HORSE RACING TUESDAY - SELECTIONS

[aidanldrebin]

1.40 Leicester - DANCOURT (NAP) (a schooling session as the betting suggested it would be)

This maiden is usually a highly informative one for later down the line as the likes of Best Alibi, Ferzao and Papal Bull have launched their careers in it over the years. The selection is trained by Sir Michael Stoute whose yard have taken four of the last ten runnings of this race with Cassirer (2001), Artistic Lad (2002) and the aforementioned duo of Best Alibi and Papal Bull (both 2005) and his representative could well add to his tally. His a son of Cadeaux Genereux and is a full brother to the smart Stage Gift and also a half brother to the useful Drama Class who has been working very well these past few weeks on the limekilns and has looked ready to do himself justice on his racecourse debut. His pedigree points to a future over middle distances next season, but given his home work and connections' record in this over the years he is of clear interest and should be up to the task at the first time of asking. Emirates Roadshow sets the standard on his two runs to date, the latter of which came in a 7f maiden at Newmarket when roundly beaten by Ra Junior in a race which was a falsely run affair and probably just an average event with an impressive winner. Brave Echo was well backed in for his debut at HQ last month, but just couldn't keep himself on an even keel and wasn't duly punished in seventh is sure to improve. Fellow newcomer Takeover Bid, a son of Empire Maker out of the useful juvenile Seba, looks interesting from the Mark Johnston yard and given the form of his juveniles over the past month or so has to be respected.

3.10 Leicester - GYR (abysmally one paced effort)

He is a well bred and indeed well regarded son of Pivotal who following a promising debut at Goodwood, returned to the Sussex venue at the Glorious meeting to record a gritty success from Run For The Hills in a 6f maiden. He wasn't seen again until a couple of weeks ago when contesting the valuable Tattersalls Timeform Million race at Newmarket and it was frankly a nonsense of a race with hardly anything from the rear getting involved and it also got rough at times. The selection appeared to not appreciate the quick ground either and possibly needed the run, so, now back on a surface with some give in it and back in a smaller field, could run a big race with improvement likely. Akhenaten has been busy this month and though he has acquitted himself well in Group company, has never looked like landing a blow at the business end and may find his schedule catching up with him here. Absent Pleasure rates as the selections main danger and though he could only manage third in a nursery last time at Newmarket, he rates better than that as he was isolated from the main field and also pulled very hard that day and if settling better must go well; work in the interim is said to have been very good.

4.40 Leicester - LORD CHANCELLOR (NB) (not bad but just couldn't maintain the gallop inside the final furlong but 22/1 a nice enough price for a place)

Another interesting maiden and it looks the most open of the three on the card. The selection is a son of King's Best who is the first foal of a very well connected mare who was a half sister to the top class Act One as well as the smart trio Gharir, Summer Solstice and Summer Symphony, the first and last named were both debut winners at two. He is trained by Mark Johnston who has been in red hot form since September with his juveniles, especially his debutantes, and with this colt looking a likely sort on pedigree and also bred to act in the ground he should go well here with his raced opposition looking nothing much. Those to have raced include Moresco who sets the standard, but strikes me as a longer term prospect and it is hardly surprising as he is related to stayers and took his time to find his stride at Sandown behind Four Winds and though the form is working out well, may need another year before he reveals his true ability. Bruton Street is a $500,000 son of Dynaformer trained by John Gosden who will apparently be all the better for the run and the biggest danger to the selection could come from Class Is Class, a colt by Montjeu trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He too has been catching the eye in his work and is out of a debutante winner at two and is a half brother to the useful enough performer Ascot Lime and market interest would make his claims more appealing.
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Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[gunboat]

[removed - please make more of an effort with writeups rather than just saying "ticks the right boxes" and please don't make irresponsible statements either]

[deco121]

Good luck Aidan.


Moon Star (4:00) Huntingdon Hibiki looks to be on a pretty high mark in my opinion for his handicap debut over hurdles and he also lacks a recent run so is readily passed over. Norborne Bandit has won just once in his last 43 career runs in all spheres and his recent form over hurldes has been poor while Border Tale has two ways of running and is not one to be siding with at a short price here. That leaves Elaala and Moon Star. Elaala has won 4 times over hurdles so far all coming on fast ground but he is up 8lb for his win last time and has struggled off marks a few pounds lower than this in the recent past even when he had ideal conditions so this may his best. Moon Star is another who will love the fast conditions today but he has run well below off this mark when only beaten a head by Iffy over this trip at Stratford back in June. His three runs since have seen him finish 4th on his chasing debut when he made several jumping errors over the larger obstacles before finishing a well beaten 11th of 14 over hurdles at Market Rasen though that was over 2m2f and on unsuitable testing ground in a decent listed race. The ground wasn't right for him either last time when he had his first run for two months finishing 9th of 10 behind Irish Legend but it was actually a decent enough effort as there was only 10 lenghts seperating first from last and it was off a 3lb higher mark than today's. If Border Tale runs to his best then he has a chance but that is far from guaranteed and I think Moon Star holds the most solid claims here in all honesty. At around 7/1 I'm very happy to side with him here and think he is a great bet. NAP


Ocean Du Moulin (4:30) Huntingdon * formerly trained by Paul Nicholls and has a great chance this afternoon on his debut for James Snowden. The top weight Commemoration Day ran well last time but his form isn't as strong as the selection and will probably stuggle under a double penalty in these kinds of races. Scots Dragoon was decent over hurdles and ran well enough on his debut over fences on his penultamite start when only just failing but he had ideal conditions last time and was very disappointing when finishing only 3rd behind Quattrocento after being run out of second by today's rival Ladino. The pair were beaten 11 lenghts that day in what was, in my opinion, a very weak race as the winner was a poor hurdler, only 5 of the 12 finished (horse in 4th rated just 79) with 6 pulling up and although it may turn out to bite me in the arse I don't think either of them will challenge here. That leaves just Ladino as the main rival to the selection but he is making his chasing debut here and has been off the track for over 200 days so will probably need this meaning the selection can put his experience to good use here. He pulled up on his chasing debut in a pretty good race but then won by 33 lenghts from the potentially useful The Sliotar next time. A mistake 2 out probably him cost him after that when Mister Gloss battled back to beat him at Exeter but he was beaten beaten fair and square next time when long odds on at Worcester although the drop back in trip clearly didn't suit him. Back up to 2m7f at Stratford last time and he bounced back to his best beating the 4/9 shot Quarry Town by a few lenghts after battling his rival for a long way. This extra furlong should suit even more, he will relish the fast ground and should really take all the beating here if he jumps well. NB


best of luck,

Deco.
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35 TO FOLLOW
Friday night @ DUNDALK

[ThroughTheCard]

Huntingdon

2.30 A handicap staying hurdle for the first race on the card. The top weight is the Emma Lavelle trained The Bandit who returns to hurdles for his first start since May. He is one that does like the ground firmer than most and he could be a real danger today. However, he normally takes a few runs to come to hand and he hasn’t been the same horse since 10 months off the track, missing pretty much the most of last winter so I can’t select him today. Cee Cee Rider from the Alan King stable and ridden by his stable jockey Choc Thornton. A second season hurdler so there could be some improvement in this mare but she was well beaten last time back in August off this same mark. Unless there has been some improvement from her in the 3 months she has had off the track I can’t see her getting involved today. Miss Skippy is quite consistent but will need to prove herself after a year off the track, she can run well fresh but this is a stern test for her on her re-appearance and she will probably benefit for the run. Terramarique had been in good form last summer for Nicky Henderson, notching up a hat-trick over both hurdles and fences and then missed most of the winter after pulling up on his latest start over a year ago. Up 10lbs for his last success over hurdles and the fact he returns after a break when clearly something has been amiss, he is another that should come on for this. Markington is an interesting one, won last time out over hurdles over ½ a mile shorter than today’s trip and is up 5lb for that success. He could be a danger provided the ground stays on the firmer side but he will have to up his game to take this although there could still be improvement in this 5 year old. Dundridge Native seems firmly in the grasp of the handicapper as does Well Saved and Hassanpour was well beaten last time in a claimer and hasn’t won for over two years so I’m going to discount them. Domenico is a runner worth serious interest and loves it around this time of year, last year he was in the form of his life with 2 2nds and a 4 length victory over slightly further off a mark 2lbs higher than he carries today. He has to be one to be considered and should be at peak fitness after his creditable 4th last time out beating Cee Cee Rider a long way. What Luck is another that looks well handicapped from his debut over hurdles and really has shown nothing from his novice days to whet the appetite. Act Gold looks likely to be too skinny a price for a maiden although he was only just denied last time by a short head and is raised 4lb for that effort. The horse he got beaten by that day has since struggled once risen in the weights and I couldn’t be confident on him today because of that. Welsh Guard is 4lb out of the handicap but beat both Domenico and Cee Cee Rider last time out. This time he is much worse off at the weights (in receipt of 26lbs that day from Domenico and only receives 13lbs today) and he will have to up his game against better rated opposition.

Domenico is going to be the selection as he runs far better this time of year than anything else, all but 1 of his career placings have been around this time of year, and he should be bang there after a game effort last time coming back from a break. Now 2lb lower than when winning over 3f shorter this time last year a big run can be expected.

Domenico E/W

3.00 The second race on the card is a handicap for the novice chasers over an extended 2m4f. The top weight is the Nicky Henderson gelding Pharanto, who faces a tough time of it carrying top weight at the first time of asking over fences. His hurdling form is terrible to say the least and is very hard to recommend. If he were to show anything it would be a very good training performance by Mr Henderson. Lady Roania fell at her only crack over fences, that was without her usual cheek pieces and they are returned today. If they work the desired effect she could be right up there but that fall could have knocked her confidence and she looks to be well handicapped on the basis of her hurdle form where her best success was off a 6lb lower mark. Tempsford will go off favourite and is from the Jonjo O’Neill stable ridden by the champion AP McCoy. Tempsford is a horse whose jumping has let him down on 2 out of 3 starts over fences and the only time he put in a good round of jumping he won, so if he were to jump soundly then he should be bang there but the 7lb rise for his solitary success could hinder his progression. She’s Humble has been very consistent over hurdles without setting the world alight, with only one win from 20 starts but placed efforts. She seems well handicapped on the back of her hurdles form and has shown little on her two starts over fences; despite her rider being forced off by another horse falling when should have placed last time. Inmate won the time before last over slightly less but was well down the field last time out when raised 12lb for his success. A 2lb drop in the weights shouldn’t be enough for him to show his best form. Brahms and Mist has shown no promise in bumpers, hurdles and points (according to the RP) and really has nothing going for it here. Gemini Storm looks one of interest to me, he got within 17 lengths of Albertas Run, last season’s Sun Alliance winner, this time last year, and his better form comes on better ground. He placed 2nd to a horse in a beginners chase last year that won off a mark of 81 in a race similar to this and he is now rated 76 so the handicapper is taking a chance on this one. He ran some bad races last year on ground that was too soft for him and if the ground underfoot stays on the firmer side of good then he should be in with a big chance. Happily Ever After’s only ever good run was on good to firm ground on her first crack at hurdles. Since then she has shown nothing whatsoever and if she were to get close it would be a fantastic training performance.

I am going to take on the likely favourite, Tempsford, here with Gemini Storm. Gemini Storm has earned an 8lb reprieve from the handicapper after some poor showings towards the back end of last year. He can run well after a break and returned to a trip which should suit he looks overpriced at 14/1 against some poor types and a favourite who isn’t renowned for his jumping

Gemini Storm E/W

3.30 Another one for the novices, this time over hurdles and over the same trip as the previous race. Answer Me looks one of interest from the small Norma Tworney stable. This 5 year old gelding has plenty to like about him, he has some strong form in the book. He finished not too far away in each of his bumpers and has shown a lot of promise in his first two starts over hurdles finishing 2nd on both occasions both of those on ground on the softer side. In his first race over hurdles he ran into Prince Vector who has since placed in handicap company rated 113 and the well beaten 3rd that day has placed in novice and handicap company off 103. Last time out he ran into the Jonjo O’Neill trained Fresh Air And Fun and the horse Answer Me ½ lengthed into 3rd has since won a similar novice event to this. Also, the 5th horse that day has since gone on to finish 2nd to Ogee who is rated 128. With all that taken into account he should go very close here today given that he acts on all surfaces he is a main threat. For me this race is between Answer Me and Billy Magern, who also only found one too good last time out. That was the David Pipe trained Great Endeavour who could turn out to be quite useful. He beat everything else quite well including the well fancied favourite Grasscutter, a perennial 2nd. Bob Shilling has shown nothing since his bumper debut 4th; he fell last time out and has noting going for it against some potentially decent sorts. Northern Lad needs to learn his mistakes from last time where he pulled too hard and too fluently and this may just be an educational ride. Regal Quote is tough to recommend on his hurdling form and will probably need this run after a break. Sea Cliff is the 2nd of today’s O’Neill/McCoy combination and I think he is here to give this one a schooling ride. He returns to hurdles after 3 previous poor attempts and some more poor form on the flat in Ireland. Switched to Jonjo O’Neill he will need to show marked improvement on his previous excursions but it will be interesting to see how the market moves for this one.

As noted, for me this is between Answer Me and Billy Magern with the preference being for Answer me. He is stepped back in trip from his two previous efforts where he has only found one too good on each occasion, the form of both races is seemingly very string and is probably the strongest form from what Billy Magern has achieved.

Answer Me WIN

4.00 Were back to an extended 2 miles for a handicap hurdle for the 4th race on today’s card. The top weight Moon Star has a chance in this race now that he is back to the same weight as when he was headed over ½ furlong further back in June, that day he had Charlie Huxley claiming 7lbs off his back so he probably needs to drop a few more pounds before returning to the winner’s enclosure. Hibiki has some very good novice hurdle form and finished inside the top 2 in each of his first 4 attempts over hurdles before perhaps too much was asked of him in his last race of what had been a long season encompassing both jumping and flat races. As noted, his form over hurdles is good; he beat Arabella’s Homer 11 lengths who then when on to finish just 4 ½ lengths behind Whiteoak, the winner of the David Nicholson at Cheltenham now rated 144, also she is one of the stable stars of the McCain stable and isn’t too far off him in terms of form in the book. He has had a break since April and is still only a 4 year old so is entitled to improve on last year and if he does he should take this. Border Tale absolutely annihilated the field last time out at Kelso by 13 lengths and receives a 7lb penalty for that. The problem I have with him is that he is so inconsistent, never winning 2 on the bounce, plus the 7lb penalty which could see him well handicapped (he hasn’t won off this revised rating off 112 before) therefore I can’t have him today. Elaala loves firmer ground but if the forecast rain arrives then I can’t see it coming up any better than good ground, if it were to be good to firm however she would be a major player in this. I also feel she is well handicapped though her win last time out has produced Jazz Dance who has notched a double over fences, the latest of which off 127. However, I feel he is more suited to chasing not hurdling where he was well beaten by Elaala. Norborne Bandit probably needs further and for the ground to come up better than good to have a chance. Out of all of them this one would surprise me most if he were to win today.

The selection is Hibiki who has solid novice hurdle form and could be on a nicely exploitable mark given that he has scope for improvement being just a 4 year old.

Hibiki WIN

4.30 A very nice novice chase for the 5th race on the card with some exciting prospects even though there are just 6 down on the card. I’ll start by removing Snitton Salvo out of the equation as he is simply a no hoper and I doubt he would win even if all the others fell. So, Commemoration Day a two-time winner in the summer for Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paddy Brennan and he is stepped up to 3 miles for the first time over fences. He is probably beginning to feel it after being highly tried since February although he was staying on nicely last time to suggest otherwise I don’t think he’s up to giving 10lbs to some decent prospects. Ocean Du Moulin on the other hand should be able to give 10lbs to the others after some very impressive wins over the summer. This ex-Paul Nicholls gelding has been a revelation since pulling up at the first time of asking over fences, beating horses miles and beating horses that have beaten others by miles and others that have gone on to win by miles. He is definitely the one to beat even taking into account the fact he gives 10lbs to some others. Ladino is the first of those in receipt of 10lbs and he has sound claims here as he gets the trip, he handles the ground and put in a good performance at the first time of asking over the larger obstacles beating Scots Dragoon ¾ length giving him 3lbs. He has won a Class 2 handicap over hurdles so he has to be respected here. Lyes Green is probably the pick of the ones in receipt of weight as he has strong hurdle form; he finished ½ length 2nd to Albertas Run in April 07 in a handicap hurdle giving him 2lbs. That day he beat Mahogany Blaze, Refinement and some decent handicap chasers as well. He gets the trip and if he handles the switch to fences as some of those mentioned then he could go on to bigger and better things. Scots Dragoon has put in 2 game efforts on his first attempts over fences just being collared by the improving Our Choice first time and finding 2 too good at the 2nd time of asking. He was in receipt of 3lbs from Ladino that day and this time they race of levels so he will have to improve to beat him.

This is another race that for me is down to the front two in the market and it is a very hard pick though I am probably going to have to side with the favourite who seems to be quite something over fences despite pulling up at the first time of asking. It will be interesting to see whether or not Jamie Snowden can get the desired effect out of him as Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls did but he should have the beating off them all including Lyes Green who should come on for this run and providing he takes to fences he could be a smart prospect for later in the year.

Ocean Du Moulin WIN

5.00 The day is ended at Huntingdon with a bumper. There are some promising prospects in this race and some decent form to go on. The Bonus Ball won his bumper on debut to score by 1 ½ lengths although he was probably value for a bit more that day. The form has taken a couple of knocks but he beat the only horse that had winning experience that day. The only problem today is that he has to give weight to those who haven’t won and that could be crucial. Vacario won on debut like The Bonus Ball and he scored by 3 ¼ lengths but that form hasn’t worked out well at all and The Bonus Ball is probably the better of these two that have winning experience. American World sees McCoy riding for McManus which could be a tip in itself but the horses only previous run was a well beaten effort and he would have to come on leaps and bounds to score here. Moscow Catch is going to be the likely favourite in receipt of weight from the two previous winners and he is entitled to be after being nosed out by a fancied horse last time splitting two ex-Irish pointers. In receipt of 7lbs from The Bonus Ball he has a sound chance here. Mr Presley is from the O’Neill stable and McCoy doesn’t ride, he disappointed last time finishing way down the field and needs to find quarry-loads of improvement, the same can be said for Ok Katie.

So once again I’m left splitting the front two in the market and I’m going to plump for The Bonus Ball who I feel won last time with a bit in hand and can use his experience over Moscow Catch to nullify the weight difference. I could be very wrong here but that’s the hope anyway.

The Bonus Ball WIN

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2pts WIN 1pt E/W

Forum Tips to Betfair SP +27.99pts

Join me as we go through the card!

[cjwigg]

Lay

Huntingdon 3.0 Tempsford

Showed decent form on the flat but disappointing as a jumper until winning at Bangor, benefitting from a tongue tie and a strong ride from McCoy. Failed to build on that when 8lbs higher next time and favouritism here due as much to his connections as an ability to win this.

Back

She's Humble is a lively alternative, being placed on several occasions over hurdles. Made a fair start over fences and deserves to win one of these.

[Zipster]

4.30 Huntingdon: SCOTS DRAGON (NAP)
I feel this race will be between Ocean Du Moulin and my selection SCOTS DRAGON, Ocean Du Moulin will relish the conditions today and has a good record over this trip and on this ground but i feel Scots Dragon will just get the better of him. He will be looking to notched up his first win over the fences today after finishing in places in his first two runs over fences but he is going out over 3m from which he is a two time winner and he has alos won on this ground and yet to finish outside the places from three starts, he is the only runner in the race who has a course win to his name also, he loves running this time of the year and has won both previous starts in October, he was dissaponinting last time out at Southwell but coming to a course he knows i feel he can come here and open his chasing account under the guidence of Felix De Giles.

Good Luck Guys

[valleyboy123]

Moresco 4.40 leicester @ 2/1

Made a good enough start finishing 4th at sandown behind Four Winds. Form of that race looks rock solid with Four Winds finishing 3rd next time out in a group 3 behind two highly thought sorts in Kite Wood and Taameer. Ra Junior has also come out of the race to give the form a boost with an impressive 5L win over Emirates Roadshow, who runs today in the 1.40 and can give the form a further boost. The Mark Johnston trained Alanbrooke who was behind in 5th also won next time out. He should have come on blundles for that run and should have the beating of the fillie Three Moons. Is said to be held in a fair amount of regard by the yard and seems to be a nice miler in the making.

[ChimmyChanga]

Huntingdon 2.30 [COLOR="Red"]Miss Skippy[/COLOR]

A usefull type in this grade who's not been seen for 401 days but theres races in her, Andrew Thornton know's how to ride her well and is proven to go fresh so there's every chance today at 12/1.


Huntingdon 3.00 [COLOR="Red"]Shes Humble[/COLOR]

Unlucky last time out being hamperd twice and eventually unseating Jamie Moore on the second incident. She was up against some good hurdlers before and travelled well enough to see her put in a strong run with 11-10 today against some more exposed types.

Huntingdon 4.30 [COLOR="Red"]Scotts Dragon[/COLOR]

A consistant sort over hurdles who put in a brave effort here at Huntingdon in a Novice Chase with McCoy on board behind a 124 rated hurdler in Our Choice, Felix De Giles up and coming jockie who's 3lb claim can be put into good use here so im confident and also a return to fences at Huntingdon where he jumped well.