First Minister Betting Odds Guide

Updated: 2115 Politics & Current Affairs

The leader of the devolved Scottish Government is titled the First Minister. They are in charge of carrying out the Government policy. The First Minister is nominated by the Scottish Parliament, and there are normally betting odds available on the race.

First Minister Betting Odds Guide
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

First Minister Betting Odds

Betting on who will be the First Minister of Scotland has only been available since devolution in 1999, and since then, with only a handful of changes, opportunities have been limited with bookmakers. But when a change in the face at the head of the Scottish Parliament comes around, betting interest can be furious with political betting sites. Here, we provide some guidance on what to look for and information on previous changes, including the 11-year term of Nicola Sturgeon.

Next Permanent SNP Leader Odds: John Swinney now 1/3 to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader after he resigns as First Minister!
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Next Permanent SNP Leader Odds: John Swinney now 1/3 to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader after he resigns as First Minister!

Next Scottish First Minister Betting Odds

Next Permanent SNP LeaderOddsProbability
John Swinney6/440.0%
Kate Forbes4/120.0%
Neil Gray6/114.3%
Mairi McAllan8/111.1%
Angela Constance16/15.9%
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
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Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK

How To Bet On The Next First Minister of Scotland

In this market, you just need to predict which candidate will succeed the incumbent party leader.

The odds can fluctuate, based on the activity, intention and political reporting on the main candidates.

Both positive and negative media coverage can also affect people's perspectives, the bets they place in the market, and subsequently, the movement of the Scottish First Minister's betting odds.

Movement in Scottish First Minister's Betting Odds

🗳️💼 In the game of political predication, it's all about keeping your eyes open! 👁️ Media coverage plays a decisive role! 📰💭 Your next bet could influence the Scottish First Minister's odds! 💷

How To Place A Bet On The Next Scottish First Minister

The majority of the best betting sites cover political betting and placing a bet on a political betting market is no different than a sports betting market, like football. 

  • Go to your favourite betting app and head to the political section in the menu, looking for Scottish First Minister, or perhaps, Party leader odds. If you do not have an active online betting account, then head over to our betting sites section where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the UK
  • Once at the bookies use the index for political betting and click Scottish First Minister Odds, select the candidate and decide how much you wish to wager. 
  • Input the amount and click confirm, you can check the bet has been placed in the history section of your account.  

Let Your Predictions Pay Off

🎩🏴 Have your say in the Scottish political race! Head to your fave betting app, select Scottish First Minister odds, & bet on your top candidate. Remember to confirm & check your bet! 💸

Things To Consider When Betting on the First Minister Of Scotland

Before arriving at this page, you have probably considered a great deal about who you are betting on for the First Minister of Scotland position and maybe even where you are going to make a bet. Ensuring you have covered all bases is a good thing.

When betting on the next first minister of Scotland, you should consider the candidate's political party, popularity, previous experience, and public image. It will be also crucial to consider the current political climate, such as issues concerning Scottish independence and public opinion.

📢Top Tips for Betting on Scotland's Next First Minister🏴🗳️

Don't just flip a coin! Do your homework📚. Know your candidates: their party 🎈, popularity📈, past experience🕰️ and public image🔍. Keep an eye 👀 on the current political climate too!

Scotland First Minister History

Tony Blair's Labour government devolved powers to Scotland, and the new Scottish Parliament was founded on the 12th of May 1999.

Five elections have occurred since the Parliament was formed:

  • 1999 to 2000 Donald Dewar (Labour)
  • 2000 to 2001 Henry McLeish (Labour)
  • 2001 to 2007 Jack McConnel (Labour)
  • 2007 to 2014 Alex Salmond (SNP)
  • 2014 to 2023 Nicola Sturgeon (SNP)
  • 2023 to 2024 Humza Yousef (SNP)
  • 2024 ????

129 MSPs (Members Of the Scottish Parliament) meet at Holyrood, Edinburgh, in a purpose-built chamber opened in 2004. 

The First Minister, along with the appointed ministers, develops and implements Scottish Government policy. 

The First Minister of Scotland is nearly always a representative of the biggest party, although nominations can be from and for anyone. 

The First Minister need to maintain the confidence of the Parliament, the larger the majority of their party the more likely they will remain in the post. 

Donald Dewar for Labour was the inaugural 1st Minister, he served for 18 months. Dewar is often cited as the "Father Of The Nation"

Next First Minister and Scottish Independence Betting News Diary Timeline

The betting odds for The Next First Minister will naturally fluctuate with every speech and gaffe made by the candidates.

Here is a round-up of the Next First Minister Betting Timeline from our OLBG News feed along with Scottish Independence stories.  

29th April 2024

Next Permanent SNP Leader Odds: John Swinney now 1/3 to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader after he resigns as First Minister!
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Next Permanent SNP Leader Odds: John Swinney now 1/3 to replace Humza Yousaf as SNP leader after he resigns as First Minister!

15th March 2023

Next Permanent Leader of the SNP Betting Odds: Humza Yousaf is the ODDS ON favourite to be the next leader of the Scottish National Party according to latest bookmaker odds!
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Next Permanent Leader of the SNP Betting Odds: Humza Yousaf is the ODDS ON favourite to be the next leader of the Scottish National Party according to latest bookmaker odds!

Humza Yousaf is the favourite with bookmakers to become the next leader of the Scottish National Party with Nicola Sturgeon stepping down from the role last month. Yousaf is the current Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care and according to the latest odds from Paddy Power has a 65% chance of winning the leadership race. The SNP leadership winner will be announced on 27th March and it looks like it'll be a two horse race between Yousaf and Kate Forbes when it comes to who will win.

16th February 2023

Angus Robertson Springs to Head of Next First Minister Betting in Scotland with a 50% Chance of Securing the Position
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Angus Robertson Springs to Head of Next First Minister Betting in Scotland with a 50% Chance of Securing the Position

With the surprise announcement on Wednesday evening from Nicola Sturgeon that she is standing down as the First minister of Scotland, Bookmakers have quickly adjusted the odds on who is likely to be her replacement. Betting on the Next First Minister of Scotland at Smarkets has seen Angus Robertson quoted at just over Evens, representing a 50% chance of securing the position at the head of the Scottish government.

19th October 2022 

Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: 57% chance that Scotland votes YES in a potential 2023 referendum according to bookmakers!
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Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: 57% chance that Scotland votes YES in a potential 2023 referendum according to bookmakers!

The Scottish independence referendum has been in the news again this week with the Supreme Court beginning its hearing on the independence vote. It may well take months for the Supreme Court to reach a decision on whether the Scottish Government’s intention to hold another independence referendum is legal or not. Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland would vote yes if the 2023 independence referendum does go ahead but it looks unlikely that it will next year. Smarkets give a whole host of odds around the Scottish indyref2 with Nicola Sturgeon wanting to hold the referendum in October 2023.

20th December 2021

Scotland Politics Betting 2022 - Next Scottish First Minister Betting has a Clear 6/4 favourite
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Scotland Politics Betting 2022 - Next Scottish First Minister Betting has a Clear 6/4 favourite

Betting on the next First Minister of Scotland is available with betting sites and punters have made no secret as to who they think will be next in the hot seat. We have been taking an in-depth look at 2022 betting markets and one that looks like it has some action to come is the betting on who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon.


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