The Duke - An odds-on banker or Shocking Value??

mogga82 · Group 3 Class Joined: 21 Mar 2008 Posts: 92

The Duke of Marmalade has done nothing wrong this season, remains un-beaten, was ultra impressive at Ascot last time & is trained by the group1 winning machine that is Aiden O'brian - on paper at lesat then it really does look banker material for the King George on Saturday.

However, I may be mad but i'm going to be looking to take it on...for the following reasons

It has been impressive this year, but I don't think it has yet beaten a genuine top class group1 horse - added to that it was always seen as a miler as a three year old - it's proved that it gets the mile 1/4 but for me it is too bigger leap of faith that it will get a mile 1/2 in a truely run group1 at odds on

So what do we take it on with - Youmzain has high class form - 2nd in this last year, 2nd in the Arc & a great win from the high class Soldier of Fortune last time - again i don't like the price - 3/1 is too short for a horse with a very poor win percentage & who has always looked below real top class - also needs to be held up which means it could need luck

The one I like is LUCARNO - has some high class form in the book - 4th in lat years derby (in front of Soldier of Fortune) & then went & won the St Leger - proved its as good as ever when beating Papal Bull at Newmarket last tume - can race handy & will stay every yard of the mile & 1/2 - The Duke is going to have to be very good to get past if Lucarno gets 1st run.....I took some of the 14/1 on Sunday but at 8/1 it still looks a good bet to me

Thoughts?
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Paul Gascoigne, Gascoigne, he's done his country proud, so sing his name out loud

man o bong · Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject:

jamiess09 · Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:06 am Post subject:

I have tipped Youmzain too win on all 3 off last outings and he has made me a nice profit but the fact is Duke of Marmalade is the best older horse in training and i dont think we have seen the best off him yet.. Aidan O Brien and Johnny Murtagh have both said he didn't do an awful lot when he hit the front at Ascot when he powered clear and won by 3 lengths pulling away from a decent field.. The trip doesnt bother me what so ever.. I have no problems backing odds as long as im confident with the selection.. I think he will be closer too evens nearer the start as im expecting the money too come in for Youmzain..

The Executioner · Group 2 Class Joined: 31 Mar 2008 Posts: 222

For me it's just one of those races that I couldn't back the ' Duke ' but equally so wouldn't Lay him - so it's a case of sit back and enjoy the race !
How boring was that response ?

mogga82 · Group 3 Class Joined: 21 Mar 2008 Posts: 92

Jamie - how can the trip not bother you what so ever, when even Aiden O'brian isn't sure that he Duke will stay?
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Paul Gascoigne, Gascoigne, he's done his country proud, so sing his name out loud

mgnapster · Classic Winner Joined: 12 Nov 2007 Posts: 671

For me its a bit of a disappointing race. Small field, will be tactical and with more than one from Ballydoyle in the field you know they are going to be working together to get one of them (The Duke) past the post first. If some of the top 3 year olds were in the race it would have been a great opportunity to see just how good some of last years just below classic form horses fair against some decent sorts from this year. I would have loved to have seen New Approach in this race. I'd fancy him to walk all over The Duke over this trip. If i do have a bet, even though the ground wont be in his favour i may still take a chance on Literato.. He is way better than what he has shown so far and its only a matter of time until he comes good in my opinion.. But Saturdays card is shaping up to be a cracker with some corking looking big handicaps.. Plus the big group 2 at York looks like a much better match up of 3 year olds against older horses and i really fancy the chances of Collection if he runs in that one.

Kingsdyke35 · Group 2 Class Joined: 03 Jan 2006 Posts: 141

Are you joking? I will Lay the duke all day. Its 2f too far.

jamiess09 · Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:19 am Post subject:

In reply too those worried about the trip.. Why wont he i ask? He has won 2 Group 1s this season in France and Ireland over a 1mile3 so what makes people think he wont stay a 1mile4 an extra furlong.. The field he beat in France was a high class field.. He wasnt stopping in the Prince of Wales he pulled well clear and ran on..

turfline · Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject:

Actually Jamiess09 it was 1 mile 2 furlongs and 110yrds on both runs a total of 330 yards short or 1 1/2 furlongs and that is a big differance, Mount Nelson finished fast over 1 mile 2 furlongs and you could get 40/1 with SportingBet for the race, he might well do it but not many horses have won the King George that have not won over the distance. Win