost snatched third of Miracle Seeker who re-opposes here and I think she can reverse form with her and score here in a very weak Oaks trial. Look Here will most likely go off favourite in the view of her debut win at Salisbury where she beat Chester Vase winner Doctor Fremantle all ends up, but he looked far from the finished article that day and those in behind the two weren’t up too much either and she is likely to be short enough. Jazz Jam won the Masaka Stakes at Kempton in gritty fashion, but is far from certain to say whilst the opposite can be said of Mischief Making who’ll relish every yard of the trip, but may lack scope for improvement following a hat trick of wins in AW handicaps.
3.10 Lingfield - BY COMMAND
He is resplendently bred and is a half brother to many classy performers such as Invincible Spirit, Sadian and Massara just to name three and stepped onto the track with a big reputation and showed a lot of promise when a running on fourth to Firestreak in a 7f Sandown maiden. That promise ensured he started near odds on favourite for his next run at Salisbury, but could only finish fourth to subsequent Listed winner and Dewhurst runner up Fast Company, but obviously all was not right that day as he wasn’t seen again last season. Made his reappearance in just an ordinary 10f maiden at Windsor, but couldn’t have been more impressive when scoring by an eased down 6 lengths and the fact the runner up has won since and confirmed form with the fourth suggests the form is working out. He clearly needs to find improvement, but connections must think he has it and is said to be impressing in his work and in a race where market leaders have often failed to fire, I will go for the Dunlop colt to score. Curtain Call is likely to be the centre of attention but, he has yet to prove himself on ground so quick and though visually impressive last time out in a 10f race (glorified as a Derby trial) at Nottingham, easily accounted for two average rivals, one of whom has since been beaten in handicap company. Also, the form of his fifth in the Racing Post Trophy last season has taken some huge knocks with three of the four that finished in front of him all failing to win since. People will point to his run in the Futurity Stakes when beating 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator, but the slow ground didn’t suit that particular colt whose best form has come on a fast surface and it probably flattered Curtain Call and with those negatives in mind, he is worth taking on at what is likely to be a short price. Campanologist is a colt I rate, but sadly he has been transferred to Godolphin and prior to that had been trained by Mark Johnston to win the Listed Fielden Stakes over 9f at Newmarket, beating Kandahar Run who has won since at the same level. He stuck on well and gives the impression further would suit, but he isn’t guaranteed to get the near 12f trip and Saeed Bin Suroor has a poor record in this race. (60 to follow horse)
3.45 Lingfield - SALSA STEPS
She is a beautifully bred filly and is out of Irish Oaks winner Dance Design, but she certainly shows plenty of pace and thus far has done all her winning over 6f and is trained by Hughie Morrison who has always though a lot of her. She showed just fair form previous to this season with a maiden win a Folkestone her only career success, but clearly had made further progress judging by the way she won on her reappearance in a 6f handicap at Windsor. She was always travelling nicely in behind the pace and once asked to quicken, bounded away from her rivals to clear right away and score by a comfortable margin of 3¾ lengths (fast by 1.30 seconds) and the further she went, the better she looked. A step up to 7f shouldn’t be a problem and needs quick ground which she gets here and will take a lot of beating if reproducing the form of last time. Fleuret was staying on well that day too though and she too should be seen in a better light over this trip but, she has a mountain to climb to reverse form with the selection off level weights and more of a danger is Sabana Perdida from France who has form at the top level and chased home Nannina in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot last season and on her last start won a Group 3 at Longchamp, but as a result has to give chunks of weight all round here. _________________ CLICK LINK FOR DARK HORSES TO FOLLOW 2010
Todays big H/Cap is the 2.20 Ascot The Victoria Cup 7f gd/fm
26 runners
Only one of the last 10 winners has carried under 8st 7lb
This removes 7 from the field, 19 left
No horse older than 6 has won in the last 10 years
This removes 4 from the field, 15 left
Only 2 of the last 10 have won from a single figure draw position
This removes 3 from the field, 12 left
7 of the last 8 winners had had a previous run in that season
This removes 2, 10 left
6 of the last 8 winners had won or placed in their previous race
This removes 5, 5 left
The 5 left are :-
1. Dabbers Ridge
2. Al Khaleej
3. King of Dixie
4. Zaahid
5. Salient
Take your pick from them. 1 pt on each !
To further break it down I suppose you could see that only 3 of the last 8 have been at a single figure price, which would remove Al Khaleej as he looks the likely favourite. Likewise King Of Dixie (8/1 in the RP).
Only 1 of the last 8 was at 33/1 or more which removes Salient. Leaving two for the f/cast and a Barry Hills 1-2.
1. Dabbers Ridge
2. Zaahid
With a preference for Dabbers Ridge through being a C/D winner who won last time out.
Having gone through the cards these three took the eye, of many fancies on the original shortlist, I may put a couple more up tomorrow, but we will come to that in the morning.
Acot 3:20 - Silver Suitor
Buster Hyvonen is in grand form for James Fanshawe but he like Caluclating could be playing for second money behind Silver Suitor who steps markedly up in trip after a respectable reappearance behind Ajaan, he is expected to make his presence felt this term, and along with his big race entries he is capable of vast improvement here. Gala Evening could be the fly in the ointment.
Haydock 3:00 - Hoh Hoh Hoh
Indian Trail and Celtic Mill hardly showed there skills recently and remained best watched, while Machinist has to improve past Advanced, which is doubtful on similar terms, but on a line of form through Sonny Red, Hoh Hoh Hoh could take this race from Reverence, the latter is overlooked as he would appreciate much more softer ground and Hoh Hoh Hoh got the better of the latter behind Captain Gerrard at Newmarket.
Nottingham 3:25 - Cartimandua
Manzilla is an interesting recruit for David Nicholls but it is hard to make a case for at the ratings or against the top class Cartimandua who was thought good enough to run in the 1000 Guineas last term and came out easily to dispose of Rogue and Ripples Maid on her final two starts, put away since then she comes back as a filly to side with as she looks to move up the ranks and should be able to take this before moving on to bigger and better things, Broken Applause is an obvious danger but it would take a special three year old to knock Ed McMahons filly off her pedestal.
Kind Regards
HRE
Last edited by HolyRomanEmpire on Sat May 10, 2008 3:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 06 Mar 2008 Posts: 2416 Location: Hastings, East Sussex
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 9:46 am Post subject:
1:10 Ascot EW Classic Punch SP
half-brother improved as he got older and can see this one doing the same. Has some solid, if uneven-looking, form to his name and needs to bounce back from a couple of lacklustre efforts at the back-end of last year - seemingly running as if something amiss. If back to his best, and with stable in form, he could take some stopping today. Has won first time out before.
1:25 Haydock EW Menchikov @ 13
lightly raced and is still well-in over hurdles and should prefer the step up to 3m having looked one-paced over 2 1/2. stable among the winners again and should go well at a nice price
1:45 Ascot EW Valrhona @ 10
looks like she'll improve for the better ground and receiving lumps and lumps of weight here, she may well come on for her promising seasonal debut on soft ground at Doncaster. Needs to improve a bit though but therein will lie the value.
2:00 Haydock EW La Vecchia Scuola @ 23
improving mare who was brave as they come when winning two days running at Ayr. Has to improve again to figure here but could just do that. Not impressed with Blue Bajans jumping and its only his class that seems to get him so close. A plausible alternative is Lazy Darren who finished about 6 lengths behind Blue Bajan at Aintree and finds himself 4lbs better off...strictly on form not enough, but has improved since.
2:20 Ascot EW Presumptive @ 11
getting a bit old now but still has plenty to offer. 7f on fast ground is what he needs and loves this course. should come on for pleasing reappearance and this field seems to lack any real improving sorts (Al Khaleej aside but he is no price at all!)
Possibly has a bad draw but still 12/1 which is a fairly big price considering this is his optimum trip, im sure the hills camp will have him ready for this one.
Huge price of 22/1 for 4 places, he caused upsets by winning the Scottish Champion hurdle but looked really impressive and although up 12lb for that if Nick Schofield can give him a similar sort of ride he may well get a place.
Last edited by mattpjl on Sat May 10, 2008 4:57 pm; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: fancy three today
1.10 asc
ivy creek
the horse has form to be close to fav ,i presume the form of g wragg and the going putting punters off
my take is that ascot will have good covering of grass and will be no jar and trainer would not risk horse of this ability if he felt there would be a problem, and trainer has not run many lately that looked likely to be competitive so not sure the doubt about trainer form is relevent.
2.25 nott
inchloch
ran in decent race last time over 2 miles ,possibly fact finding mission to see if stays,mission accomplished but drop to 1 mile 6f should be ideal. well hcap'd on last years form and spell hurdling hasnt done him any harm
4.55 ling
saranome
shrewd trainer has managed to find ideal race where with addition of jockey allowance horse receives weight from field.
horse is open to any amount of improvement and with step up in trip ideal and trainer in form looks good value
Joined: 07 Jul 2006 Posts: 1684 Location: south london
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject:
afternoon all..well its a beautiful day outside but im quite attached to my pasty white appearence so will be watching the racing which is a good bag today..
[horse:e39ac6752c]nosferatu[/horse:e39ac6752c]
sold from amanda perrets yard for a tidy sum but has looked very green in first 2 starts for howard johnson,looked to finally be getting the hang of things lto with a very smooth display,think todays conditions are ideal and of interest running in such a hot race from out of the handicap.
[horse:e39ac6752c]chantaco[/horse:e39ac6752c]
another ex-flat horse who had looked to be going places on his first 2 starts,was stepped up in class lto when finishing unplaced at cheltenham when to my eye he looked like he'd be involved at the business end but didnt get up the hill,another one making his handicap debut today and i expect the flatter track to suit and barry geraghty was riding like the devil himself at punchestown recently..lets hope he still is.
[horse:e39ac6752c]binanti[/horse:e39ac6752c]
just a horse i have a soft spot for,previous c/d winner and is very capable when he fancies it,franny norton knows the horse well enough and expect him to be delivered late and rates a good e/w bet in a calvary charge.
as its all kicking off now on tv and my beers are ice cold i'll leave my selections there,have 3 others i like but you can see those on my tips page(no write ups though) but i dont expect too many will bother unless these go in,best wishes everyone for the weekend. _________________ "proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift
If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants-issac newton
BROUGHT OUT OF JOHNESTONE YARD AFTER LAST WIN BY THE GODOLPHIN TEAM ,This is Two horse race in my opinion with the defection of the top one and Campanologist is slighly further down the road than the O `Brien horse . Pace should be guarenteed by the Irish horses and at this time the selection has nothing to fear beat Kandahar Run at HQ , that horse then turned out to win listed race easily back at same track ALLESANDRO VOLTA fancied in the market and with pacemaker should have conditions to suit saddle slipped last time so ignore this is the obvious danger but with Godolphin being so keen on getting my selection into their colours i take it to win FRANKIE may provide a bit of value in the first on the card he`s 2/3 on older horses for Godolphin at this meeting _________________ NEVER WORRY ABOUT LOSER,S THEY ONLY BRING YOU ONE CLOSER TO YOUR NEXT WINNER
Last edited by mike mercury on Sat May 10, 2008 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
3.20 AscotBuster Hyvonen
There are a lot of tipsters tipping Silver Suitor, which is unproven over the distance and hasn't really shined in this class either. Hue has good form over the distance and in this class but doesn't really like the ground this fast. Gabier isn't proven on the ground. Plane Painter E/W if running from the front could go well as it likes the ground, but probably needs further.
Buster Hyvonen looks to be head and shoulders above these as it has the ground and distance that suits and it has been running well against better horses _________________ Never pay for tips, Why would you?.
just be cool, think about what your betting and be smart.
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