HORSE RACING SATURDAY - SELECTIONS

[aidanldrebin]

Not much value knocking around today and there is no point attempting to look for it as you'll probably just find big priced losers (famous last words!). I did fancy Phoenix Tower for the Lockinge, but the rain has put me off in what looks a modest renewal of that race.

2.00 Thirsk - EXCELLENT SHOW

She is an Exceed And Excel half sister to the smart Right Answer and also related to Twenty Questions, a winner on her one and only career start at two over 5f. Also, the dam is related to the speedy Mind Games and this colt cost 96,000gns and comes from the all conquering yard of Bryan Smart who has his juveniles in superb form of late. He has shown he can ready his two-year olds to score on debut and this colt should do just that. The Mick Channon trained Daanaat will be popular with the yard in tremendous form, but I feel the selection may just have too much for him on this occasion.

3.00 Newmarket - ENROLLER (NB)

He is trained by William Muir and all he has done is improve for every run and after three promising runs as a juvenile, kicked this season off with an authoritative win in a 12f maiden at Leicester which he won by an eased down 2¾ lengths. However, it's his next run which really takes the eye as he gave All The Aces a real good fight when going down by just a head back at Leicester in a decent little handicap and that rival has since just been beaten by the smart Doctor Fremantle in Group 2 company. The rain that has fallen has dramatically helped his chances and though racing off an 8lbs higher mark, should still prove too good for his rivals. His biggest threat comes from Fiulin who was an easy winner at Doncaster last month in testing conditions, but has quite a bit to find with the selection and races off level weights with him here.

3.20 Newbury - COLONY (NAP)

He has steadily been brought through the ranks and after making his debut in a newcomers event at Newmarket (July), in which he finished ninth, came with a strong late run to score in a useful enough Bath maiden. He appreciated the step up to a mile that day and once again relished stepping up in trip, this time to 10f when coming from last to first in what was supposed to be a highly competitive handicap at Sandown. Should come on for that run and the turn of foot displayed that day suggests he hasn't reached the peak of his powers and 8lbs hike in the weights unlikely to stop him. Also, Stoute tends to run his future pattern horses in this race and in recent years has run horses such as Regal Flush and Maraahel and won it 2006 with Pearly King. William Blake is a big danger and has progressed no end in his three runs to date, but may just lack that killer turn of foot Colony possesses, but a useful prospect all the same.

4.30 Newbury - HIP

She is a filly by Pivotal and out of a useful mare and started her career in the best possible fashion when scoring in a 6f maiden at Windsor last summer. It is usually a good sign when horses from the Ed Dunlop yard score on debut as it means they are half decent and I know that connections were keen to run her in the Rockfel, but she had a slight setback and was put away for the year. Said to have come back to the yard in great form and the amount of promise she showed on debut suggests she is smart and despite her lack of experience can take what could turn out to be a decent contest. Her list of main dangers include Shabiba, who disappointed in the Nell Gwyn, La Coveta, who beat Dar Re Mi but may want further and also May Day Queen from the Hannon yard who made a satisfactory reappearance a couple of weeks ago.

5.30 Newbury - AQLAAM

He is a son of Oasis Dream who stood out a mile in the paddock prior to his debut in a useful Ascot maiden and after showing good early speed, was run out of it under a tender ride from Richard Hills by Atlantic Sport and Skadrak. The three were well clear of the fourth horse, Hawaana and along with Moral Duty (fifth), Arctic Cape (sixth) and Mega Watt (eighth) all winners since, it is a pretty good indicator it was a decent maiden. He is trained by Willie Haggas who has his string in good shape after a slow start and the St James's Palace entry should score here before going on to better things. Film Maker from the Brian Meehan yard really impressed me when running on to be fifth in a backend Newmarket maiden last season, but the yards horses have tended to need their first run and the trainers strike here over the last five seasons is terrible (9%). Of the newcomers, Amber Queen and Karoush are two that should go well, but I can't see them being good enough to beat the selection
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[mike mercury]

3.20 NEWBURY
RAMONA CHASE
Ran ok seasonal debut here over inadequate 7f couldnt land a blow but ran on well to take 4th , latest run at Newmarket behind Dr Faustus was nice pulled a bit to hard though and will hopefully settle a bit better today . The danger in my eyes is the Stoute trained COLONEY and it might pay to have a small saver on him [ trians DrFaustus] that said i think Ramona will aquit himself well today
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[davidmoyes]

2.15 Bangor - GOLDEN OAK - Golden Oak is the only distance winner in the race today and he won a similair race to this in a Class 5 contest when scoring by 3 lengths over todays distance. Steps up to Class 4 for this race but if that run is anything to go by he can run well. THe jockey from that day is back on board today too.

He can be taken at 12/1 now so I am going to go e/w for insurance on this one.
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[martinallen72]

2:45 Newbury
EW Creachadoir @ 6.5
A lot depends on whether the rain comes! If it gets to Newbury, it will not help my tip.

Cesare will enjoy any rain softened ground, but has never bagged a Group 1 and as age progresses that may seem unlikely. He won well last time but that was a depleted listed event and he will need to produce a career best at 7 to win this.

Pheonix Tower is unexposed and lightly raced but this is a tall order.

Tariq is also improving but this looks a furlong too far.

Creachadoir has top class form. His last run was slightly disappointing but the race wasnt truly run and a better gallop today will help. He acts on turf and although very soft ground would hinder him, he has won on good ground and was a creditable 4th on good to soft over too far a distance in the Champion Stakes. 1 mile is his distance and if the ground doesnt deteriorate too badly, he will be hard to beat today. His stable have also turned a bit of a corner in recent weeks which bodes well. I just hope any rain doesnt get into the ground too much.
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[HolyRomanEmpire]

Newbury 2:45 - Haradasun - (NAP)

I have been excited about the prospect of seeing Coolmore's latest addition make his UK debut, and I am not the only one, Aidan O'Brien is said to be thrilled to train the son of Fusaichi Pegasus who has already ammassed over $2m in his native Australia. Haradasun is a half brother to Elvstroem a Dubai Duty Free winner, who endured a fantastic end of season in his homeland battling Cox Plate winner El Segundo in that race and leading up to that run. The five year old has been the speculation of various reports from the yard and has been described as a real machine, and impressed so much he was taken out of his intended debut in preference of heading straight into the Lockinge. His performances in Australia were very impressive and Aiden O'Brien has argued that he was pehaps made to much use of for an animal blessed with his talent, this is a real machne.

Newbury 2:10 - Regal FLush - (NB)

Godolphin seem to be coming to hand after a shaky start to the UK campaign, but there international team also looked below par. Wingbeat and Folk Opera have both won recently, which makes Regal Flush a much more appealing betting proposition, the selection stepped into Group company with ease last term after earning some very valuable stripes in handicaps, and was not disgraced behind Lucarno in the St Ledger, justifying connections supplementation. The son of Sakhee has shown his talents on both softer and faster ground and the change in conditions should not hampen and he is the class act in the field.

Newbury 3:55 - Royal Rock

Chris Wall come here two handed with two potential progressive improvers in Royal Rock and Sundae, and while the latter looks one to watchg this term he could need this run and it is his stable mate who makes most appeal, having said to be unsuited by conditions on a firmer surface last time he did it well and won, George Baker keeps the ride on this one and after that performance is now 3 from 3, and looks set to make it 4 today. Slight ease in the ground makes his price more appealing and should have a lot more to offer having got his initial run out of the way, Baby Strange could be the biggest danger.

Kind Regards
HRE
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[m3tobe]

my only pick of the day


a GOOD EW on Beauchamp Viceroy at the 3.55 newbury currently at 25s at William Hill.

gerald butler has only just started putting richard hughes on a few of his horses, had a winner last saturday only horse with hughes on won.

and we all know how richard hughes grabs wins with outsiders.

the horse has run class 1s and 2s but with not so promiseing finishes at 5, 9 and 8th but saying that he hasnt run 6f for over a year now and when he did he won. the horse pulls hard which is good for the 6f the last race he lost it on the last (didnt like the distance 7f), and the winner a class horse ceremonial jade.
to me this is the best bet of the day yet another hard day of racing

[manafana]

2:50 Bangor
Scotland Yard
Piran could win but I think hes a bit of risk as cant be sure what he could be after a light career. Thiers questions over jonjos whos form isn’t all that. The King horse looks biggest danger off bottom weight, but I prefer Scotland yard who has experience over the fences with a win and will not mind this fast ground

3:35 Newmarket
Ajaan (NAP)
Yes the favourite but he looks so much better than his opposition here. Had very good seasonal run when bumping with his new rivals. Step up in trip likely to suit him here and blinkers need to be working to full effect to keep him from wandering.

4:35 Bangor
Woolly Bully
A horse Alert of mine of interest as going fresh should not be a problem. Claimer lightens the weight here. Probably doesn’t like a really fast 2miles so ground slowing up should suit him better here. Winnable race by looks of it.
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[oscarwolfe]

SUNDAE 3.55 Newbury
Chris Wall has 2 runners here and It's reported the trainer hasn't had a straight forward spring, Yet the favourite Royal Rock won 1st time up!

The one for me though is his other runner Sundae@ 4 times the price who has contested better races than his stablemate. Can go well fresh, and, he was 3rd in the Ayr Silver Cup which was an extremely good effort considering he had went up 23lb for winning 4 on the bounce. Royal Rock was 2 lengths behind Northern Dare at Newmarket last August giving it around 12lb and runs off 3lb higher here, whereas SUNDAE was around the same distance behind Northern Dare in the Silver cup giving it 10lb,s and runs off a lower mark here and the Jockey carries 10lb less, also will not be inconvenienced by the forcast rain. The value for me is not with the favourite!!!

However if Royal Rock does oblige it boosts the form of Orpinindeed which runs in the 4.55 Thirsk.......


FONDLED 2.25 Newmarket
Fondled is well worth a touch!
She ran well on the July course here last August when not getting the best of runs. That race has thrown up numerous winners and is the type to Improve for James Fanshawe as a 4 Yr Old.
Oceana Gold has won here but that was off 20lb lower and has been bridesmaid on his last 2, albeit against some decent horses. Viva Vettori has to prove himself on turf but this slower going may suit and of the rest, most who don't appear in good enough form, Royal Island could go well at a price and is my selection for the F/Cast

[scraz22]

Ive been really busy at work lately so havnt posted in a while,2 selections today from 2 different yards so hopefully we can go back to winning ways.

2.00 thirsk sparta rebel.This opening race seems a fairly open maiden but i think this one is an interesting runner.This stable knows how to get their young ones ready for an occasion and neil callan on board is a positive.At 16-1 this one is worth a look.

2.35 thirsk .touchdown On its debut this one showed a bit of potential and this looks a good opportunity.Last time was a bit green at the beginning but hopefully today will be the day it breaks its maiden

best of luck

[welshie1]

Newbury 2:10- Regal Flush NAP

This is Regal Flush's first start for Godolphin and I expect it to be a winning start. He finished 4th in the St Leger in his last start and also won valuable handicaps at Goodwood and Haydock. Looks like a promising sort who will improve and this ground will suit him much more than his main opponent Tranquil Tiger who likes it faster.

Newbury 2:45- Creachadoir NB

Creachadoir is certainly one of the classiest Horses in todays Lockinge but he did run poorly in the Dubai Duty Free in his last start but I am prepared to forgive him for that run and I expect a big run today. He was runner up in both French and Irish 2000 Guineas last term and showed that he is a really class horse when he came close to beating top Hong Kong Miler Good Ba Baa in December. The form of that run is very good considering their was also some good sorts behind him that day. Godolphin are starting to come in to form and they have a decent record in the Lockinge backing all the Saaed Bin Suroor runners in the Lockinge over the last ten seasons would have yielded a £19.62 level stakes profit. Creachadoir will run a big race today.
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[Shrews]

3.20 Newbury

15 entered

All winners in the last 10 years have been drawn 8 or under (although admittedly some of those races had less than 8 runners )

This leaves just 8 of the 15

All winners in the last 10 years have been weighted 8st 7lb - 9st 6lb

This removes 1, leaving 7

Only 1 horse has won at 20/1 or greater

This removes 2 likely 20/1+ horses, leaving 5

9 of the last 10 winners had a previous run in the same season, leaving 4

Better Hand 16/1
Ramona Chase 9/1
Master Spy 10/1
Silver Rime 8/1

All decent enough prices to take on the Stoute hotpot Colony. Better Hand the choice as he's been running with a better calibre of horse

[getpiping]

2.45 - Newbury - Cesare NAP

The talking horse today seems to be O'Briens Haradsun however for a horse who has never raced in this country and hasnt won in something like his last seven races Im happy to take him on. In truth I had strongly fancied Cesare for this with or without the prescence of Haradsun, and you could not fail to be impressed with the way he won lto at Ascot. I think he has improved since last season, and could be one the top milers to follow this year.

3.20 - Newbury - Colony NB

Sir Michael Stoutes lightly raced runner Colony looks one to keep on the side of this year, considering his cosy win in a competitive race lto. There is no doubt more to come and should be backed today.

5.00 - Newbury - Gaia Prince

Despite Chapple-Hyams newcomer Amaakin making his debut here, I think his greeness when getting withdrawn last time out offers significant doubt to look for better value, and Amanda Perrets runner made a pleasing reappearance when chasing home the decent Checklow lto. If this one gets a positive ride right up there with the leaders, I can see him just keep galloping and be difficult to get past.