HORSE RACING THURSDAY - SELECTIONS

[aidanldrebin]

Not been a good time for me recently but heres hoping to a better Thursday and Paul Cole could be introducing a top notch colt at Newmarket this evening.

1.50 Salisbury - SIYASA

I know Godolphin's horses haven't set the world alight, but this filly is reckoned to be a very good filly indeed, so it was encouraging to see Folk Opera win the first at York yesterday for connections to the ball rolling. This filly is a sister to top class 10f performer Fantastic Light, but was slightly disappointing on her long awaited debut when only seventh in a Newmarket (July) maiden behind the smart Sense Of Joy. However, she was hampered during the race and in typical Frankie Dettori fashion, was eased when she had no chance of winning. Said to have wintered well and her work has been very good and it would be no surprise to see her make the Oaks line up still this season after a win here. Selsey is the pick of the Stoute three for me, but she could possibly be a longer term prospect than the selection, but is one to keep an eye on with regard to the future.

2.40 York - CENTENNIAL (NAP)

I found it really hard to split him and Tartan Bearer, particularly when you consider what North Light did in this race in 2004, but I feel the selection has achieved more and is the safer bet. He built on the immense promise shown when third to Raven's Pass on his debut when scoring well in a Newmarket (July) maiden over a mile from Moville. Followed that up with a taking win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark at Newbury, finiding a burst of speed to win, and rounded off promising first season chasing home the smart Thewayyouare in a French Group 3. Kicked off this campaign when winning the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown in game fashion from Whistledownwind and whilst it wasn't visually impressive, his trainer had said he would come on a ton for it. The form isn't brilliant, but he is expected to improve hugely from it and the fact he has proven himself already in Group company over 10f and has won on quick going for me makes him the firm fancy and also has no stamina doubts. Twice Over does though. Even though he is a distance winner, that was in a moderate Listed event at Newmarket and though he beat Raven's Pass last time out in the Craven, it was over a mile and he didn't win going away. The work watchers and his trainer have been taken with his work over the winter and recently, but I think Centennial and indeed Tartan Bearer will be going on at the finish and may just outstay him, just as he outstayed Raven's Pass over a mile last time out. (60 to follow horse)

5.50 Newmarket - HERRING SENIOR (NB)

This colt doesn't particularly grab the attention on paper as he is a half brother to useful 10f performer Zain, but is by a speedier influence (Kheleyf). However, it is his homework which is the reason for me selecting him as it has always been top class and is said to be the yards best hope of a Royal Ascot juvenile. Paul Cole's juveniles have tended to be all the better for their first outing, but this is said to be the best juvenile in the yard, so it would be disappointing if he wasn't to open his account at the first time of asking and it's telling Richard Quinn flys back from Salisbury to ride him. The one that's sure to be popular is the Richard Hannon trained Prolific and he could well be working the place down, but I don't know how he is doing and the yard have in general not be getting as many winners as they should and I'll stick with the Cole horse.

8.00 Newmarket - MOYENNE CORNICHE

This colt is trained by Geoff Wragg who has been going through a torrid time in more ways than one, but I feel this son of Selkirk can get him back on track. He made a highly promising debut on his one and only start as a juvenile when fourth in a Nottingham maiden in which he missed the kick badly. Still showed signs of inexperience on his debut, but he found a superb turn of foot in testing conditions to score well despite looking green and looked a horse with any amount of scope. Different ground this evening, but trainer will pull him if he feels it's detrimental to chances and he must have a big chance of booking a place in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot next month with a win here. Fateh Field from Godolphin showed some good form last season including when chasing home the promising Floristry, but I feel Moyenne Corniche's fitness will be a big advantage.
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[The Mighty Denman]

2.30 Perth - Carrick Dhu

Irish runner who´s generally done well on numerous previous visits to Scotland. Well on way to enjoying a deserved first win had he not run out three from home (2l up and going well) here latest. Yet to experience ground this fast or distance this long, but no obvious reason why he won´t adapt and obvious claims given low turnout.

1.50 Salisbury - Arthur´s Girl - E/W

Encouraging debut over 6f in October on AW and a step forward when third of nine in 1m2f maiden at Newbury (good to soft) last month great leap forward.

3.35 Perth - Rossin Gold
Nearly a year since last victory but has a decent strike rate over hurdles and not been running badly in novice chases recently. Latest effort was poor, but 2m4f probably stretched his stamina and every chance if anywhere near his best.

[bobdeblaa]

2.40 York McCartney I reckon this might the best of Godolphins Derby chances. Just the one off run run last year came in a hot Dewhurst. Always rather have Kerrin McEvoy on my side than Frankie too. NAP

[martinallen72]

1:40 York
EW Aegean Dancer @ 8
appears to have a good draw and although has had a break, can go well fresh. Has a bit to find on the form book with some of these, but his profile suggests he might be improving a little. If he does not win, Fyodor would have solid claims

2:10 York
Promising Lead (NAP) SP
looks penalty kick for Stoutes mare who is head and shoulders above this lot.

2:40 York
Twice Over SP
Have backed Centennial ante-post for the Derby, but that was before Twice Over came on the scene. Have been mightily impressed so far and could be something a bit special. Centennial is certainly next best.

EW Centennial SP
shaped encouragingly on reappearance in strange race. will probably be up there again today and has claims if able to build on his Sandown run, but Twce Over will be very tough to beat

3:10 York
Lang Shining SP
Lang Shining was quite impressive on his reappearance, albeit on slower ground. 3rd place Zaahid has come out and won the Victoria Cup at the weekend and 4th place Proponent won the Suffolk Stakes. Put those runs in the context of this race and Lang Shinings recent form looks vastly superior. New Seeker is talented on his day, but has to bounce back from disappointments last year
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[Diesel]

YORK

1.40
It will be important to check how much water has been put on the track - it could be plenty given that Twice Over's connections have been threatening withdrawal - but this will be fast and furious either way. Fast conditions are ideal for Fantasy Explorer, who appeals as a live long shot here. John Quinn has hit form and Fantasy Explorer is a proven York performer who is back on a useful mark now. Granted, he was well held at Nottingham on his reappearance, but he travelled well for a long way on softish ground and the fact that Moore is booked again suggests Quinn still feels he has a good horse on his hands. Bertoliver and River Falcon are the pair who appeal on the Lay side. Bertoliver got the perfect trip after a lightning start at Chester last week and needs a lifetime best to defy his penalty, while River Falcon goes well here but could find his come-from-behind style problematic on this fast surface.

Back Fantasy Explorer and Lay Bertoliver and River Falcon


2.10
The vast majority of turnover here will revolve around Promising Lead and, provided Sir Michael Stoute's filly is tuned up for her reappearance, the layers look set to be on the wrong end of the business. In short, Promising Lead is a borderline Group 1 filly based on her narrow Longchamp defeat last October who competes off level weights in a Group 3 contest here. She was turned over at odds-on in a conditions race at this meeting last year but is a different model now and can take this on the way to higher things this summer. Samira Gold looks one of the most likely to trouble the favourite, but don't be surprised if Under The Rainbow runs well at a big price now she returns to a more suitable grade.

Back Promising Lead


2.40
Three of the last four Derby winners won this and, as John McCririck never tires of telling us, no horse has ever gone on to Epsom glory having been beaten in the Dante. The stats are persuasive, right enough, but can Twice Over follow in the hoofprints of North Light, Motivator and Authorized? In short, he probably can. Among his rivals, Frozen Fire and Tartan Bearer are both unproven out of maiden company and anyone backing them is effectively taking a punt on the skill of messrs O'Brien and Stoute. McCartney came up well short in last year's Dewhurst, while the fact that Frankie swerves him for Young Pretender, who also fell short at Group 1 level last autumn, is hardly a boost to his chance. That leaves us with Centennial and Twice Over. Centennial is a bold galloper who proved he had trained on well with a gutsy Sandown Classic Trial success, but Twice Over showed much better form to pip subsequent Guineas fourth Raven's Pass in the Craven and can run the Gosden colt down late on provided fast ground doesn't prompt his withdrawal.

Back Twice Over and Lay Tartan Bearer

3.10
The key point here relates to how well Lang Shining reacts to his first encounter with a fast surface. It's possible he will relish it, and his Newbury Spring Cup win looks very solid in the light of what Zaahid and Proponent have achieved since, but his effectiveness under the conditions has to be taken on trust against some seasoned northern milers. Blythe Knight is a stone higher than when winning this last year but should go well again, while Annemasse and Fishforcompliments provide Richard Fahey with a strong hand. The freewheeling New Seeker is very hard to assess after failing to beat a single horse in his last four starts of 2007, but Mia's Boy has thrived for Chris Dwyer and will probably be sent off at longer odds than he ought to be.

Small Lay of Lang Shining

3.45
Only five runners, but a race full of questions. Is Charlie Farnsbarns still the same horse who chased home Authorized in the 2006 Racing Post Trophy? He's plainly had problems to have run just once since, while Docofthebay thrived in big fields last year but is a quirky type who may need a bigger field and stronger pace than he will encounter here. Royal Power and Striving Storm have much to prove after going off the boil last season, but Benandonner is in the form of his life after going down fighting off a mark of 92 in a highly competitive Spring Cup at Newbury. Richard Fahey's gelding is an uncomplicated ride with no fitness doubts and looks bound to go close again.

Back Benandonner

4.20
A very hard race race to assess. Four Star General didn't show a massive amount on his debut but is bred for the job and plainly thought capable of better and O'Brien has won this before, while Lord Shanakill came home strongly at Thirsk and is plainly good enough to show up well in maiden company. However, this has often fallen to a newcomer and Awinnersgame and Shaweel are both bred to be well above average. All in all, this looks one for the paddock posse rather than those sitting in front of their laptops.

Suggestion: Watch and learn

4.55
Any number of possible winners in a complex stamina test. Kayf Aramis has to be on the short list back on the mark he won this from last year, while Lady Dedlock has been hiked 11lb for her emphatic Kempton win but remains open to progress having left Charles Cyzer to join Jamie Poulton. Accordello, Bugsy's Boy and Mister Arjay also boast fair claims, but the value here could lie in a place Lay of Inchpast and Noddies Way. Inchpast has revived on the all weather of late but looks likely to find life tougher from his revised mark of 80, while Noddies Way finally broke his duck at Lingfield but this looks a great deal more competitive.

Place Lay Inchpast and Noddies Way
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[gerryatric1]

Doing exams at the moment, so no real time to analyse,

Salisbury 1.50

Quotation 2/1

4 Favourites outta 10 have won last time, average price being 3.8, Stoute has a great overall strike rate, and with 3yo

Salisbury 2.20
Has never been a race for the favourite, 1/10

I like russian art
but am backing Penny's Gift 12/1 Paddy Power

Good draw
Hannon&Oneill have won this race before

[apollo14]

Just one today....

1:40 York

Aegean Dancer (NB) @ 11/2

The lightning quick surface seems to have scared away a few runners which could mean Bertoliver has another decent chance of making all. It is likely though that his rivals will be a bit wiser to him this time though and under a penalty he could just be found out today. Green Park and River Falcon have both been threatening lately but both would perhaps prefer a slightly slower surface. Special Day has looked in the grip of the handicapper of late and may need some more respite which cannot be said about Fyodor who is very well handicapped but may struggle to get to the leaders round here from the rear. The one with conditions perfect for his reappearance is AEGEAN DANCER who has improved with each season so far and his trainer feels he could make the breakthrough into pattern company this season. He loves the quick ground and seems to go best when fresh. He also tends to race up with the pace so should be there with a chance if good enough and chances are he will be. He can power home to ensure the rested of his season will be raced off level weights.

[tomario]

1:40 York
Fyodor (NB) @ 9/1
Showed it runs best on the fast ground lto when beaten 1 3/4 Lengths by Royal Rock. Dropped back to its prefered 5f today and sure to give a good account of its self.
2:10 York
Flying Clarets @ 13/2
Can ignore its last race as it was its first run on the AW. Back on fast turf today running over its best trip Flying Clarets will make it very difficult for Promising Lead by trying to make all. As Promising Lead hasnt run for over six months and the trainer is a bit hit and miss at the moment, Flying Clarets may just hold on.
2:40 York
EW Young Pretender @ 14/1
I am taking a gamble on Young Pretender. Was lightly raced as a two year old, its breeding suggests that the distance will not be a problem and the fast ground will suit. Cant back the fav at that price with all its rivals due to improve.
3:10 York
New Seeker @ 10/1
Again i dont like the look of the fav. So taking a gamble on New Seeker returning to form. Not giving to much weight away today and could quite easily run these into submission. Has its favoured distance and ground and this track should be right up its street to.
3:45 York
Striving Storm @ 7/1
Most of its form is in class 1 and this is a serious drop in class. The stables horses are doing well first time out, though the majority find one to good their luck is due to change.
4:00 Salisbury
The Magic Blanket (NAP) @ 15/2
Showed it had come on over the winter and should get its double up today. Getting weight from its serious rivals has the scope for more improvement. Trainer looks to have cherry picked this race as its been 7 weeks since its win.
4:20 York
EW Whatyouwoodwishfor @ 16/1
Purely because the stable is in such good form, it has to be worth an E/W.
4:55 York
EW Great As Gold @ 33/1
I am going for Great as Gold in this one. As it looks like all the planets are in alingment. The ground is perfect, distance is perfect, the jockey is familiar with the horse, It has had a couple of runs to loosen it up and it has its cheek-pieces back on today.
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[richardmcfc]

I quite like Blythe Knight in the 3.10 at York. He won the race last year and depite carrying a heavier penalty I think that he can still defy the odds to win. Lang Shining although a quality horse is too short for me at 1.66 especially considering that he might not like the ground. Blythe Knight is very well suited to the ground ahead today and at 6's is very well priced

[Neil W]

Just one for me today


5.50 newm Brae Hill


M BELL introduces a well bred newcomer in the first race on the card this evening in the form of Brae Hill (IRE) .

Half Brother to numerous winners and looks the one most likely to be suited to todays minimum distance and with the trainer having had 4 wins from 4 runs from his 2 y o runners all bodes well for a big run with the trainer looking to keep that record intact.

Dangers look to be Countrywide City , but runners from that stable have tended to need the run--- Herring Senior from the P COLE yard , but on breeding this 5 furlong could prove to be on the short side-- and the biggest danger to the selection could well prove to be the Richard Hannon trained Prolific as 2 y olds from that yard must allways be considered, but i take M Bell to keep his 2 y o un-beaten record intact with another winner.
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[HolyRomanEmpire]

York 2:40 - Young Pretender

I am not convinced by Twice Over, not least because the stable were of major doubt before the defection of New Approach to go down the Dante & Derby route and the fact there are concerns about both trip and ground, voiced by the yard recently. Young Pretender did very well last term and subsequently joined Godolphin having been with John Gosden last term. Yes he is by Oasis Dream but looks to have inherited stamina from dams side, and more a promence on speed today, was unsuited behind Rio De La Plata on softer ground, todays ground will be ideal and Dettori on board rather than McCartney, who could be one to snatch a place. Godolphin had a great ride from Folk Opera yesterday and that could be a turning point. Open to plenty of improvement as a three year old and looked about the best of these last term, 14/1 a nice price without a risk.

York 4:55 - Bugsy's Boy

Bugsy's Boy did dissapoint at Bath last time, but he had previously looked on the upgrade, he did not look himself then and can land this for the impressiveGeorge Baker under Tolley Dean, the selection stays all day and despite being below form still battled on to the line and a mark of 72 ideal, Kayf Aramis looks to be the chief danger returned to York trying towin this for the third year running.

Newmarket 5:50 - Herring Senior

Herring Senior would have been the NAP today, as been waiting for Paul Cole to produce him as he is seen as one of the best youngsters they have, recieved some information this morning that he will go well, but they are wary of a couple of entries here and despite being quietly confident to be careful. A son of KKheleyf who won on debut over 5f at 2, out of a Aragon mare; Karenaragon who was placed over 5f at 2, said to be blessed with speed and been blowing them away at home and on the gallops.
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[manafana]

3:45 York
Benandonner @ 3
At his best right now with 2nd to Lang Shining last time and win before that, looks most solid of this field. And one to follow while hes in form here.

4:10 Perth
Ballynure @ 8
Won his two runs under this jockey now up in weights and up in trip but quick ground makes this all the more suitable for him. Has won round her as track suits his style and still well weighted relative to opponents.

Salisbury
4.35 Obe Royal
One I was on twice when gambled but just found one to good and started badly one time too, step up from 5f should suit and this quickish ground shouldn’t be a problem. And looks kind of race where touch could be landed.
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