ARQ007

This 5yo Westerner gelding won his sole start in PtPs and then made a winning debut for his new connections at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day. Just didn't get home when a distant seventh of 11 to Captain Cody in the Easter Festival Novices' Hurdle at Fairyhouse (20f, heavy) 31 days ago but that was after finishing second to Tullyhill here over 2m in a Listed heat. This is a drop in level and he should be bang there.

It's not often one stands in front of the Willie Mullins juggernaut but I will here with this 8yo Kayf Tara gelding who made the most of a drop to a lower grade when doubling his tally over hurdles at Naas (19.1f) in February then improved again when fourth in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. Still looks fairly treated, a decent 7 pound claimer aboard (who has ridden him on his last 6 runs) and should be bang there.

I just feel that this total is too low. Parrizas-Diaz (ranked 133) is a really decent clay courter and although the 32yo Spaniard isn't in great form, her performances have been better than the bare results would suggest. Bogdan (ranked 64) is also a solid clay court player but is also not in great form at present.

I just feel that this is too many games to give a head start. Parrizas-Diaz (ranked 133) is a really decent clay courter and although the 32yo Spaniard isn't in great form, her performances have been better than the bare results would suggest. Bogdan (ranked 64) is also a solid clay court player but is also not in great form at present.

A look at just a couple of stats here should tell you where this is going. Since 2022, Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is 5-7 on clay vs opponents inside the top 50. In that same time period, world #6 Ruud is 33-11 on clay vs top 50 ranked opponents, 4-5 vs top 10 opposition. The 25yo from Norway made the final in Monte Carlo then beat his vanquisher there, Tsitsipas, to take the Barcelona title. He’s won both matches here in Madrid in straight sets and the level of opposition that FAA has beaten to get here doesn’t suggest he’s really raised his level in what’s been a mediocre season so far for the 23yo Canadian.

A small risk on Tony Carroll's 10yo Lope de Vega gelding who's not getting any younger but likes it here at Brighton (a former C&D winner and his last 4 runs here read 30123). He had 4 wins from 18 runs last year and ran into a decent fourth of 10 in a handicap at Lingfield (8f, AW) 39 days agoHe runs off a 4 lb lower mark on turf and has a 7 pound claimer in teh sadlle.

A huge number but I’ll chance the Overs here as the last three sets that these two big servers have played in their H2Hs have been TBs, and the one prior to that was 7-5. Both have served well here in Madrid, no surprise given the 600m+ of altitude. It’s a daytime match so conditions will increase speed, and I think breaks will be tough to find.

Although I feel Haddad Maia (ranked 14) can test world #1 Swiatek here (see my Games Total and Games Won tips write ups), the fact is that clay is Swiatek’s domain. The 20yo Pole is an astounding 42-4 on clay since 2022 and 37 of her wins were in straight sets and she’s 14-3 vs top 20 opponents.

As per my Games Total tip (see separate write up), I think conditions are in favour of Haddad Maia (ranked 14) here in Madrid (day match, sunny, 600m+ of altitude) and she’s caused world #1 Swiatek some issues in the past ??" in fact she beat her in their first ever encounter on outdoor hard in Toronto in 2022. I think she keeps this close.

Cobolli (ranked 64) didn’t start his clay season especially well but 2 decent wins here in Madrid and the 21yo Italian has served pretty well in these quick conditions (for clay) in Madrid (where we have 600m+ of altitude, which gives the ball some zip!). Both his wins here thus far took a deciding set, as it did for Khachanov (ranked 17) in his match vs Bautista-Agut. Both men won over 74% of first serve points LTO and they’ve never played one another before, which always makes me lean to Overs.

I understand that Andreva (ranked 43) is a very good up-and-coming talent but the 17yo Russian is still pretty green in some regards and although she’s 7-6 career vs top 20 players, she’s been a little flattered in some of those matches by her opponents really not playing their best. And it’s notable that she’s just 2-7 at the R16 stage of events in her career (0-2 in QFs) with her 2 wins vs lower ranked opposition. Understandable given her age and associated pressures. Paolini (ranked 13) is having her best ever season and the 28yo Italian looking like she’s enjoying life. She’s 16-8 this season, with a Masters 1000 title in Dubai and her only clay loss so far in a decider vs eventual winner Rybakina in Stuttgart. She pretty much dismantled Garcia in straight sets here LTO and is 17-5 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked 20+. I just think she’s a better chance to win here than the odds suggest.

I just feel that this line is an over-reaction to world #3 Gauff's 6-0,6-0 win over Rus here LTO. I just think Rus got caught in the headlights and it's worth noting the 20yo American doesn't have the best pedigree here in Madrid where the ball flies pretty fast. That will help Yastremska (ranked 34) and whilstthe 23yo Ukrainian can be a bit wild (see her 0-6 first set loss LTO), now she's acclimatised to the conditions here I think she'll make this a test.

I just feel that this line is an over-reaction to world #3 Gauff's 6-0,6-0 win over Rus here LTO. I just think Rus got caught in the headlights and it's worth noting the 20yo American doesn't have the best pedigree here in Madrid where the ball flies pretty fast. That will help Yastremska (ranked 34) and whilstthe 23yo Ukrainian can be a bit wild (see her 0-6 first set loss LTO), now she's acclimatised to the conditions here I think she'll keep this close.

Coric (ranked 34) has given World #5 Zverev issues over the years, as is reflected in the 3-3 career H2H (and only 2 of those have been decided in straight sets, one on grass which Zverev - who lost - doesn't do well on). I like Zverev to do well here in Madrid - an event he's won twice and lost in a final - but he's a notoriously slow starter in tournaments whilst Coric has a match under his belt.

As per my Games Total tip (see separare write up) we know that Coric (ranked 34) has given World #5 Zverev problems over the years, the career H2H is 3-3 and only two of those have been decided in straight sets (one on grass which Zverev - who lost - doesn't like). I like Zverev to do well here in Madrid - an event he's won twice and lost in a final - but he's a notoriously slow starter in tournaments whilst Coric has a match under his belt.

Joseph O’Brien’s 104 rated 3yo Ifraaj colt has 2 wins from 4 runs last year and was certainly not disgraced in his final run when a 3.75 lengths fifth in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh (8f, soft). First run back after 7 months and up in trip but that should suit, yard in good form and this a drop in grade

Lucinda Russell’s 5yo Kingston Hill gelding shaped like a stayer when filling the runner-up spot in both his Irish PtPs and showed an action which lends itself to nicer conditions. He stepped up on previous Rules efforts when failing by a whisker in an Ayr maiden hurdle (2m, good to soft) last month. Should be thereabouts.

I'm not over the moon about this number (I missed 23.5) but at Evens it's the value option and likely reflects the scheduling for this match, on Stadium 3 at La Caja Mágica. That's pretty much an indoor arena so with the altitude in Madrid (600m+) it's fast for a clay event. We have 2 big servers. World #9 Hurkacz has a masive serve, the tall 27yo Pole renowned for his big delivery and even on clay he uses that weapon effectively. He's equally not great at returning and in his last 11 matches on dirt he's played, 6 have seen a TB and 3 have seen a TB. One of those matches that saw a TB was earlier this month in Monte Carlo when he beat Draper (ranked 43) in a decidng set TB, a match that mirrored their meeting at the same venue last year, which Hurkcz won 6-3,6-7,7-5. The 22yo Brit also has a big serve and faced just 3 BPs in his opening match here vs Kokkinakis, and he saved 2 of those. In his 2 prior matches on clay (Munich) he faced just 3 BPs in total.

As per my Games Won tip, a small risk on teh Overs here as I can't see Fils having this all his own way, nor either player winning easily. Altmaier (ranked 61) likes these conditions in Madrid (pretty quick with 600m of altitude, high bouncing) and the 25yo German made the QFs (via Qualies) in his only prior visit last year. He lost to Fils (ranked 32) in Barcelona last week but it's very different conditions here and the 19yo Frenchman can be so up and down in his level, as you'd expect from one so young. Plus he's yet to play a match here this year (and has played just 2 in his career, both in Qualies last season), so it could take a while for the "better" player to acclimatise.