Cheltenham Antepost Betting Portfolio

[Intersky Falcon]

Hi guys.

I know we have the Cheltenham antepost discussion as a sticky, but hopefully we can use this thread to list the antepost bets we've already made (along with reasoning), and use it to list bets only, with discussion taking place in the other one. I've been wanting to see everyone's antepost bets for a while now and I know that Aiden created one similar to this last year (think it was a banker thread), at around this time. I'll kick off (with more to follow).

Garde Champetre - Cross Country Chase @ 5/2 & 2/1
I've gone in twice on Garde Champetre already so far. I really think this price is awesome for this horse. He won last year carrying top weight, and he'll no doubt be carrying top weight again this year, but that doesn't seem to be a problem. The horse needs to be delivered as late as possible, this shows in the winning distances. His win last time out was very impressive, giving away over a stone to his rivals. The win was just as effortless as always, and I'm hopeful of another win come March.

[dontstopmenow]

My biggest ante post bet is as most no Binocular,
iv done a few others but only small,Binocular I have pressed some 4 times and now like iv said recently not no where near as sure as i was for a few reasons: it beat nothing as the price sugested lto although it won easy enough imo it didnt look 100% still had a thick coat around its neck and sweated up before the race,not saying i wished i hadnt backed it because i dont i still think if N.Henderson gets this right,100 % fit it has every chance imo.
I also read i think it was at gg.com or punters lounge that someone had wrote in binocular was beating Zayner at home if this is true im delighted whatever it made me press again,any case my money is now on from 6/1 to 12/1 so i will be very happy if it wins,if not thats the chance you take ante post.
Dunquib looks the winner imo of the supreme but if you look back at all its races it jumps not very good so imo i wouldnt take even money and wld prefer to look for a bigger price on the day.
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My Own horse Alert blog

[yoyoleo]

i'll copy/paste mine from Betfair with amounts and bet numbers edited.....be warned there's a few proper howlers in amongst the decent ones...oh and there's heaps more over at Paddy Power too which i'll leave for now,could become a 4 page thread with just my input...

ok here we go...

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / RSA Chs Mikael Dhaguenet Back 31-Jan-10
19:11 18 18 31-Jan-10 19:11
not seen yet but is a outstanding prospect for fencing,rsa looks between a select half dozen but if mullins gets a run into him he'll be half the current odds and was worth taking a chance on as i already have him in various Lucky 15's at 1/2 the price.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Bumper Quinfromcloonbunny Back 31-Jan-10
12:29 95 95 31-Jan-10 12:29
impressive on his only outing,little caught out before the final bend but a quick shake of the reigns and he had em covered and then went past like a class animal imo,hasnt been seen since and the form of the race hasnt been franked at all but felt he would end up one of willies better horses and the prices were not a true reflection of his chance if showing up.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Bumper Quinfromcloonbunny Back 25-Jan-10
01:22 80 80 25-Jan-10 01:22

as above.

GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Champion Hrd Rock Noir Back 24-Jan-10
22:44 180 180 24-Jan-10 22:44
champion hurdle looks really good this year with a host of horses within a few pounds of each other there's no stand out superstar yet,this ones french form isnt far off the best of these and with one good run in england he'd be slashed for sure and who knows,jp mcmanus isnt shy about backing his horses so if he runs he'll be a 20-25/1 shot imo unless he shows something special on his first uk run,so thought for buttons i'd take a chance he can turn up a contender at least.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Bumper Quinfromcloonbunny Back 24-Jan-10
16:31 80 83.32 24-Jan-10 16:31
as above.

GB / Chelt 19th Mar / A. Bartlett Nov Hrd Quel Esprit Back 24-Jan-10
14:23 5.5 5.5 24-Jan-10 14:23
the apple of mullins eye amongst his novices and looked a real world beater on his first 2 starts more so when hacking up unextended over 3miles,dropped back in trip lto when turned over at 2/7,took the view that if staying unbeaten he'd be this years blackjackketchum and go off 5/4 or something silly so backed him just before his last start,got turned over and has now drifted a few points but on the plus side im sure he'll go the 3 mile route now as seemed tapped for toe and wouldnt fancy him to beat peddlers cross or quantaveesswhatshisbloodyname

GB / Chelt 19th Mar / A. Bartlett Nov Hrd Quel Esprit Back 24-Jan-10
14:22 6 6 24-Jan-10 14:22
as above,couldnt get all on at the price so had 2 bets.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / RSA Chs Long Run Back 24-Jan-10
14:22 7.4 7.4 24-Jan-10 14:22
most exciting french horse since kauto/master minded to hit these shores,sauntered to a grade 1 victory on his sole uk start,huge engine and a even huger horse for a 5 year old,jumping needs brushing up on but personally think he should be joint fav for the rsa...one for the future(touch wood)

GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Arkle Chs Sizing Europe Back 24-Jan-10
14:21 9 9 24-Jan-10 14:21
have been on this one since october as always thought chasing would make a man of him,so far he is unbeaten in 4 chase starts with only his last start being unimpressive imo when the captain loomed large before hitting the turf,sure to go close.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / NH Chase Mark The Book Back 14-Jan-10
18:09 36 1 14-Jan-10 18:09
hobbs horse plagued with injury over the years but always held in the highest regard by connections,made a pleasing comeback when he just looked to me like a horse that would stay 8miles let alone 4 so went in and he is now a non runner(maybe injured again )

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Bumper Quinfromcloonbunny Back 14-Jan-10
02:24 65 65 14-Jan-10 02:24
as way above.

GB / Chelt 18th Mar / World Hrd Cousin Vinny Back 08-Jan-10
02:40 180 180 08-Jan-10 02:40
top horse in bumpers and over hurdles,didnt run as expected in last years supreme but was apparently all wrong after a bad journey over,sent fencing this year but must say i thought after his first start he cant jump fences at speed so wont win any race worth of his undoubted class so took a chance that connections would go back hurdling where he does look a much better animal but i didnt think champ hurdle thought world hurdle as i was always of the view that he needed a trip.

GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Champion Hrd Sentry Duty Back 08-Jan-10
01:41 190 190 08-Jan-10 01:41
2 poor runs at the festival so far for this underacheaver imo but hacked all over katchit/mr.thriller lto around cheltenham,thought maybe connections would take him back for the champion hurdle rather than step up too 3 miles but looks like another dud bet atm....you never know though

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Bumper Quinfromcloonbunny Back 06-Jan-10
23:17 38 38 06-Jan-10 23:17
as way way above now.

GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Champion Hrd Medermit Back 06-Jan-10
23:12 40 40 06-Jan-10 23:12
unlucky in last years supreme imo,got well caught in trouble a few times and was finishing really well but the line came in time for go native,has put in 2 good runs when the king stable have been nowhere near there best this year so thought i'd take a chance that they'll turn the corner eventually,ran out a good winner from punjabi lto and really looked to enjoy himself with heaps left to work on and on ground he wouldnt have liked at all....in the mix for sure

GB / Chelt 18th Mar / World Hrd Tidal Bay Back 30-Dec-09
21:27 280 282.6 30-Dec-09 21:27
ok here's the reasoning,beaten once over hurdles as a novice at the festival when he cocked his jaw and didnt look to put it ll in imo,novice chasing career was top notch with a arkle victory on his cv,second season chasing went badly off the rails,tried to make him into a gold cup horse but was running on real bad ground and in all the wrong races imo,went back to cheltenham and finished like a train in the ryan air to get 4th,in another furlong he'd have been second at worst,pre-season was given a wind op and has been running ok in chases but he hasnt been enjoying racing which is the difference between winning and losing,took the view that he still had something too offer over hurdles if they'd try and finally they gave him a crack in the cleeve hurdle..the rest is history and cant wait too see him and big bucks coming up the hill...with tidal in front of course

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Champion Chs Glencove Marina Back 30-Dec-09
21:24 410 410 30-Dec-09 21:24
took a chance on this fella coming back fit and well,another one which people we're waxing lyrical over before injury cut short his season,thought of as a future gold cup winner but thought he showed a lot of speed myself and with the doubts surrounding master minded i took the view that if he came back winning mullins might take in the queen mother with him,fell last week and hasnt had that sparkle about him so think its another for the virtual bin.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / RSA Chs Alfie Sherrin Back 21-Dec-09
00:57 380 1 21-Dec-09 00:57
really good novice hurdler who looks all over a chaser imo,with most of nicholls main hopes for the race injured thought they might get this one out over fences as stable hasnt got much left for the race,i assume he is injured as not entered and not out all season..shame as is one im looking foward too over fences..

GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Champion Hrd Voler La Vedette Back 21-Dec-09
00:54 27 27.6 21-Dec-09 00:54
top mare who i feel is worthy of a place at the top 2mile races but after a slight setback colm has missed finding out if she can mix it with the boys so is bound for the mares race now..virtual bin getting half full now..

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Baring Bingh. Nov Hrd Quantitativeeasing Back 16-Dec-09
18:47 14 14 16-Dec-09 18:47
been very impressive since his romp at the punchestown festival in his debut race
so far hasnt been asked a question and looks to be a top class prospect,wont be far away forsure.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Baring Bingh. Nov Hrd Giordano Bruno Back 16-Dec-09
18:47 290 1 16-Dec-09 18:47
one i was also looking foward too,looks to have stacks of ability and plenty of gears but has been out injured all season...one for next year we hope.

GB / Chelt 17th Mar / Baring Bingh. Nov Hrd Peddlers Cross Back 16-Dec-09
18:47 18 18.25 16-Dec-09 18:47
cant wait too see him over fences but for now is one of the top novice hurdlers in england with effortless victorys so far in all starts,won his point to points over 2m 4f so thought they'd go that route...also everyone is running scared for dunguib so makes sense to back him for the longer race,will be single figures on the day.

GB / Chelt 18th Mar / Ryanair Chs Herecomesthetruth Back 10-Dec-09
13:46 65 65 10-Dec-09 13:46
one i've always liked as jumps and travells really well and marked him down for this race last year,hasnt impressed this year but not sure he is best suited being allowed to go off like a scalded cat,maybe in the first 3 then let him go on after a mile...i think he'll run in this and go off in front so could trade out in running but i'll be on course so i'll let it run...

reasoning behind em...gawd i'll wait till they line up for that to save myself a few hours

best wishes one and all
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"proper words in proper places,make the true defination of style" jonathan swift

If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants-issac newton

master minded..champion chase winner 2009/2010/2011.

[curwinkle]

ARKLE
SPORTS LINE - Highly regarded and lightly raced ahead of Chasing debut. Won that as he liked and then went on to finish 2nd in the Irish equivalent, still open to plenty of improvement and his ability to jump fences with such efficiency at speed looks pretty special. Backed him before his chase debut and had a little more on since his 2nd in the Irish Arkle.

RSA

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET - even if he does make it to the track now, this one is pretty poor value at 6/1 given he is now twice the price. I dont know what the problem is as Mullins has said for weeks he is trying to get him out there but he still is to be seen. I fully expect him to naturally make the transition to fences with ease, and more hope that he runs at this moment in time. Shame as he is a class act. Since then I've backed WEIRD AL NB as a friend knows someone involved with the horse and he is rated very very highly a Ian Williams yard and he is very lightly raced and improving with every start. He has course form and doesnt touch a twig when jumping. Connections asked McCoy to ride him FTO this season, he wanted to school him first. After seeing the horses potential he requested to ride Weird Al only for his owners to opt elsewhere,the excellent Paddy Brennan looks like the guy who will be on board with NTD looking unlikely to have a decent contender.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

MILLE CHIEF, well backed, took a nice early price about this one and he has done everything asked of him and done it well. Not fully sure what the form amounts to yet but 14/1 looks big nonetheless. King is now in much better form so chances are he will step up again on his previous form. ROYAL MIX only seen once over hurdles as yet but won it impressively and the 2nd placed horse has won a grade 1 since. He is highly regarded at the top yard and but for his lack of track time here in the UK I believe he should be much shorter than the 14/1 still available.

NEPTUNE NOVICE HURDLE

QUANTITATIVEEASING, I backed this on the basis that when Aidan and Paulos sing the praises of the same horse, you know its the real deal, and thats what happened with this one prior to his racecourse debut and has duly obliged on the bridle twice since, not beat much but beat it impressively and a couple of those in behind on his two starts have run well since. Backed QUEL ESPRIT for the same race but after his flop last time looks like he will need the full 3m and the Albert Bartlett more likely his destination.

GOLD CUP

DENMAN, doesnt really need much reasoning. He's back to his best and has proven that his best is better than Kauto's he's got an unbelievable engine and his ability to put the opponents to the sword with his superb high cruising speed will be enough. Thats not even mentioning his impeccable jumping that takes a length of the field each time.

WORLD HURDLE

For me, if you take the favourite out, we have the most intriguing race of the festival. So many top class horses will be trying to dethrone BIG BUCKS NAP, in my opinion all in vain as he will stay all day and just do enough. Very game, the best horse in training in my opinion. In behind we have a quality field and of those that take the eye, COUSIN VINNY @ 40/1 was an e/way steal, he cant jump fences and its almost inevitable he will return to the small obstacles. Couple that with his undoubted great engine sees him a leading player in the fight for best of the rest

CHAMPION CHASE

[b]BIG ZEB proved his critics wrong last time with a much improved jumping performance to beat 157 rated Golden Silver very much as he liked. I backed him after his most impressive seasonal reappearance when Geraghty cruised him through on the most cool of rides to win hard held in the last strides. Got 8/1 that day and he shortened as a the weeks passed and went off at Sandown favourite, when putting a most lacklustre display in. I didnt think his jumping was poor that day - more the quick sucession of fences at Sandwon preventing hm from settling into a rhythm. Despite this it has since come to light that Colm Murphy has said Big Zeb had muscular operation prior to the Tingle Creek and that he was not at all ready to go. They look to have ironed his issues out now and I am convinced his tremendous cruising speed will bring him right into this race at the business end. He's proven he can account for Master Minded if getting it right, Twist MAgic the danger for me. Who has improved immensely this season. [/b]
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[jamiess09]

I have 6 or 7 lucky 15s already for the week hope to have alot more come the start but the only serious bet ive had is on this mare.. I copied and pasted fro my blog hopes that's ok..

VOLER LA VEDETTE

With only a month away till the festival i have finally started to get some ante post tips for the festival on and so far my biggest ive put down is in the Mares Hurdle, won last year in devastating fashion by the Willie Mullins trained mare Quevega who couldnt have been more impressive.. If she goes to post in the race IMO she will be very hard to beat but ive decided for a few reasons why i am going to put my faith in Colm Murphys star mare Voler La Vodette who couldnt have been more impressive then when winning at Down Royal earlier this year when beating the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner last year Go Native by 13 lengths on soft ground over 2 miles.. Many may crab the win and say she was getting 9 pounds from the winner but Go Native came traveling like the winner two from home and was firmly put in his place by what is still a very lightly raced mare who still must have bag loads of improvement in her judging on that run.. The form of that race at Down Royal has been given plenty of boosts since as Go Native is 2 from 2 since that race in Grade 1 company in Britain and is currently on the list of many as the favorite for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.. Voler La Vedettes next run was over 2 and a half at Christmas in a mares hurdle (after the trainer decided to bypass the Christmas hurdle)which she was again impressive, beating No One Tells Me by a comfortable 2 lengths.. For me that was a key run this season as she had only attempted the distance once before at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3 hurdle last year and it remains the her only defeat over hurdles so it was important she proved she stayed the trip.. Her competition in the race this year is likely to be Quevega as i mentioned last years winner.. At the time of writing this piece she has yet to make it to the track this year but Willie, her trainer, also applied similar tactics last year with her, leaving her off till late February for a conditions hurdle then pitching her in at Cheltenham.. Her form at both Festivals last year stands out and she possibly has the best form in the race.. But my fear for her is that there was no one with the class of Voler La Vodette in last years Mares event and i believe that my selection wouldn't look out Of place contesting in the actual Champion Hurdle itself on the Tuesday.. Expect a big run from both mares as it promises to be one of the clashes of the festival if both mares turn up on teh day on song! A negative if any with Voler, could be that Barry Gerathys retainer Nicky Hendersen, currently has 2 pretty fancied runners in the betting declared in Stravinskys Dance and Candy Creek and probably wont be able to take the ride on the day.. Been a top quality mare im sure there will be no shortage of top jockeys come the day wanting to ride her however..

[Intersky Falcon]

Carlito Brigante - Triumph Hurdle
Already gone in twice on this horse @ 12's and 14's and I still think the 8's on offer are good value. A hat-trick of wins has seen Carlito do no wrong so far, and what impresses me the most is how he quickens away when asked. Has already thrashed leading Triumph contender Alaivan by 11 lengths easing down, his other two wins have seen him power clear when it matters. His jumping is fine and his trainer believes that he'll handle the 'hustle and bustle' of the big race well.

[Antony OLBG]

Celestial Halo 20/1 EW Champion Hurdle
Close second last year & his last run on unsuitably soft ground has created lots of value if it stays reasonably dry. Cheltenham form is key at the festival & Nicholls knows how train to win the big festival races. I think its a huge price.

[michaelm]

Dunguib
Not great over fences, but theres noone better than him in the field NAP

[jamiess09]

Only my second serious fancy so far along with Voler La Vedette and tha is the triple crown chasing.....

GO NATIVE Champion Hurdle @ 6/1 (Generally)

The Champion Hurdle, a race that for me is always the highlight of the festival, looks to be super competitive this year and looking at the current ante post betting i could see how many would struggle to pick there winner given some of the form on offer.. For me ive always been sweet on Go Native and had backed him big for last years Supreme Novices at 14/1 in a race he won in style in the end beating the Alan King trained Medermit by a neck.. The winning distance doesnt tell the whole story however as Paul Carberry on the day was traveling so well he was forced to take up the running a long way from home and the trainer and jockey both reported that the horse didn't enjoy been in front that soon.. Im sure they learnt alot from that race and he will be produced as late as possible this year by the master of the hold up ride Paul Carberry.. So far this season he has ran four times already which started in an uncompetitive affair at Tipperary in early October where he was sent off the 4/7 favorite to see of a four runner field which he did in convincing fashion never having to come of the bridle once to beat Cearthalawn by a cheeky 3 lengths in the end.. His next start remains the only time Go Native has been beaten this season and that was when trying to give 9 pounds away to Colm Murphys star mare Voler La Vedette at Down Royal early in November.. The form of that race is working out quiet nicely considering there was only 5 runners as Luska Lad was a nice winner at the weekend when beating Jumbo Rio and Muirhead in the process at Gowran Park and Voler La Vedette was impressive in her only start at Leopardstown during the Christmas and she looks a strong bet in the mares hurdle at the festival on the same day as the Champion.. Since that run at Down Royal the selection has run twice at both Newcastle and Kempton in the Fighting Fifth and Christams Hurdle respectively and on both occasions he has shown a terrific turn of foot in the end of his race along with a very high cruising speed which is essential for a fast run championship race at the festival.. In those two Grade 1s he easily beat Solwhit and Binocular twice fair and square and i see little reason as to why either of those should around that form.. Trainer Noel Meade also knows how to ready a good hurdler for the festival and he will be desperate to win the WBX triple crown this season after coming so agonizingly close with Harchibald in 2005 where he was denied by only a stride or two by the gutsy Hardy Eustache.. Of the others in the field there are so many that have chances but Kyber Kim is one of the more interesting runners and has already won at Cheltenham twice this year and looked real good when beating Celestial Halo and Punjabi earlier in the season after his Greatwood hurdle truimph a race that has turned out to be very good looking at some of the results that have come out of it since.. I personally think last years Champion Hurdle 1st,2nd and 3rd Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular aren't quiet up to the novices of last year the likes of a Go Native, Medermit or Zaynar and they will all struggle this year.. Im willing to wait for Solwhit to run at Aintree as the 2m4f trip there will suit more than the Cheltenham trip IMO and he is also unproven at the course which is a big concern for me.. Expect a whopper of a race and i would be expecting Go Native and Kyber Kim to be fighting out the finish come the day and clear preference is for the former who if on song can blow his rivals away..

[mooster100]

JONCOL - RYANAIR CHASE

Paul Nolan aims this Bobs Return gelding to the Ryanair Chase having failed to stay three miles on his previous two attempts. His latest effort in the Lexus chase was a very good performance were in my opinion, only the trip beat him. He was prominent throughout the contest before moving to the lead stylishly at the tenth then kicking on two out as he looked the most likely winner before running out of stamina inside the final 100yds. The one thing that’s needed to win at Cheltenham is to jump and this horse can certainly do that.

He as since won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown over three miles since writing this which as added strength to my confidence as i still believe three miles is just to far for him. He's my only real ante post bet at the moment

[mooster100]

I also like Dunguib michaelm for the Supreme. Although not much of a price at current, im thinking of sticking him in a treble on the day with Master Minded and Big Bucks ...

[The Executioner]

The only race at the Festival that I a vested interest in at the moment is the Triumph Hurdle.
I had been very keen indeed on the chances of Pistolet Noir after his win at Cheltenham back in November which i think is still the highest rated performance by a juvenile so far this season. Following that success he was purchased out of Nick Williams yard to race under the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholl's. However he disappointed somewhat on his only start for his new stable when getting turned over by 100/1 shot Baccalaureate at the end of January - in my opinion he performed about a stone below his November run that day ; and while I have not yet torn up my considerable ante post vouchers - I do feel the Triumph may come a bit too soon for him to get back to the November level. I also have smaller Each Way interests in Westlin Winds @33/1 and Pittoni @25/1.
Others in the race which I have LAYED are Carlito Brigante - Advisor - Secant Star - Me Voici and Sang Bleu.
I just hope that come raceday that I don't get hit with a Double Whammy with my bets losing and one of my LAYS winning.

Good Luck One & All