CapnBob

Follow Derby but consider myself more a fan of football in general.

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CapnBob's Tips History

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19 May 2024
17:00 England Premier League 2023/24

Brentford (Rel)

To be Relegated

50 WIN

@10.00

Open

0

Brentford have been impressive in their two seasons in the PL although they did benefit in their first season from Eriksen's arrival when their form began to hit a slump. The promoted sides appear favourites to struggle, but the main reason for this tip is two-fold. Firstly, much of Brentford's play is based on being direct & getting the ball to top scorer Ivan Toney (20 goals), who will be banned until January. He is also a threat from set-pieces. Secondly, they have signed a new GK, Flekken, with a strong reputation as a likely replacement for David Raya, meaning that two key areas of the side will suffer disruption. Brentford's strength is that they are a side used to playing in a familiar style. However, they may experience the topsy-turvy season Leicester endured, maybe with a slow start, pick up some form but then hit another slump. It remains to be seen what sort of replacement they may bring in to cover Toney's absence, Wissa has tended to be more effective off the bench & Kevin Schade failed to score after arriving from Freiburg. Brentford may avoid relegation, but might experience a more challenging season.
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18 May 2024
12:00 England League 1 2023/24

Bolton

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

Bolton have the look of Ipswich in terms of how they have been assembling a squad. At the moment, they have five strikers including Dion Charles who scored 21 goals, Bodvarsson, Adeboyejo, Nlundulu & veteran Jerome, and the squad contains players in their prime, 26-30, experienced. They finished 5th in the play-offs, missing out to Barnsley & have a manager in Ian Evatt who has been at the club now for three seasons & ought to be familiar with League 1, which perhaps more open this season than it did last year. They finished the season with the 2nd best defensive record though on loan GK Trafford has left and they have acted by bringing in two new GKs. Evatt knows where his side perhaps need to improve in order to challenge; they failed to score in 5/6 matches at home against the top 7 and suffered 4L against the top 9 away.
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12 May 2024
16:30 Man Utd v Arsenal

Antony

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-50

He has featured more from the bench, but has accumulated five yellows including cards in the home matches against arch rivals, Man City & Liverpool as well as a yellow at Spurs (three elite opponents). This is another high-profile game with a lot at stake for the away side, but has now also acquired more significance for the home team & its manager after the loss at Palace.

Jonny Evans

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.80

Lose

-50

Evans will be starting alongside Casemiro in defence, he has been booked twice this season, but historically he has received 7x yellows in 23 games including 3 in home games for United (first spell) WBA & Leicester. United's bench is full of youngsters, Arsenal's boast three attackers, Jesus, Nketiah & Martinelli, so a tiring United defence could face coming against fresh attackers.

Scott McTominay

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-50

Paul Tierney is one of the less card happy referees in the PL although he does tend to issue more cards in games involving Arsenal when they play an elite/high profile rival including six yellows in 2022. McTominay is expected to return from injury perhaps to bolster the midfield, he has been booked twice in consecutive home games against these opponents (8 games). It's probably testing fate to see if it will be three but he is a whole-hearted energetic player & this ought to be a competitive game in midfield.

Over 4.50

Total Cards

50 WIN

@1.90

Lose

-50

The odds look short considering Paul Tierney's record, he tends to issue 3x cards a match, but this is a match with a lot at stake including pride for the home side as well as the future of Arsenal's title challenge. He issued six in an encounter in 2022. If Man United frustrate their opponents, Arsenal could begin to lose their discipline though Man United are the side playing without real structure. United, too, need to put in a more committed performance after Monday's loss.
11 May 2024
12:30 Fulham v Man City

Issa Diop

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.00

Win

150

He was booked in the corresponding fixture, Adarabioyo has not been in the squad for the last two matches probably due to his desire to leave, with Diop partnering Bassey. He has played the last two matches instead, City are a step in quality compared to Palace & Brentford.

Jack Grealish

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

He was booked last season at Craven Cottage following a mass confrontation. He has received 7 yellows in 20 matches though he has not been booked in his last four appearances, his best run of games without picking up a booking.

Sasa Lukic

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-50

He has been booked three times this season & twice in the last six home matches, a sequence of a yellow followed by two matches without a card, & interestingly, both cards were received after he came on as a sub in the second half, & within minutes of coming on the field.

Over 3.50

Total Cards

50 WIN

@1.85

Win

43

Today's referee will be Anthony Taylor, who has presided over 25 PL matches & issued 126 yellows (ave 5.04). This is a game with something at stake at least for the away side. Fulham are 8th for yellows received (2.06 ave), City bottom for yellows received (1.53) (statsdon'tlie.com). City's opponents usually receive on average 2.24 yellows when playing them at home. Putting aside stats, the gamble is on whether City may find this game more challenging than expected & be pushed though they brushed aside Wolves last week. Taylor was the referee in a game at West Ham where the home side led 2-0 at HT (May 2022).
08 May 2024
20:00 Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

Dani Carvajal

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-50

He was suspended for the first leg at Bayern & his replacement Vasquez was booked at right -back. He could be up against Leroy Sane who has been one of Bayern's more consisent performers this season.

Luka Modric

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

The veteran now tends to make cameo appearances from the bench as his career at Real draws to a close. He came on around the'75 minute mark in the first leg in Germany. If Real get a lead or need to keep/retain possession, he may come on late in the game, & possibly make a tactical foul He was booked - as a starter - in the 2018 SF between Real & Bayern (2nd leg, Real had a 2-1 lead), interesting Casemiro came on as a late sub for Kovacic and was booked late on.
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Min Jae Kim

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

Remains to be seen f he starts, he was at fault for both of Real Madrid's goals in the first leg including conceding the penalty for their equalizer. The movement of Vinicius & Bellingham could cause problems again.
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07 May 2024
20:00 PSG v Borussia Dortmund

Emre Can

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@2.50

Lose

-50

He was booked in the away game in the Group Stage (melee) and also in the QF at Atletico Madrid. He was rested during the weekend victory over Augsburg.

Over 4.50

Total Cards

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

With so much at stake and the tie finely poised, emotions may run high in this game between two sides who have meet other again after being drawn in the same group in this season's UCL where Dortmund lost in Paris & had three players booked . The referee, Orsato from Italy, has history with PSG as the official who oversaw their 2020 UCL final defeat to Bayern (multiple bookings, 4 for each side).
05 May 2024
16:30 Liverpool v Tottenham

Emerson Royal

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.50

Win

125

Tottenham have issues at left -back with injuries to Udogie & Ben Davies, so it remains to be seen if either starts. Royal, normally a right-back, deputized at left back in the loss to Chelsea. He has been booked 3x, once at another elite side, Man City, so Liverpool may target Tottenham 's left flank as a potential weakness.

Rodrigo Bentancur

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@2.75

Lose

-50

After an injury-hit season, he has made 19 appearances & picked up six yellows including five in the last 15 though he hasn't received a yellow in his last 3 PL matches. After playing midweek, Spurs may be feeling fatigue and face a Liverpool side who will have a point to prove after losing controversially to Spurs in late Sep '23 & after seeing their title challenge falter. Liverpool come in on the back on a free week. Bentancur and the rest of the Spurs midfield may find it hard to compete.
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14:00 Brighton v Aston Villa

Valentin Barco

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

A new signing, he has made three appearances and picked up a yellow card in the defeat at Bournemouth. Brighton appear unsettled for a number of reasons (the future of their coach), injuries have disrupted their season and the coach has made over 120 changes this season, young players have come into the team, new signings are also struggling to get up to speed (Baleba). Barco is only 19 and still adapting to the PL. Though Villa played on Thursday, they are 4th and challenging for a UCL spot and could rotate.. Emery may look to exploit some of the relative inexperience in the Brighton line-up.
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14:00 Chelsea v West Ham

Angelo Ogbonna

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@5.00

Win

200

The veteran has started the last two matches & has featured 9x. He has yet to be booked this season though he has been booked twice, both at Stamford Bridge, in 13 appearances. Aguerd was sent off in the corresponding, a game that didn't feature star player, Cole Palmer. Chelsea are ending the season on a positive note and may follow up a derby win against Spurs with another. Ogbonna may find the pace & trickery of Chelsea's front line challenging if he starts.

Michail Antonio

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

He has been booked six times this season including 4x in the last ten (3x away )and in two of his last three London derbies. H2H, he has faced Chelsea 10x & been booked on three visits to Stamford Bridge.
04 May 2024
17:30 Man City v Wolverhampton

Draw

50 WIN

@12.00

Lose

-50

Man City's final four fixtures all look winnable and it is hard to see where they could drop points, perhaps at Fulham though Marco Silva has a record of 12L in H2Hs, maybe he is due a result, but one of City's 3L this season was at Wolves, where they had 33% of the possession, but it was a performance described in the bbc report as 'not solely achieved through backs to the wall defending' & one executed with a plan. Perhaps Wolves may arrive again with something similar in mind, they are under no pressure, safe & midtable after a difficult close-season, and they could frustrate their opponents for long periods. According to the bbc, O'Neill is only one of two English managers (Graham Potter) who has inflicted a defeat on a side managed by Guardiola in 40+ matches. City should score as Wolves haven't kept a clean-sheet in 9 & in 6 on the road. They have, however, drawn 5x at home.
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Hee Chan Hwang

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Has been booked six times this season in 26 apps including the last game at home to Luton though he has yet to be booked in consecutive matches. He was booked in the corresponding fixture. He has been booked in two of his last three matches including a match against another elite title challenger, Arsenal. If Wolves are to contain Man City, they will have to defend from the front which means Hwang may make an attacker's challenge in an effort to win possession.

Nelson Semedo

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.33

Win

166

Booked 10x this season including the corresponding fixture, plays on the right (right back, right midfield), he could be up against Jack Grealish who started the game at Forest.

Over 4.00

Total Cards

50 WIN

@2.05

Push

0

A risk, but there were 11 yellow cards in the corresponding fixture, three coming in the first half & three in added time as Wolves hang on for a famous win. There were 3x each for time-wasting & dissent, Wolves' approach may be to unsettle the home side, they lie 7th in the away table for yellow cards.
15:00 Sheff Utd v Nottm Forest

Gustavo Hamer

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@3.30

Lose

-50

One of Sheff United's constant starters during a difficult season, Hamer has received nine yellows this season, level with Bogle & Ahmedhodzic, though six of Bogle's have come against elite opponents (UCL placed sides). Hamer was booked in the corresponding fixture between the clubs.

Matz Sels

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-50

Appears to be Forest's no.1 GK, Sels has been booked once in 13 appearances since joining, in the game at Luton where he received a yellow late on for dissent (90th minute). If Forest get a lead, Sels may try to wind down the clock (time wasting). Referee Chris Kavanagh is one of the less card happy referees, this game, however, has a lot at stake for the away team. It could be competitive despite Sheff United being relegated, there may be the potential for a melee if Sels receives a challenge during a corner etc, and reacts.

William Osula

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

A former Derby loanee, he may feature in the game as McBurnie is an injury doubt, he has received 4 yellows in 21 matches, 12 of them as a sub.

Over 4.00

Total Cards

50 WIN

@1.75

Push

0

Sheff United top the stats for yellows received at home, Nott'm Forest are 3rd in the away standings for yellows. It doesn't always correlate that this will lead to over 4.00, but there is plenty of history between the two clubs including recently such as the play-off SF, combustible personalities like McBurnie. Sheff United have been relegated but are unlikely to roll over, and this could be a physical contest as they seek to unruffle the away team, Gibbs-White is not averse from picking up regular yellows (9, though only 3 have come in away games). Forest have the better players, but they may need to also win the battle first if they are to secure 3pts.
12:30 Arsenal v Bournemouth

David Raya

Player to be Booked

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

In the corresponding fixture, Arsenal eased past, but Bournemouth have improved immensely since then, & could be dangerous opponents with all the pressure on the home side. Last season, under O'Neill, they led 2-0 before Arsenal won with a goal in added time. Raya has been booked once (at Man City). If this game proves a nervy encounter, Raya may try to wind the clock down & could get booked for time-wasting. Arsenal did slip up against Aston Villa (managed by another Spaniard) recently.
28 April 2024
16:30 Nottm Forest v Man City

Nottm Forest

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Man City should win, however, Nuno has a good H2H record against Guardiola as a manager when a team of his is playing at home, he has two victories, both though came before the turn of a season at New Year. Forest perhaps have a slightly easier run-in on paper, even if they lost here. Last season, Manchester City dominated the game but Forest scored a late equalizer. They have beaten 3 sides in the top 8 at home including Aston Villa. Forest come into this game on the back of several controversies and may feel aggrieved. One reason for this pick is that City played on Thursday against an injury-hit Brighton, Forest are a side who can carry pace on the counter-attack. According to 5live, City rarely drop points in the run-in during recent seasons (at West Ham, 2-2), their record at lower half sides (unbeaten) means another draw might be the more likely result as Forest battle for survival in front of a partisan crowd. However, siding with an unlikely shock win due to Nuno's past record, City's busy schedule, another away match after two days rest against opponents who didn't play midweek.

Under 2.50

Total Goals

50 WIN

@2.62

Win

81

Draw & Yes (Result + BTTS)

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

No Goalscorer

First Goalscorer

50 WIN

@17.00

Lose

-50

Forest are unbeaten in the last three at home but have lost 3 of the last 7. They have only kept 2x clean-sheets this season, but were controversial beaten by a late goal in the 0-1 home loss to Liverpool. They may frustrate Man City here, and football is an unpredictable game, perhaps this match may turn/hinge on a red card, City come into it on the back of a game on Thursday, though the match was over after half an hour, in truth. Forest come into this game on the back of a free week so should be able to match City in terms of energy. Forest were described as putting in a solid, stubborn performance against Liverpool (bbc) with 29% of possession, and they may frustrate City here though, on current form, City may fancy themselves to get past by a single goal. Forest come into this game with a sense of grievance which may motivate both the team & crowd.

Nottm Forest #1-0

50 WIN

@29.00

Lose

-50

Last season, Forest dealt a devatasting blow to Arsenal's title hopes by this scoreline & perhaps they may cause a shock here despite the odds. Arsenal, admittedly, were in more erratic form, City arrive on the back of an unbeaten 18 match run in the PL. Their experience should see them through. Nuno has beaten Man City by this scoreline as a manager of Tottenham (1-0) , on an opening day, before the turn of the Year & a record of 2W 1D 1L. There is probably more chance of Forest getting a vital home victory against an erratic Chelsea side. This match could be tight, Forest frustrate their opponents & a scoreline vary from a low scoring/goalless draw (0-0, 1-1) to a single goal victory either way, or a shock late winner (2-1). After several controversies involving them, perhaps this game may also turn on a decision such as a red card which could overturn expectations of an easy away victory.
27 April 2024
15:00 Fulham v Crystal Palace

Draw #3-3

50 WIN

@51.00

Lose

-50

This game may either end up being a thriller or an end of season tepid draw with an end of season feel. Both managers though tend to play on the front foot and Glasner appears to have transformed Palace with some impressive results. Hodgson was perhaps unfortunate, whatever criticisms, to be often lacking Olise & Eze, two players who transform Palace's dynamic. Fulham carry threats of their own with an in-form Muniz in attack. A London derby, both sides can afford to be positive, now that Palace have secured their PL status. Last season, Silva shared a 2-2 draw at home against these opponents. Going for another high-scoring draw.
12:30 Derby v Carlisle

Carlisle

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

Derby ought to win, they come into this game on the back of good form but nerves could play a part & Carlisle are bringing 2000 fans to a sold-out Pride Park. The main reason for this pick is that Derby once blew the chance of a play-off spot after a final day 0-3 home loss to Reading though it was the culmination of a slump where they earned 12 pts out of a final 39. Interestingly, stalwart Craig Forsyth played in that game & remains part of the Derby squad. This Derby side appears more resilient even if it lacks the quality of that Championship side. Derby have won 7 of their last 10 (1L) and won the last 5 at Pride Park though, interestingly, they are yet to win six durign their stay in L1. Carlisle have had a difficult season, but this is a side who won at Bolton & more recently at Peterborough by a 3-1 scoreline. Derby wouldn't be Derby if they didn't make things difficult for themselves.

Jon Mellish

First Goalscorer

50 WIN

@41.00

Lose

-50

Derby ought to win and last week Carlisle were rocked by the late withdrawal of an on-loan striker, Kayode, which forced Paul Simpson to field a youngster Dudik on the bench. Mellish scored a hat-trick recently against Peterborough in a shock away victory. Carlisle showed brief glimpses of an improvement after relegation looked all but confirmed & have won two of their last three on the road though they are yet to win back to back on the road. They may arrive with the pressure still on the hosts and everything at stake for Derby and play with a surprising freedom.
22 April 2024
20:15 SC Farense v Benfica

Draw

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

21 April 2024
20:00 PSG v Lyon

Draw

50 WIN

@5.25

Lose

-50

Draw #1-1

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

20:00 Real Madrid v Barcelona

Real Madrid

50 WIN

@1.88

Win

44

Madrid will be boosted by a SF qualification though they were under the cosh at Man City but showed enough fortitude. Barcelona exited after leading at one time on aggregate 4-2 before a sending off changed the game & they were forced to play against elite opposition with ten men for around an hour. Real also inflicted a home defeat on their arch rivals who are yet to lose on the road. Factor in, rumours of a dressing-room fall-out following the loss to PSG and Barcelona don't look that far away from being in crisis. They may respond, but Real Madrid look the more unified outfit & have reenergised the team/midfield. Both come into this game having won their last four La Liga games, and Barca may want to atone for that disappointing UCL exit, however, Real Madrid could add to their misery.
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16:30 Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund

50 WIN

@2.62

Lose

-50

Dortmund will be full of confidence after reaching the UCL SF & despatching Atletico Madrid, elite opponents. They have the benefit of an extra days's rest & Bayer Leverkusen's first half performance against West Ham nearly cost them. Leverkusen could go unbeaten throughout the season but face a challenging run of games against sides ranked 5, 6 & 3rd. Dortmund visit RB Leipzig next so will want to get a positive result in the chase for a Champions League spot though it appears the Bundesliga might secure a 5th UCL spot ahead of other leagues. Dortmund are one of only two sides to take points off Leverkusen at home.
1 member found this comment useful

Borussia Dortmund #2-1

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Both sides' performance levels may dip though Dortmund arguably had the more emotional draining game against Atletico Madrid. Leverkusen recovered from a disappointing first half at the London Stadium following changes & a tactical switch, leading to a controlled performance. Dortmund though will want to cap a brilliant week by being the first side to inflict a defeat on the new champions. They are yet to beat any of the top three at home and lost LTO to Stuttgart, Dortmund, however, have something still to play for in terms of Champions League qualification as they lie 5th and are vying with RB Leipizg though 5th might be allotted a CL spot. Leverkusen may lose a slight edge now that the title has been secured. It could very well end up as another 1-1 draw
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20 April 2024
19:30 Wolverhampton v Arsenal

Arsenal #2-1

50 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-50

Arsenal have kept five consecutive clean-sheets on the road & after a busy period, they may concede here & it is not within the bounds of possibility that they could drop further points here. Wolves have only failed to score once at Molineux in a 0-2 home loss to Brentford, and whilst they have had problems in attack with injuries, they can afford to go on the front foot against an Arsenal side who have had a busy week with their UCL games against Bayern Munich. Arsenal may respond after their UCL QF exit, but if the score remains level as the game heads towards its conclusion, Wolves may face concerted pressure though they are dangerous on the counter themselves.
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17:15 Man City v Chelsea

Chelsea (AH) 1.25

Asian Hcap

50 WIN

@1.95

Win+Push

24

Chelsea come into this game, having had to play on a Monday, the main reason for this pick is that Manchester City will be coming off a home game in the Champions League on Tuesday & it will be their second intense game within a week against elite opposition. With the greatest of respect to Luton, they were not Aston Villa who were dangerous opponents for Arsenal to face after their UCL. Chelsea will be motivated here as the FAC remains their only realistic hope to win silverware this season. This is a tie that could go all the way, Chelsea enter this contest knowing that they have drawn twice against City already this season, once at home where they needed a late penalty, but also a draw at the Etihad which came after City had played a first leg UCL knock out tie at Copenhagen in a physical contest. The tie against Real Madrid is likely to be mentally draining. Chelsea's squad may be inexperienced but it is young & should have the energy to get around the sapping Wembley pitch.
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15:00 Carlisle v Wycombe

Draw

50 WIN

@3.60

Lose

-50

Wycombe have been in excellent form, considering their busy recent schedule after the Papa John Trophy final & ought to win here after two wins in a row away at Shrewsbury & Port Vale though they are yet to win three in a row. They may arrive underestimating their relegated opponents who may now play with a new freedom. They are without a win in 9 at home & conceded in 18 consecutive games & their three wins at home have come against sides in the bottom eight. Carlisle may end a challenging season at home without defeat.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 Stockport v Accrington Stanley

Stockport

50 WIN

@1.36

Win

18

Stockport to confirm their L2 title with a win in front of their own fans against an Accrington side who have had a challenging second half of the season & lost 6 of the last nine away though they are yet to lose three in a row away this season. Stockport have won their last 7 matches & 3 at home.
1 member found this comment useful

Stockport #4-0

50 WIN

@17.00

Lose

-50

There will be a party atmosphere at Edgeley Park after Stockport sealed the L2 title with a victory at Notts County. They may go through the motions and seal a comfortable win without overexerting themselves, but going for Stockport to win here by a score-line which Accrington have lost by twice in the last five away games, both at Wrexham & Doncaster.
1 member found this comment useful
19 April 2024
20:00 Oxford Utd v Stevenage

Oxford Utd #4-0

50 WIN

@36.00

Lose

-50

Oxford suffered a costly defeat midweek to play-off rivals, Lincoln, but before that game had scored thirteen goals, hitting four at home to Fleetwood & five against Peterborough. Stevenage are yet to concede over 3.5 goals away this season, but the main reason for this tip is that Steve Evans & his assistant Paul Raynor have left the club to rejoin Rotherham, and whilst the team/squad may galvanize themselves for the final two games of the season, his departure cannot but affect a side now their play-off chances have virtually ended, and could lead to one of their worst performances of the season. Oxford won the corresponding fixture 3-1. Stevenage are without a win in 7 on the road (3D 4L) and have failed to score in their last two away.
18 April 2024
20:00 West Ham v Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Bayer Leverkusen #2-1

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

Leverkusen arrive full of confidence after clinching the Bundesliga with five games remaining. West Ham sat deep in the first leg in Germany and will have to attack which may leave them vulnerable. Their last defeat at home in Europe was to another side from the Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt by this scoreline in the 2021/22 Europa League semis. Bayer perhaps to get another solid lead & West Ham to grab a consolation.
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17:45 Fiorentina v Viktoria Plzen

Viktoria Plzen

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Matej Vydra

First Goalscorer

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

Viktoria Plzen #1-0

50 WIN

@17.00

Lose

-50

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