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mogga82
Group 3 Class
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 92
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 Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Champion Stakes |
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Any early thoughts on this race?
Looking at the prices I don't think there is any value in New Approach as it wasn't overly impressive in the Irish version when taking on a weaker field...
At 13/2 (Coral) TWICE OVER looks very interesting to me - started the year with a narrow verdict over Ravens Pass & that looks even better form now - It was fav for the Derby but missed the race after a below par effort in the Dante, but if Cecil has the horse back to it's best then I think it has every chance of giving New Approach a real race
I don't really bet e/w but the untra consistant & under-rated Pipedreamer must be cracking e/w value at 9/1
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aidanldrebin
At Stud
Joined: 25 Sep 2007
Posts: 2846
Location: Surrey
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| Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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Sad to see hardly anyone has taken an interest in this thread. It is always a tricky race as the form isn't as reliable due to horses losing their form or going over the top. New Approach has had a hard season which included the Derby and though he has since shown his wellbeing by winning the Irish Champion, firstly what did he beat and secondly he didn't beat them by far. At the current prices, he is a no no for me.
I agree that Twice Over looks good value and comes here fresher than most and was seriously unlucky behind Russian Cross last time and also has the beating of City Leader. Pipedreamer looks just short of this grade and has continously fallen short in these kind of races, but this is a weak Group 1 and he likes the track so again, he looks good value, though more for the place perhaps.
At the moment, I like the look of Liberate in the Cesarewitch; jumping yards do well in this race and he didn't have the race run to suit at Royal Ascot and fitness shouldn't be too much of an issue as Hobbs won this with Detroit City after a long absence and Liberate is sure to be ready for the forthcoming jumps season too. A couple of others who interest me at the moment are Minkowski and Hits Only Vic.
The Dewhurst looks interesting, though not happy that Jamie Spencer has been booked for Delegator. He has looked a machine on both occasions he has run and his turn of foot has to be seen to be believed. Think 16 on Betfair looks a fair price and will be delighted to get anything bigger than that nearer the time as he has looked a serious horse and the form of both his maiden wins have been boosted. Ashram and Huntdown the obvious two others who should be involved, especially the latter who needed this step up to 7f.
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rolly02
Handicapper
Joined: 27 Aug 2008
Posts: 13
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:49 am Post subject: |
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Gents,
I am heading over to Newmarket for Champions day and need all the help I can get. I agree that New Approach looks poor value in the Champion and actually like the look of Traffic Guard. It is currently 14/1 which looks big to me as it gave New Approach a scare on ground that wouldnt have suited him. It also gets a 3lb swing in the weights! I am a big fan of Henry Cecil however and as this is likely to be my only trip to newmarket Id love nothing more than to see him lift yet another group one!
Fingers crossed Saturday will pay for itself!! |
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shearernumber9
Handicapper
Joined: 15 Oct 2008
Posts: 10
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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This looks a weak group one (don't we always say this!).
The French should always be respected in this race and I also think Pipedreamer might finally get his group 1. New Approach is the class but can you trust him? |
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shearernumber9
Handicapper
Joined: 15 Oct 2008
Posts: 10
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Russian Cross looks the best of the French to me. |
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TheDukeOfMarmalade
2yo
Joined: 03 Sep 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: The Champion Stakes |
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Hi Guys where is everyone's opinion with only a few days to go until the race......
I think that New Approach is the most likely horse to win the race by a mile. It looks a very weak Champion and it is all well and good saying that New Approach beat nobody in the Irish version but he could only beat what was in front of him and also I find it hard to pick out a horse in this field that is going to beat him....Russian Cross over this trip at 9/2 (no thanks), Pipedreamer runs well but never wins, Twice Over is the only horse I think that can pose a threat to New Approach and is reasonable value at 11/2 but he probably wont get the trip as well as New Appraoch. New Approach at 5/4 is a fair price I think and I am going to back him and hope Manning drops him in and lets his class tell in the final few furlongs...if that happens he should win with a bit to spare. |
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aidanldrebin
At Stud
Joined: 25 Sep 2007
Posts: 2846
Location: Surrey
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: |
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Pleased I took the 16 on Betfair about Delegator judging by this piece in the RP today:
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DELEGATOR continued to shorten in the ante-post markets on Wednesday for Saturday's Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, and is now as short as 13-2 with Stan James, having opened the day at 14-1.
The Brian Meehan-trained two-year-old has only had two starts so far, finishing a length behind Wingwalker on his debut, before winning at Newmarket. The form of that win was strengthened last weekend when Four Winds, who finished third in the race, managed to repeat the feat in theGroup 3 Autumn Stakes at Ascot.
Damian Walker from Tote said: "Delegator has been the best backed horse in the Dewhurst and has shortened from 25-1 into 8-1 in the past two days.
"Rip Van Winkle will start a short-priced favourite but there are plenty of punters out there who think Delegator will give him a race."
Gee Dee Nen hardened as second favourite for the Tote.com Cesarewitch, being clipped into 6-1 from 7-1 by VC Bet on Wednesday. The five-year-old hasn't been seen since winning at the Shergar meeting at Ascot in August.
Neal Wilkins from VC Bet said: "Originally this gamble was inspired by a tipping line, but in the last few days money has continued for Gee Dee Nen and, although it is unlikely that he will dispute favouritism with Askar Tau, his supporters are certainly on good terms with themselves."
Liberate also came in for support for the Cesarewitch on Wednesday. Philip Hobbs's representative was shortened to 10-1 from 12-1 by VC Bet, SkyBet and William Hill. |
I also see my Ces fancy Liberate has come in for support, though it was always likely as he was far too big at 12/14s anyway.
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TheDukeOfMarmalade
2yo
Joined: 03 Sep 2008
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: |
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jobs a gooden!! |
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