Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:32 pm Post subject: Another important-seeming thing learnt, yesterday.
In my experience as a punter, indifferent as it has mostly been, over several decades now, there are nevertheless, all manner of little "wrinkles", which help me to save money on bad bets and make it on better ones, at worthwhile prices.
One I learnt yesterday, I believe, is that, in a race where the favourite is a very good favourite, i.e. backed up by a number of favourable factors in support, rather than by the quite superficial convention whereby many newspaper favourites are generally established, don't be diverted into thinking that other horses which have dropped markedy in the weights since showing superior form, will have been aimed at the race in question.
In my personal experience, this is contrary to the case of run-of-the-mill favourites, in races where the latter very well-weighted horses, with a promising, improving profile are of far greater interest, because they often do return to winning form, and remain on a good mark for further wins.
Even forecasts with that favourite and the latter kind of horse can be dodgy, as I found to my cost, yesterday. Although, it might have been a relatively aberrant result. Still, big-priced horse do seem to have a way of finishing best of all behind the favourite. I'd had Group Captain, Jadalee and Aaim To Prosper, each to come second to Swingkeel, thinking there would be a good chance of the forecast in there somewhere.
Afterwards, it seemed logical to me that the connections of good handicappers "on their way back", unless the pot is particularly large, would do their best to choose a race in which their horse would not face a likely tartar, the favourite and more fancied horses, being nothing to shout about in relation to their improver.
In other words, this is a case where anticipating the thinking of the connections (and not just of the favourite), can prevent value-seekers from being diverted from the "real value" horse - even though it is a relatively short price. In fact, Swingkeel went clear and won much more easily than his previous Class 3 handicap at Ascot. And I was left ruing what I had feared would happen, the more bets I placed on the outsiders, since its form had been so good, and it on an upward curve.
In short, second-guessing the form of improving horse of a certain standard, and the intentions of THEIR connections is not wise; doing so of possibly improving horses who've been in the wilderness for a while, racing against the former, is.
I expect many, assuming there are many, will wonder what I'm babbling about, but it may make sense to others.
SWINKEEL was my NAP yesterday reasons was in the selection thread and like i said in it their was nothing in that race that was the same class as swinkeel who ran on well at ascot,i would of looked for something to be 2nd to that in the race if i was doing a forcast however i couldnt find the second and swinkeel won easy enough for me but on form could of won by 6lenghs.
Actually, Betfairalfie, I have an ugly suspicion you'll all do far better if you take my pearls of wisdom with a pinch of salt. Do you mean the Platters' version of Only You?
I was going to say, "Half your luck", dontstopmenow, but luck obviously didn't come into at all, to any significant extent. I think you could say the horse would have been unlucky if it had run out, or broken down, but not to have done so, doesn't quite qualify as luck!
Joined: 11 Sep 2008 Posts: 1405 Location: West Cork
Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:41 pm Post subject:
If he remembers The Platters then I doubt The Flying Pickets was before his time
I remember both of them by the way.............. _________________ "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 Posts: 8860 Location: Cork, Ireland
Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:46 pm Post subject:
Can't say I remember both of them but I certainly know them. Platters' Only You is a far better song but the other one is now stuck in my head for the night.... _________________ National Hunt Beginners Guide
When you think of what passes for op today, you've got to feel sorry for the kids. But it was a different world in the fifties and sixties. Not to mention the forties.
Pesky striplings. Have at you, varlet! javascript:emoticon('')
These are just tired old burblings, which are always likely to follow the effort of composing a post, fairfranco; or when we just chat with each other - you know... the way old geezers do. "I don't know what this world's coming to!" (And that's true by the way!). "Youngsters to day haven't got the sense they were born with"... and so on and so forth.
Tell the truth, folks, I only have a vague recollection there was a pop group called the flying pickets, but never heard their version. Just started listening to it on YouTube. Seems quite different and NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD! In spite of their illustrious name.
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