What the Premier League Would Look Like if Only 90 Minutes Was Considered

Dive into the world of Premier League football where FIFA's latest added time directive has revolutionized the duration of games, leaving the traditional match length in its wake. Learn how these changes affect the standings and betting strategies, and what if league outcomes were frozen at 90 minutes. This article offers an in-depth analysis of the potential impact on your favourite teams, the league table itself, and which Betting Sites offer 90-minute betting options.

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Current and Correct Premier League Table

*Everton 8 points deducted, Nottingham Forest 4 Points Deducted

Arsenal find themselves at the top of the Premier Leaue table but their one-point lead over Manchester City comes at the cost of having played a game more than the Etihad outfit. These two teams gunning out it for the title. Will it be the Gunners or the Cityzens who finish on top.

A two-horse race that was previously three and with Liverpool’s downturn in form over the past couple of weeks, it looks as if Jurgen Klopp will not get his fairytale Premier League crown delivered to Anfield in just a few weeks.

At the bottom, Everton’s run-in with the football laws has seen them suffer another two-point deduction, but even with eight now deducted, the Toffees have managed to pull themselves clear of the relegation zone and have marked themselves safe for another season.

The same cannot be said for the other team that has suffered a deduction and with Nottingham Forest also falling foul of the financial regulators, the City Ground outfit now have both Luton and Burnley still hoping to overtake them on the final day of the season.  

90 Minute Premier League Table

Now that the real life Premier League table is in place, we can look at the 90 minute table and see what changes have been made. Who benefits the most from added time? Who wishes there was no concept of additional minutes? 

*Everton 8 points deducted, Nottingham Forest 4 Points Deducted

If the Premier League had no added time attached to its 2023/24 matches, it would be Manchester City who would currently rule the roost. A massive seven points clear at the top, as Arsenal find themselves placed as their nearest challengers.

A margin this big only highlights how important injury time has been and with Arsenal being so far behind in this table compared to in real life, it does suggest that the Emirates outfit have done a lot of their heavy lifting as the seconds begin to run out.

From there the Gunners would be better off than Liverpool by another five points and with this chasm of points between the Anfield outfit and their Manchester-based rivals, even the matches stopping at 90 minutes would do them no real favours.   

Sitting fourth in the table would be Aston Villa and in the battle for the remaining Champions League place, they would find themselves a further six clear of Tottenham – positions that are mimicking what is happening is real life.

Rounding out the top six would be Newcastle, the Magpies edging Manchester United out of the top six by goal difference alone but both teams securing European football. In addition to this, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Brighton would all find themselves in the top 10.

At the bottom, the picture begins to get worse for Luton and although they have been assisted by the recent points deduction to Nottingham Forest, in this table they find themselves ten points from safety in 19^th.

The Hatters have now been leapfrogged by Burnley and although Vincent Kompany’s men have offered some form of resurgence in this table, they still find themselves eight points short of the current safety marker.    

Points Difference

With two contrasting tables now in play, the next step is to see the points difference between the two and in doing this, we can see who the true profiteers of adding time are and who ends up bemoaning all this newfound added time.

While there is something to be said for leaving it late and with Arsenal earning a net profit of six additional points in added time and all those additional entries have fired the Gunners to the top of the Premier League table.

Six additional points for Arsenal, the same number of additional points for Liverpool and although both have profited the most from late goals, the latter’s propensity to concede in regulation time has hampered their title bid.  

Two more points than Chelsea who have gained four additional points from late goals and with Cole Palmer aiming to finish the season at the top of the Premier League scoring charts, there is no underestimating his contribution in front of goal.

The Blues have gained a single point more than West Ham and Aston Villa and although the latter have designs of playing in Europe, their West Midlands counterparts now look a near certainty for the Champions League.  

In terms of the relegation battle, a now-relegated Sheffield United find themselves five points worse off because of late goals. While Nottingham Forest who are clinging on for dear life within the reality of the Premier League find themselves seven worse off.

This highlights just how brutal the conceding of late goals has been for Nuno Espirito Santo’s men and if they are not careful, switching off at the very end could see them switched out of next season’s Premier League.

If the relegation battle was decided on late points swings alone, it would be Crystal Palace joining both the Blades and Forest in the bottom three. Not a huge concern for the new Palace manager Oliver Glasner, but certainly something to be aware of before next season.

Positional Comparison

Finally, we can add another layer of context by comparing a team’s position from the 90 minute table to the overall table and see who has benefitted the most from a positional standpoint: 

When all the numbers are crunched and the positions are all realigned, we can see that eight clubs have currently profited from late goals. However, some have profited more than others and the biggest profit can be found in East London.

Although West Ham have profited three positions because of late goals, that will not be enough to save manager David Moyes and with the Scot being replaced by Spaniard Julen Lopteegui at the end of the season, it seems as if the efforts of the current Hammers boss have been all in vain.

Behind them, seven clubs find themselves a position better off because of late drama. The biggest gain in terms of what the increase means is Arsenal with their boost from second to first. Honourable mentions must also go to Chelsea, Bournemouth. Wolves, Fulham, Everton and Luton

Eight clubs profiting, another six feeling the pinch at the other end. Bournemouth the worst of all and if the clocked stopped on 90, the Cherries would be just outside the European positions. Instead, they currently find themselves in 14^th and five places worse off.

With just six teams being unaffected at the time of writing, it perhaps suggest that every club in their own way is being affected by late goals. Just with the other fourteen that were just mentioned, they are getting affected in a slightly bigger way.

Methodology

One of the main takeaways from the 2022 FIFA World Cup was not necessarily Lionel Messi finally getting his hands on the one prize that had constantly eluded him until then but more the amount of additional minutes played within the confines of Qatar.

A newly added time directive from FIFA saw time-wasting quickly become a thing of the past, and with some games creeping into 100-minute territory without anything in the way of a serious injury, it certainly added a new dimension to any fixture played on the game’s biggest stage.

Although there were plenty of additional minutes to be added, the directive was largely deemed a success and if players wanted to try and kill the clock as they would in the past, they would simply see those same seconds added back on.

As always, if a directive is a success in the World Cup it will then soon trickle down to domestic competitions and at the start of the 2023/24 season, the Premier League decided to take the same stance on timewasting.

Again, this has led to a flurry of additional minutes being added to proceedings and not only are paying supporters getting more action overall but it also widening the number of minutes available for in-play betting.

Something which has created a double-edged sword for those who like a weekend wager, as although it does offer punters more time for a bet to get over the line, it also offers the same additional minutes for it all to go wrong. 

Thankfully the bookies have tried to see off this threat and offer something of a safety net when it comes to late, late goals. With new 90-minute markets in place, it means any goals in the newfound abundance of added time will not affect the outcome just seconds before.

This got us thinking, what if the Premier League was decided on results at 90 minutes? The clock stops dead and all those late twists in the tale are erased, as a consequence, the league table could have a completely different look to it.

This meant the next step was to record all this season’s Premier League results slice off all the goals post 90 minutes and see how those final scores would comprise a league table with this new criteria.

Source

https://fbref.com/en/

Data correct as of 10th May 2024