HORSE RACING FRIDAY - SELECTIONS

[man o bong]

4.20 York

BUACHILL DONA

Was staying on very well over 5f at Chester on the 7th from a wide draw, the firmer going and extra furlong should be manageable and makes a quick reappearance after going into the notebook. Should come on again after a break since returning from Dubai. Gets a good draw from stall 6 and has won here at York in the past. His record here read 1 win and 1 place from three runs. DAMIKA is layable for me. Dandy Nichols comes into this three handed and although its not always the best policy to follow his apparent first string BUACHI DONA gets my vote.
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[aidanldrebin]

2.00 Newmarket - HONEST QUALITY

To the untrained eye this looks a horrible race, but it is a race which gets the juices flowing and it could be worth watching the race a few times afterwards as it’s sure to be a helpful for the rest of the season. I am going to side with the Henry Cecil trained filly who is a Elusive Quality half sister to smart French performers First Defence and Phantom Rose, both of whom were debut winners, and she comes from a yard who specifically target Newmarket as a starting place for their nicest fillies. The yards first runner of the season was a long last on Tuesday, but he was probably not one of the stables better horses and he ran at Yarmouth, a place Cecil has a shocking strike rate at. All in all, his filly here has the strongest credentials on paper and should be forward enough to score. Mambo Light from the Paul Cole yard ran a good race when third to Danehill Destiny over the same course, but over five furlongs, at the Craven meeting last month and the form has worked out well with the runner up, fourth, fifth and ninth all winners subsequently, but I feel she’ll be vulnerable to a newcomer here as she really had no excuses on her debut.

2.40 York - HONOLULU (NB)

This regally bred colt never ran as a two-year old, so there should be a lot more to come from him this season and he certainly showed enough smart form last season. After winning a Listed Race at Limerick, went to the Ebor Handicap here over course and distance where he ran a highly respectable second to Purple Moon and that rival went on to finish a gallant second in the Melbourne Cup. On his next start, he ran in the St Leger at Doncaster and there was probably a little too much expected of him when sent off favourite considering it was only his fifth run, but he actually ran a good race behind Lucarno that day and still showed signs of inexperience. Rounded off the season with a deceptively poor run in the Canadian International at Woodbine, but I think it’s fair to assume that was probably a step too far. Has been pleasing in his early work at Ballydoyle and the fact connections still had Septimus and Yeats in this but chose him is further proof they really like this colt and he can win this race before tackling bigger prizes later on in the season. Royal And Regal looks a very good colt and started his career with Michael Jarvis in winning style when grinding out success in testing conditions in the John Porter at Newbury, but this quick ground will not suit him and he may not even line up.

3.10 York - FESTIVALE (NAP)

This looks a competitive little race and I think it can go the way of the John Dunlop trained filly who was putting in some eyecatching late work in the Nell Gwyn last time when a never nearer third. The fact she needed her debut last season suggests she needs a run to reach peak fitness and it was certainly an encouraging run and it came over 7f, so the step up to a mile on quick ground shouldn’t tax her at all and she is the one they all have to beat. Makaaseb has long been the talking horse at Michael Jarvis’ yard, but disappointed after winning her maiden when finishing down the field in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. The testing ground was blamed that day and she now gets fast conditions, but the fact Richard Hills goes to ride Tajdeef at Newmarket is hardly a positive and she lacks a run too. Insaaf could be a big improver after a luckless reappearance on her reappearance a couple of weeks ago, but is held by the selection on their running in a Newmarket Listed Race late last season.

3.20 Newbury - DONAVITUM

I know the Gosden camp like this colt who is a half brother to the useful Comeback Queen (a debut winner at two over 7f), Tasdeed also a debut winner over 7f at two and to Wordly (runner up on debut as a juvenile over 7f). He is by Cadeaux Genereux which should inject some pace into him and the fact Gosden runs him in this race is significant as he won in 2005 with To Sender and Iceman the year before and both went on to compete in the Coventry Stakes next time out. As I said, he is well liked at Clarehaven and the yards record here of 10-48 with its juveniles (£1 stake = +45.93) speaks well for his chances and in an open race, he can take the honours under Rab Havlin. Gallagher from the Brian Meehan yard seems a likely type on paper as he is a half brother to debutant winner Roodolph and cost 110,000gns, but the yards juveniles tend to benefit from their first out and the same can be said for Ghaayer who is trained by Marcus Tregoning and his record with juveniles here for the last five seasons is 1-46.
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[HolyRomanEmpire]

Newmarket 4:45 - Old Romney

Old Romney could be ready to strike off an attractive mark returned to faster ground, he has shown nothing in his previous six outings including recent runs, but five of those runs would not have played to his advantages and his run on firmer ground at Nottingham actually worked out fairly well, so has to be of interest now thrown in off a mark of just 64, since his run at Pontefract he has joined Michael Wigham and now merits the attentions of good 3lb claimer Kirsty Milczerak who is very much value for her claim, this now represents his easiest chance to-date and 14lb lower than when chasing home New Star at Chester when not to favourably drawn and having to race wide, and 11lb lower than when not to far behind Smart Ass at this track last term, a half brother to Floristry, the son of Halling is capable of much better and at the forecast 33/1 he is worth a chance at a big price to show his capabilities with conditions to suit.

Newbury 3:55 - Yathreb

After three eye catching runs in 2007 it was dissapointing to see Yathreb so easily beaten at Haydock, but he ruined his chances that day by pulling way to hard, a hald brother to the top class Sakhee he is bred to improve with age, and should have much more to offer on better ground over this sort of trip and he is not one to write off to soon, facing Allied Powers who he is now 16lb better off at the weights today with more to come following his reapearance run, the Dunlop horses are in much better form now, and Richard Hills takes over from the inconsistent Eddie Ahern. Celt is one to note on his run behind Checklow, and though the winner won well that day hr did not look the most straight forward and it is hard to gage how much that run favours him now off this mark, and must surely be matched on his run with Colorado Blue.

York 2:10 - Sugar Ray

Sugar Ray entered for the Rose Bowl will need to win this today to stand a chance of getting in as things stand, better ground is likely to play to his strengths further, and differing conditions than when behind Pippa Greene when they last met on similar terms. The selection is open to further improvement and will not have to be ridden from the front to take this, and remains able to track the leaders and pounce.

York 4:20 - Kostar

Kostar has dropped into handicap company and won the last twice and he could make it a hattrick here for the now inform Cox yard. This is his trip and his ground and if fully wound up his turn of foot can be devastating and he has a touch of class about him. There is certainly more to come form Tombi, but he has something to find today and with the lack of fitness he could be vunreble, Damika and Wyatt Earp head the dangers, while respect has to be given to both Hinton Admiral and Buachaill Dona.

Kind Regards
HRE
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[bobdeblaa]

2.10 York Sugar Ray Stoutes seem to be flying at present. This one always looked the type to make a nice 4yo and won nicely on reappearance. Should win a nice prize this year and could take this on the way to better things

2.40 York Royal And Regal Presumably will only run if theres ran overnight. If he does hes got a huge chance as he looks a real good stayer in the making. Dont think Honolulu is one to trust. Alfie Flits may go well.

2.20 Newbury Fat Boy Tajdeef will tough to crack but this one looks all about speed With every possibility of a tactical affair, he should be in the best place and will prob dictate an easy pace.

[madbobmagee]

2.40 -- YORK -- ROYAL AND REGAL

If its let run then this horse is the one to beat. A quick check on any good form guide shows good recent form. Have to get it at early price though as it will surely plunge coming towards the race.

[martinallen72]

1:40 York
EW To The Point SP
looks a horse that would improve no-end despite winning at Warwick last time. Maggie Lou also created a favourable impression and I take these two to fight out the finish

2:10 York
EW Sugar Ray @ 3.75
Michael Stoutes 3 yr olds are in good form and although this one has gone up in the weights for his win last time, that might not be enough stop him improving. Furmigadelaguista seems to hold his form reasonably well and could be a lively outsider

2:40 York
Honolulu (NAP) SP
Honolulu ran some fantastic races last season as well as a couple of stinkers. His fitness has to be taken on trust but he ought to go well in this company. Sergeant Cecil may well bounce back on this very quick ground
EW Sergeant Cecil SP
still may not have seen the end of him yet. disappointing on softish ground last time, but back on a fast surface and with that run behind him, he may surprise a few today

3:10 York
Makaaseb SP
Makaaseb didnt seem to enjoy the soft ground in the Rockfel, but as a type who will improve as a 3 year old and abck on a fast surface she will prove hard to beat. Insaaf could be the one for the forecast with her stable in tremendous form
EW Insaaf SP
pleasing enough reappearnce and stable in hot form this week
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[Diesel]

YORK

2.10
Opposing Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can be very dangerous, as those of us who laid Tartan Bearer in the Dante will testify, but Sugar Ray got things all his own way up front when winning at Bath and faces much stronger rivals here. I doubt that Watamu can beat him, as he has seemed most at home on the all-weather of late. Pippa Greene's purple patch last season came with a fair amount of give underfoot, but he is lightly raced and remains an interesting horse for big handicaps. Dansili Dancer is another proven force at this level. He should go well if fully tuned up, but a 7lb penalty for a narrow success here on Wednesday will make following up difficult for the reliable Birkside.

Suggestion: Small Lay of Sugar Ray.

2.40
This could turn messy, as Royal And Regal may well be withdrawn if rain fails to arrive and there is a distinct lack of pace with or without him in the field. The natural starting point is Honolulu, who excelled from a mark of 111 in the Ebor here last summer but showed a tendency to wander off the bridle when beaten at short odds in the St Leger and Ascot's Cumberland Lodge. Sergeant Cecil's rich York pedigree is tempered by his loss of form since his win in this race last year and, with no little trepidation, Geordieland is suggested as a sporting alternative. Granted, his tendency to falter off the bit is a concern, but Jamie Osborne feels he may well have rectified some physical problems and, if that is the case, this may be the day for him to finally land a big one.

Suggestion: Back Geordieland to win.

3.10
Raymi Coya is useful yet needs a career best to defy her 5lb penalty, while Mistress Greeley is open to improvement but needs to take a fair step forward to progress past these useful rivals. Musical Bar is extremely well bred. However, assessing what she beat at Newbury is tough, so the lightly raced Makaaseb is nominated as the most likely winner. Granted, she failed to build on the promise of her Newmarket debut win when stepped up in class for the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes last October. Softish ground seemed against here there, but these conditions will suit and a string of big entries suggest Michael Jarvis still feels she has plenty of scope for improvement.

Suggestion: Back Makaaseb.

3.45
Twelve face the starter, but Marvellous Value and Rash Judgement look very much the pair to focus on. Marvellous Value has lived up to his name by winning both his starts this spring and the form of his impressive Haydock success was franked when the placed horses dominated a Beverley handicap last week. The ground will be much faster on this occasion, though, and it remains to be seen whether he will be equally effective on it. Rash Judgement thrived on racing as a juvenile and ran a corker when hampered at Sandown on his reappearance. He looks bound to go close with Moore aboard for the first time, while Hamish McGonagall is another worth a positive mention after his promising effort at Thirsk.

Suggestion: Back Rash Judgement.

4.20
Another fiendishly difficult York sprint handicap. Richard Fahey broke his duck for the week in Thursday's finale and will have Wyatt Earp well primed to try and repeat last year's win from a slightly lower mark. He'll be all the better for a pipe opener at Beverley, while Damika is in the form of his life having been touched off in a hot contest at Newmarket and his trainer Richard Whitaker has a fair record at this track. Mastership is one to keep an eye on with the summer in mind on his debut for John Quinn, while Dandy Nicholls saddles two fancied contenders in Machinist and Buachaill Dona. Adrian Nicholls has plumped for Buachaill Dona, who ran well from a poor draw at Chester, and this will be the true test of whether he is at his very best over six furlongs.

Back Wyatt Earp to place.

4.55
The obvious one here is Cape Colony, who got off the mark in willing fashion on Kempton's Polytrack before following up in similar style on easy turf at Windsor. He's still fairly treated and looks bound to go close if he handles this faster surface, but don't be surprised if Laterly proves a viable Each Way alternative. Thomas Tate's horses are in fine fettle and Laterly is bred to be well served by middle distances this season. Granted, he finished behind Full Speed at Redcar last time, but this faster ground will suit his flowing action much better and by York standards this handicap looks a shade light on really progressive rivals.

Suggestion: Back Laterly win and place.
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Friday's Selections


3:10 York

Makaaseb (NAP) @ 2/1

A very good looking Listed event on paper and Chelsea striker Claudio Pizarro is sure to be among the spectators at the Knavesmire as he is the proud owner of his Group 3 winning filly here Raymi Coya. She won that Group 3 at Newmarket in pleasing enough fashion but the form of the race has taken enough knocks and she is up against it here shouldering the penalty on her reappearance against some really promising individuals. One of those is Sir Michael Stoute Mistress Greeley who won last year on her debut in a decent Nottingham maiden but pulled very hard and was well beaten when stepped up to Group company. She is obviously better than that but needs to step up to figure which can also be said about Festivale, who has been running creditably in pattern races without actually managing to land much of a blow. The filly that could potentially blow them all away is Michael Jarvis’ well regarded MAKAASEB (NAP) who went into possibly every racing notebook in the country when winning her maiden on debut at Newmarket cosily from Queen Of Naples with the pair pulling well clear of the rest. She was then all the rage for the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes in which she travelled well off the pace but couldn’t pick up in the soft ground encountered that day. It was considered a very disappointing performance by many despite the fact she was only 4 lengths behind and the fact that her trainer was at the beginning of the season thinking of aiming her at the 1000 Guineas speaks volumes of the ability he feels she possesses. Back on firm ground here and over the ideal trip of a mile she should be able to show her true colours and prove what a top class filly in the making she is before going on to take up her entries in both the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. The one to give her most to do could be the once raced Musical Bar who is a half-sister to the star 3yo filly of last year Finsceal Beo and another with one or two fancy entries. On this day though the selection could prove too strong.


2:40 York

EW Sergeant Cecil @ 12/1

Quite a simple puzzle to solve really but still a cracking race and Honolulu is the hot favourite for Aiden OBrien after his 2nd in the Ebor followed by a third in the St Leger last year. He looks a cut above the rest on form but is very short considering that many of the stables string have needed their first outing this season and he also would have preferred a bit more juice in the ground. Royal And Regal is also unproven in such fast ground and can be taken on too. With the dead eight going to post it is very tempting to go with Geordieland Each Way in the hope that Jamie Osbourne has found the key to him as he is pretty nailed on to make the frame but a chance here is taken on the old warrior SERGEANT CECIL who is still well capable of a big performance in races of this nature having won this last year and goes well in quick ground. Rod Millman is in very good form at present and there would not be a dry eye in the house were Alan Munro able to steer home this grand old horse in front. He was well behind Royal And Regal last time but generally comes on a great deal for his first run each season and he has a brilliant record here having won on the Knavesmire no less than 4 times, including when the Doncaster Cup was run here and also the Ebor. To offer 12/1 about this former Group 1 winner is an insult and excellent value for us punters and he can go close.


2:50 Newbury

Clowance @ 9/4

Kotsi sets a very good standard on form having ran subsequent 1000 Guineas placed Spacious close on only her 2nd start last year before running in Group 1 company when outclassed by the likes of Listen and Proviso. It is however a standard that is there to be shot at and there are plenty of potential improvers lurking which could lower her colours, especially considering despite shaping like she would stay further she is far from certain to stay the extra 2f on breeding. Roger Charlton’s CLOWANCE on the other hand seemed to relish every yard of this trip when confirming her debut promise last year to win a good looking C&D maiden last time. That form has been franked in no uncertain terms by the 3rd horse Miracle Seeker which went on to record a Listed success the other day. There were plenty of other well regarded types in behind and the authoritive nature of the victory promises that there is plenty more to come especially considering that the stable’s horses had been struggling for peak form at the time. She is entered in the Oaks and wouldn’t be too unfancied for that race at odds of around 18/1 and she can Lay her credentials on the line here for all to see and indeed take the same route as the likes of Islington and Eswarah on the road to Epsom.


3:00 Newmarket

Wingbeat @ 11/10

With Godolphin showing signs of hitting top gear just recently with good showings from Rio De La Plata, Campanologist and also with their first winner of the British turf season Folk Opera on Wednesday, it could be worth siding with their only runner of the day WINGBEAT here. He looked a real hot prospect when winning in good style despite racing keenly on soft ground which he might well have been unsuited by being out of the high class American miler Elusive Quality who excelled on a fast surface. He gets exactly those conditions today and given that he holds 2 Group 1 entries at Royal Ascot he could prove a level or two above these rivals today. Frankie Dettori comes here despite a possible ride in the Yorkshire Cup on Sergeant Cecil which is another indication of the regard in which this 3yo colt is held. He should take the world of beating if straight for his reappearance but things do not always go to plan and Striking Spirit is a live danger who has solid form in good races. He could take advantage of any chinks in the selection’s armour. Sophie’s Girl is another that could figure for Brian Meehan who is just now hitting top gear but really and truly this should be a stepping stone for the selection.


4:20 York

Wyatt Earp (NB) @ 9/2

Not as open and competitive as first appearances would have you think and the draw which has had a serious effect on the results of sprint races this week could again come into play so the likes of Dream Theme, Tombi, Atlantic Story and Zomerlust have it all to do from double figure stalls. Tombi is a particularly difficult one to pass over given his progressive looking profile but it would be a heroic performance if he could overcome that disadvantage on his comeback run. Machinist looks in fine fettle after running 3 time Group 1 winner Reverence close last time and has the plum draw in stall 1 but could find conceding weight at the top of a handicap a tough ask at his age as he would probably need a career best. Damika and Kostar both also look high enough due to recent exploits, especially the former who is now 10lbs higher than when winning last summer. The one who has everything in his favour on this occasion is WYATT EARP from the in-form Richard Fahey yard. He has won three times in good races at this course in the past including this race last year from a 2lbs higher mark and loves 6 furlongs on lightning quick ground. Didn’t get those conditions often last year resulting in him slipping in the weights a touch and with a well handicapped look about him, he looks poised to take advantage here having blown away the cobwebs last time and from a handy pitch in stall 5.


7:05 Aintree

EW Double Vodka @ 16/1

A good evening meeting at Aintree and I just couldn’t resist a crack at this competitive looking handicap hurdle in which former Michael Jarvis inmate Kings Head will be fancied by many to follow up his recent Huntingdon victory. Up 11lbs here though in a much better race and he looks to be a little short in the betting on that evidence. Moon Star is of interest having won a good race last time at Bangor and with AP McCoy retaining the ride he must go close but a bit of value has been sniffed out hopefully here in the shape of Chris Grant’s consistent gelding DOUBLE VODKA who despite a string of recent good efforts in top company finds himself down to his last winning mark. He has also won over this course and distance in the past and loves a quick surface so stepping back down to a more suitable trip here rather than 2m6f he can go close with promising young conditional Campbell Gillies taking off what could be a valuable further 5lbs here. Another worth watching is Day To Remember now John Quinn is in better form. He has been feeling his way into a summer jumping campaign having been extremely lightly raced since 2006 and showed signs of a revival when 5th last time having just weakened close home and is dropping in the weights all the time.


Good Luck

[deco121]

Some very strong fancies this evening so hopefully I'll have the chance to post them up here. Mostly laying again today but there are two that I'll be backing over the course of the days action and they should all be good enough to get their heads in front.


Fat Boy (2:20) Newbury * Brian Meehan's Skadrak will have to improve a fair bit to get involved here and so this essentially looks a match between Tajdeef and Fat Boy with the vote going to the latter. Tajdeef was impressive as a 2yo winning impressively on his debut and then putting up 2 very creditable efforts in Group 2 and Group 1 races. He was, however, a little disappointing on his reappearance this season when beaten by Sir Gerry over 6f at Ascot - although the race wasn't really run to suit. He is an obvious danger but things may get tactical again in this small field and Fat Boy can hold off the challenge of his main rival. Fat Boy progressed well last season winning on 3 occasions and finishing runner-up in a Group 2 race at Goodwood aswell. He put in a fine display on his reappearance this season when only just caught close home over 7f and the return to his favoured 6f will do nothing but help him here. The ground is ideal for him at the moment and if the rain stays away then he will be very tough to beat.
@ 8/11 (took 5/4)


Allied Powers (3:55) Newbury * narrowly beaten three runs back but has since made amends winning his last two starts in very impressive fashion and there could be even more to come today. He's turned out quickly here (missed a few engagements ealier in the week) under a penalty so is officially well treated. He faces some unexposed rivals here but he clearly sets the standard and there'll be no surprises if he lands the hat-trick here today.
@ 13/8 (took 2/1)



best of luck,

Deco.
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[mike mercury]

3.55 NEWBURY LOSER
YATHREB[b]
Gradually stepping up in trip and blinkered first time today , enjoys a 13 lb pull with the fav for 7l Dunlop 2/4 in May over this trip here not fussed about jockey but he is 2/6 for trainer same month
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[qhstatistics]

4:20 York

machinist, he is out again after a 6 day break where he seems to be getting back into form and i feel he was unlucky to beat reverance who is a classy horse
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[deco121]

Very happy with today's results and even managed to back the double at 6.60. Heading out before any of these race this evening but hopefully I'll have a bigger bank balance tomorrow morning when checking the results.


Kings Head (7:05) Aintree * rated 91 on the flat and finally got his act together over hurdles last time on fast ground at Huntingdon as he beat a pretty competitive field with consummate ease. He's turned out quickly here under a penalty, is open to plenty of improvement and looks very well treated especially as he's due to race from 4lb higher in the near future. He has conditions in his favour again here and at 5/2 he looks a cracking bet. NB


Always Beautiful (7:20) Cork * this looks a match on paper between the selection and the John Oxx trained newcomer Erzen. The latter is well bread but the selection has the advantage of a run under her belt and that race in which she came 4th has worked out very nicely. The winner, Winchester, has some high profile entries while the runner-up Moonstone (ran well behind the mightily impressive Lush Lashes two days ago) is also held in very high regard by connections. The selection split another two well thought of Aidan O Brien 3 year olds in the shape of William Hogarth and Bashkirov so with improvement expected she certainly looks the one to beat here under similar conditions.


The Last Derby (8:50) Cork * finished 3rd behind Gwens Spirit and Bodalboy in Gowran Park bumper 19 days ago and the form was given a boost by the runner-up, Bodalboy, at Killarney a few days ago as he absolutely hacked up without coming off the bridle. The selection should improve on that run and with Nina Carberry in the plate once more he should take all the beating with conditions favourable.


Ballygologue (9:10) Dundalk * well backed and won impressively on her handicap debut over 1m4f at Killarney last Monday and should follow up again this evening. The form of the race was severely franked by the runner-up two days ago as he finished runner-up to Adored in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas. The selection looks very well treated here under her penalty and although the drop back in trip isn't ideal, she should still prove far too good for tonight's rivals. NAP


Zafayra (9:40) Dundalk * won well on her debut over 1m at this track and improved on that form last time when runner-up to the highly regarded and potentially very talented Chinese White when stepped up to 1m1f. She comes back to Dundalk this evening and tackles 1m4f for the first time. The trip should bring about more improvement in her and as she handles this track well she looks a sound bet to finish off the card on a high.



best of luck,

Deco.
_________________
Racing tips in 2007 = +201.04 (LSP)
Racing tips in 2008 = +82.31 (LSP)

* stats updated July 29th