c4stle
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
c4stle's Tips History
02 May 2024
19:05 7:05 Punchestown
Spindleberry
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.00
Lose
-50
Even money looks very fair for this mare who finished close behind Jade Du Grugy last time in Grade 1 company on just her 2nd hurdle start. Had some good yardsticks in behind including 140-rated Jetara and the drop back in trip doesn't hold concerns.
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Churchstonewarrior
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Churchstonewarrior reverts to hurdles for the first time since 2022 after a promising novice chase campaign that saw him win the Grade 2 Ten Up beating Mahler Mission. Hasn't convinced in open company this year but has been highly tried, pulling up in the Grade 1 Savills Chase and then unseating in the Irish National last time. His hurdles form was equally promising, finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas and 2nd in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse. Officially rated 135 over hurdles which is 11lbs lower than his chase mark and he could be simply too well handicapped not to make the frame.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Three By Two
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Win
140
Can make a case for a few in here including Coko Beach, Birchdale and Fameaftertheglory but the one that looks hugely overpriced is Three By Two. Won over the cross country fences at this meeting last year before finishing 1.25L 3rd three days later. Wasn't at her best on heavy ground back in February but much better when sent off fav here last time, eventually finishing 4th. Untried and unexposed at marathon trips but stayed on well over 25f when winning here last year and being just an 8yo she could yet improve for it. Stable in good form having had 6 winners from last 26 runners mainly in the p2p circuit.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Blood Destiny
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.50
Lose
-50
Drops into handicap company having traded blows with Spillane's Tower at the top table, winning once at todays 16f trip. That rival won the Grade 1 novice chase on the first day and back at 16f I think Blood Destiny is more than capable of defying a mark of 150 having also comfortably dispatched the now-150 rated Heart Wood by 9L on his chase debut (albeit in receipt of 8lbs weight for age allowance).
Subtotal-10
01 May 2024
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
The Goffer
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@8.50
Lose
-50
The Goffer doesn't stay 24f as evident when fading in the last two Ultima Chases when looking to be travelling strongly. He's run with credit in staying handicap chases from marks in the high 140s, with multiple placed efforts, but today drops back to around 21f for the first time since his comfortable win in a handicap chase at the DRF in 2023 from a mark of 138. His mark has also dropped as a result and he runs today from 143 which has to see him in with a strong chance.
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Hewick
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Win
45
Likely that most of the field are playing for second place given the imperious form GDC has shown over staying trips this season including the Gold Cup last time. Outside of him arguably the next best form is Hewick's win in the King George when rattling home to win the Grade 1 contest and he should get his preferred quick ground here today. The run over hurdles last time should have him primed for a big performance and after a fairly light campaign he should be fresher than most.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Lecky Watson
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
I'm going to give Lecky Watson another chance after being poorly positioned the last twice when still posting decent form. Three starts back he finished 0.5L behind Supreme Novice winner Slade Steel and his trainer was at pains to point out that he might have gotten closer in the Grade 1 Lawlor of Naas with a cannier ride. Dancing City was impressive last time but I don't trust the Barlett form as nothing got into it from off the pace and he's turned out again quickly following his win at Aintree. I think Lecky Watson can yet prove to be a proper Grade 1 animal and this doesn't look a massively strong contest with half the field needing to bounce back from under par performances.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Mistergif
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.88
Lose
-50
Has been running in Grade 1 novice hurdles the last twice and the form of that looks strong. Favour And Fortune finished behind Mistergif in the Supreme and subsequently won the Scottish Champion Hurdle whilst the 1st, 2nd and 3rd have all filled the same places in Grade 1 company since. Simply put his form is the best on offer and he has potential to improve after just three starts for Willie Mullins, stepping up in trip for the first time.
Subtotal-105
30 April 2024
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
Montys Star
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
I like Blood Destiny and would like to look positively on the formlines with Spillane's Tower but that's simply not in the same league as Monty's Star who has had just the three starts over fences but is proven at the trip. Beaten by National Hunt Chase winner Corbetts Cross on debut over fences before comfortably dispatching Three Card Brag on his second start. 2nd last time out to Fact To File is the strongest form on offer and he's been freshened up again since. Won't mind any rain that falls and looks the solid choice for a stable in good form (25% last 14 days).
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Dinoblue
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.88
Lose
-50
Won a handicap on this card last year but taken her form to new levels since, winning a Grade 1 Chase at Leopardstown (beating GDM by 7.5L) before finishing behind El Fabiolo at the DRF. Finished a closing 2nd to Limerick Lace giving away 5lbs in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham but should appreciate the drop back in trip and can outclass this field in receipt of the mares allowance.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Nusret
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 21.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG
@21.00
Win
75
A mark of 139 looks lofty enough in such a competitive race but he's a much better horse going right handed and with just 5 hurdle starts going that way round could still have more improvement. Won on his first start here (and first over hurdles) and then finished 4th in a Grade 1 Juvenile on this card last year. That looks decent form with Lossiemouth winning, and the 2nd placed horse Zarak The Brave now rated 152 after performing well in open graded company since winning the Galway Hurdle last summer. Nusret finished about 6L behind him and will appreciate the quicker ground than he's had over obstacles so far this season. Off since December on account of the ground but I'm sure will be primed for this valuable handicap n
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Ile Atlantique
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@19.00
Lose
-50
Willie Mullins has conceded in the build up to this that he might have read Ile Atlantique all wrong having been running over 20f + since winning his maiden. Has still gone well including a close 2nd in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas and likely to revert to more positive tactics to make the most of his jumping, he could spring a minor surprise in this field.
Subtotal-75
29 April 2024
14:45 2:45 Ayr
See My Baby Jive
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Rattled off a hat trick of C&D wins last summer, all with soft in the going description. Those wins came from marks of 46, 49 and 53. Following a few runs over 7f on the AW she's dropped to a mark of 53 (her last winning mark) and the stable are having a good time of things recently, with 2 winners, 2nd, 3rd and 5th (of 16) with their runners across the last couple of weeks. That gives some confidence that she can defy the break (off since November) and a track and in conditions she clearly relishes.
Subtotal-50
27 April 2024
16:10 4:10 Sandown
Impaire Et Passe
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Win
69
Value for more than the bare result last time when not doing anything in front, veering across the track. His form is still clear of the rest, finishing close behind Stayers Hurdle champion Teahupoo and then behind Champion Hurdle winner State Man. Has gone ok when backed up quickly before and I'd expect a more patient ride today which can see him confirm superiority in this company.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Sandown
Nick Rockett
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Highly touted novice who was antepost favourite for some of the graded chase at Cheltenham but bypassed that engagement, being sent off fav for the Irish National last time. Finished 7th that day in heavy ground from a mark of 146 and although he's won on heavy I think the combination of trip and ground might have been too much of a test for a horse with just 4 chase starts. Arguably his best performance so far came on yielding ground when winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse by 15L and whilst Kittys Light will be a tough nut to crack I'd be shocked if a UK mark of 147 was this horses ceiling and I think he can make amends in more forgiving conditions.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
The Real Whacker
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.50
Lose
-50
This looks a weak enough contest, with doubts about many of these including my selection... Easy Game has some back form that reads very well and anything Mullins sends across needs respect but he's got to give weight away in Graded company and I think might have too much on his plate. The Real Whacker showed signs of a comeback on Trials day when finishing 2nd behind Capadanno in the Cotswold Chase and I fancy the drop back in trip will suit as I'm not sure he absolutely gets 24f+. He's unraced at Sandown but it should play to his strengths and if getting into a rhythm up front we've seen how hard it can be to peg back front runners here. Happy to forgive his Gold Cup effort when never finding his groove and hopefully can make amends here.
1 member found this comment useful
14:17 2:17 Navan
Givemethebeatboys
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 3.75 on 26/04 at 18:440.20 deduction for His Majesty@5.00 withdrawn at 10:25R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.75 x (1-0.20) = 3.20
@3.20
Win
110
Has to concede weight to all his rivals but with good reason having won a Group 3 last season before finishing 4th in the Coventry and then plying his trade at Group 1 level subsequently. Yard has a good record in this, winning 3 renewals since 2017, and he was good to go first time last season so could be primed for this en route to bigger things.
Subtotal79
26 April 2024
17:50 5:50 Downpatrick
Surf Club
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-50
If transferring his form over fences (winner 4 days ago) back to the smaller obstacles he's a penalty kick here for the Champion Trainer as he bids to back Paul Townsend for Champion Jockey. Improved markedly for the step up in trip last time and despite being a maiden over hurdles he's only had 4 runs and all over what looks an inadequate trip. Competition doesn't look strong and he had an easy enough race LTO so can back up here with another win.
Subtotal-50
23 April 2024
16:10 4:10 Tipperary
Music Of Tara
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Win
137
Rated 122 over hurdles, failing to see out the trip at 24f last time when brought down at the rear of the field. Former point winner who should appreciate and could improve for fences. In receipt of 10lbs from the 130-rated So Des Flos she looks weighted for a big effort on chase debut.
15:35 3:35 Tipperary
Now Is The Hour
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@2.88
Void
0
Fancied Now Is The Hour when pulled out at Down Royal a week ago and I think this Grade 2 hurdle winner showed enough on chase debut to suggest that he can put the rest of this field to the sword. Former p2p winner but also won a maiden at this trip and can make his class show.
Subtotal137
21 April 2024
16:00 4:00 Curragh
Jumbly
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Hasn't won since joining Joseph O'Brien but all runs have come at either Group 2 or Group 1 level (including American equivalents) and this represents a huge drop in class down to Listed level. Has to concede race fitness to some but has finished 2nd on last two seasonal reappearances both at a higher level and ran well on her only start here in the past.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
20 April 2024
15:55 3:55 Curragh
White Birch
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 4.00 takenBOG
@4.33
Win
166
I napped White Birch for this race when it was abandoned due to an untraceable track, and with most of the field standing their ground I don't see any reason to abandon him. His form lines are above those most of his rivals have posted, having finished 2nd in the Dante and 3rd in The Derby over 12f. His only win last season came in the Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown in heavy ground, and although that form isn't at the same level it shows he can go well fresh and will handle the poor conditions better than most.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Ayr
Mr Vango
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Really competitive contest with lots of proven starters mixed with unexposed types that could improve for this marathon trip. Mr Vango ticks both boxes having had just three starts over fences, winning by 60L on his first start at a marathon trip before finishing a very respectable 3rd in the National Hunt Chase behind Graded horses in Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens. Likely to make a bold show from the front in favourable conditions, and I think a mark 135 still leaves him with lots in hand being so lightly raced.
15:15 3:15 Newbury
Navagio
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Competitive handicap with the last two winners coming from the Lincoln to win here next time, and only 3 have won this without a prep run since 2011 so fitness is clearly a big positive. Navagio caught the eye in the Lincoln when short of room toward the finish, still running well to finish 3rd from todays mark of 96. That was on soft ground but he's equally adept on a quicker surface and his low draw looks ideal with loads of pace nearby. Can make amends on his 2nd UK start.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Newbury
Zoum Zoum
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.25
Lose
-50
Boasts 3 wins from 3, first on the AW and then twice on heavy ground, latterly at Listed level in France. The form of his Newmarket win two starts back looks strong, with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time, and his sire was a Group 1 winner on good ground in Australia so the quicker surface could yield further improvement at a trip he's proven over.
14:25 2:25 Ayr
Bialystok
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Happy to forgive him the run last time when down the field in the County Hurdle on poor ground and on that basis he looks well handicapped from a mark of 137. That's 1lb lower than when brought down in a competitive handicap hurdle at the DRF when travelling strongly and just 7lbs higher than when winning a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival as a novice last year. His trainer has an eye on the UK trainers championship and any ride Paul Townsend takes in a handicap needs to be respected. This is calmer waters than the last twice and he's weighted to go well.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-34
19 April 2024
15:20 3:20 Ayr
Doddiethegreat
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-50
More than happy to strike a line through his run at Cheltenham last time given the stable form was in the doldrums but he still managed to finish mid division. Sent off 9/1 that day despite the form of the Henderson yard and that speaks volumes of the progression expected from this horse from todays mark of 132. 4th in the Betfair Hurdle two starts back, a neck behind subsequent Imperial Cup winner Go Dante giving away 3lbs. Also gave 3lbs to County Hurdle 2nd Leau Du Sud who finished two places ahead of him. The step back up to 21f is expected to suit (ignoring last time) and soft ground no issue either.
Subtotal-50
18 April 2024
18:15 6:15 Clonmel
Hollow Games
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.20
Lose
-50
With Gaelic Arc returning from almost 500 days off the track this looks like a two horse race. The Mullins horse has had just the one start over fences which was a winning one but that doesn't tell the full story with the front two falling at the last when both clear. Hollow Games on the other hand is a seasoned pro with 8 starts over fences, winning on his first start and running with credit in top level handicaps including when 3rd in the Galway Plate. Has found his level since, finishing mid division in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas from a mark of 144 and then similar over hurdles at Cheltenham from the same mark. That suggests he's likely a high 130s horse but evidence suggests that might be enough to beat the Mullins horse who was fairly exposed over hurdles and reached a mark of 134.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Spycatcher
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@8.50
Lose
-50
Spycatcher ran with plenty of credit in a pair of 6f Group 1s last year, finishing a neck 2nd in the Maurice Du Gheest at Deauville and latterly 3rd in the Group 1 Champion Sprint at Ascot in October. Both of those came on soft ground but he also dotted up on a quick surface to win a Group 3 in France and conditions here should be fine. His record fresh breathes confidence, with figures of 1-1-1 after more than 100 days off the track and with a huge lack of pace on offer it could pay to be up near the front as he's been ridden the last twice.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
17 April 2024
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Abate
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Two against the field in this competitive big field handicap and I think Abate represents a really solid each way bet. He's the only genuine front runner in the field and had a really impressive 2023 seasom which included four wins from marks of 75, 75, 81 & 82. Won over C&D two starts back with subsequent winners back in 2nd, 4th, 6th and 7th, before almost following up on his final start at Ripon from 2lbs higher. Has won first time out in the past and stable have had 2 winners from their last 5 runners so clearly in good form. Goes from a career high mark of 85 but regular rider Mia Nicholls takes off 5lbs and I think he can catch a few on the hop.
Great Ambassador
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
A chance is taken on Great Ambassador who hasn't been seen since finishing 0.5L 3rd in a Listed contest on the July Course in August 2022. In his absence he's dropped to a mark of 100 which is 8lbs below his peak, and 6lbs below the mark from which he was ultra competitive in the 2022 Stewards Cup two starts back. Excuses that day he's extremely well handicapped if ready to go first time up. Stable are in fine form including two winners today (Tuesday) at Newmarket, both on seasonal debut. Doesn't look loads of pace on offer but Abate will go forward from stall 13 and there are forward goers in stalls 17/18 too. Great Ambassador will be help up but from stall 16 he could get a nice lead into the race in conditions which will suit fine. Win bet only as he's either on song and has 7/8lbs in hand or this is a seasonal tune up which would see him completely out the frame after 599 days off.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
16 April 2024
15:50 3:50 Naas
Coillte Aris
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@6.00
Lose
-50
Paul Townend keeps the faith having been jocked up on Coiltte Aris last time, sent off 9/2 fav from todays mark of 91. That was just her 2nd handicap start and was doing her best work at the end, suggesting this form p2p runner can improve for the step up to 19.5f now in handicap company, in similar conditions to last time.
13:30 1:30 Naas
Union Station
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
Finishing 3rd on all three hurdles starts, first behind Tullyhill on debut and then latterly behind Glen Kiln and last time behind Rainbow Trial and Well Dressed. Rainbow Trial finished close behind Tounsivator who was sent off 3/1 for the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse which gives the form a solid look and I think the drop back to 16.5f at a track he's gone well in the past (similar C&D to his debut 3rd behind Supreme Novice horse Tullyhill) can yield a positive result in conditions he will appreciate.
Subtotal-100
14 April 2024
17:25 5:25 Down Royal
The Abbey
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.00
Lose
-50
The Abbey beat Yeah Man by 4.75L on his previous visit to Down Royal which came over C&D. In receipt of 17lbs that day but that rival is now rated 140 meaning The Abbey could yet be well treated off a higher mark of 115 at a track he clearly goes well and in the same conditions.
16:15 4:15 Down Royal
Now Is The Hour
Daily Racing
50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@2.10
Void
0
Grade 2 winner over hurdles at 24f as well as a maiden winner at 20f. Started off over fences last time at the minimum trip of 16f and ran a decent race to finish 1.75L to Summer Tide giving away 5lbs, but should really appreciate the step back up in trip here. His hurdles form sets the standard and chase debut showed enough promise to suggest there's plenty more time come at longer trips.
Subtotal-50
13 April 2024
17:00 5:00 Aintree
Found A Fifty
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Win
112
We've already seen the Arkle form franked by Il Etait Temps when comfortably dispatching Grey Dawning and Ginnys Destiny so for all the reasons I'm with Master Chewy each way, I think Found A Fifty is the likeliest winner. Jumped really well that day before Gaelic Warrior showed his class to pull away to the hill. A return to a flatter track and what looks to be calmer waters (no superstar in here) are both positives and I think Elliot can notch up another Aintree winner.
1 member found this comment useful
Master Chewy
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Win
35
Travelling strongly when coming down at the 2nd last in the Arkle and every chance he'd have finished in the mix with Found A Fifty. Il Etait Temps franked that forming when bolting up over 20f today and Gaelic Warrior simply looks like a superstar on his day. The Twiston-Davies runner has a strong record at Aintree, winning a novice handicap by 12L from a mark of 121 on his debut over fences (beating 3 subsequent winners in behind) and followed that up by just failing to give Djelo 3lbs over the same C&D. That rival is in here but stable are struggling for winners and I think Master Chewy has improved since as seen in his 2nd to subsequent Grade 1 winner Elixir Du Nutz in open handicap company. Should handle conditions at a track he clearly enjoys.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Aintree
Mahler Mission
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
I never want to be too far back in the National and Mahler Mission should be ridden prominently. Has proven his stamina when falling with the race at his mercy in the 2023 National Hunt Chase in front of 2023 National 3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil. 2nd in the Coral Gold Cup last time and 7lbs higher today but the winner Datsalrightgino proved himself to be a graded horse and I think Mahler Mission will be uniquely suited by this sort of stamina test. Has won on good and on soft/heavy so ground will be fine whatever and I think he's the solid choice to him the frame. Other picks include Limerick Lace, Eldorado Allen and Stattler.
2 members found this comment useful
Meetingofthewaters
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
I think to back something win only in this they need to really be a potential handicap blot and the one that meets that criteria is Meetingofthewaters for Willie and Danny Mullins. Bolted up at Christmas from a mark of 130 when in receipt of 10lbs from Panda Boy (big weight swing in favour of that rival) and the unseated at the DRF. His run in the Ultima was his 6th over fences which got him qualified for this and I don't imagine winning was necessarily the aim with the National in mind. Runs here today from 147 but could still have 10+ lbs in hand which can't be said for most of this field. This feels like a long term project which can yield a positive result for the Irish (and possibly British) champion trainer elect.
2 members found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Aintree
Hiddenvalley Lake
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
It's a tip in itself that Robcour have decided Hiddenvalley Lake is the one for this. I didn't expect Teahupoo to back up but really fancied Irish Point to romp home following his Christmas Hurdle win and Champion Hurdle 2nd. Still fairly lightly raced after just five hurdle starts, and has run respectably over 3m in the past including when 9th in the Albert Bartlett last year. Went chasing initially (likely because of the riches Robcour have over hurdles) but tipped up and sent back over hurdles instead, winning the Boyne Hurdle cosily over the smaller obstacles. Ground versatile and step back up in trip shouldn't be an issue having finished 2nd to Monty's Star as a novice. I'll be tipping Strong Leader each way but Hiddenvalley Lake can continue a rich vein of form for the De Bromhead stable.
1 member found this comment useful
Strong Leader
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 11.00 on 11/04 at 21:030.00 deduction for Proschema@101.00 withdrawn at 09:190.15 deduction for Sire Du Berlais @6.500 withdrawn at 12:23R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 10.00 x (1-0.15) = 9.50
@9.50
Win
255
Narrowed this down to two against the field having tipped Hiddenvalley Lake for Henry De Bromhead but I'm also following in on Strong Leader for the in form Olly Murphy team (26% last 14 days). Has run twice at the track in the past , winning a novice hurdle by 8L before finishing 2nd to Inthepocket in the Grade 1 16f Top Novices last April. Ran credibly on his first try at 24f at Cheltenham on Trials Day, coming from a long way back to finish 3rd behind Noble Yeats and Paisley Park. Didn't look to handle the track brilliantly that day and should be suited by a return to this flatter course.
2 members found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Aintree
Crebilly
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
Crebilly couldn't quite get to Shakem'up Harry but he was doing good work at the business end, suggesting that this step up in trip will suit. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill has won this twice from seven runners and I think a 3lbs rise could still underestimate him with the promise of more improvement to come at this longer trip. Novice form in behind Grey Dawning and Ginnys Destiny reads better and better, and Trelawne (split Crebilly from that pair) was backed into 5/1 for the Ultima before unseating at the first which highlights connections feel there's lots of scope for that horse from a mark of 144. All points to him still being well handicapped after just 4 starts over fences and conditions should suit him fine with it likely to dry a bit by Saturdays racing.
1 member found this comment useful
13:55 1:55 Aintree
Brighterdaysahead
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 11/04 at 15:280.25 deduction for Caldwell Potter@4.00 withdrawn at 19:27R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.25) = 2.50
@2.50
Win
75
Didn't get the best of rides in the Mares Novice last time, being pipped for toe in a tactical contest. She's a real staying type who has thrived with plenty of cut in the ground. Could be drier by Saturday but I'm sure it'll still be on the soft side of good and she's likely to go through the holding ground better than most. Her form prior to Cheltenham was a bit of a non-event as she had won cosily in her three starts over hurdles, including over 21f prior to the festival. Cheltenham form will be tested Friday at 14:55 but I suspect she's much better than she's shown on the course so far, with her trainer always enthusiastic, and I expect the step back up to 20f to suit as she will get every yard of this trip and looks the solid option against rivals with points to prove.
2 members found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Aintree
Chantry House
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
I really fancied Chantry House for a big run at Cheltenham but the stable form was in the doldrums and he finished just 10th of 22. He's been dropped another 2lbs for that effort to a mark of 141 which is 19lbs lower than his rating when winning the Cotswold Chase in January 2022 and he's shown some signs of a revival recently over hurdles including when 3rd at Cheltenham in November from 6lbs higher when behind Stayers Hurdle 4th giving him 7lbs. Has gone well at Aintree before with figures of 1-U from two visits and his blinkers are retained from last time. Stable had a winner today (Thursday) and I'd expect a bigger run today at a much bigger price than last time.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal227
12 April 2024
17:15 5:15 Aintree
Maidenstreetprince
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
If drawing a line through his run two starts back at Galway (first run for 285 days) Maidenstreetprince looks really well handicapped from this UK mark 128 under a 3lbs claimer. Won at Limerick in December 2022 with a number of subsequent winners in behind, then finished a distant 3rd (23L) to Gaelic Warrior but even that is a fair level of form given what that horse has gone on to achieve. LTO he was travelling strongly upsides Sir Gerhard when falling two out, admittedly in receipt of 10lbs. That rival is rated 155 and with ground conditions also to suit (last 4 runs on soft or heavy) I wouldn't be surprised to see the money coming for the Charles Byrnes runner.
2 members found this comment useful
16:40 4:40 Aintree
Pinot Rouge
Daily Racing
25 EW
@67.00
Lose
-50
I'm happy to give all the Albert Bartlett horses a pass having run in heavy ground just a few weeks ago. Pinot Rouge is the outsider of the lot and won on soft ground herself LTO but that was almost 6 weeks ago and just her second run of the season so I fancy she could be ready to go again. That form doesn't look obviously strong but a few of the field have run well OK next time and I have significant doubts about many of her rivals. Looked like she wasn't doing much at the finish and trainer reaches for cheekpieces, she's sure to handle conditions and has fewer question marks about her wellbeing to me that most of this field.
1 member found this comment useful
16:05 4:05 Aintree
Frero Banbou
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
Frero Banbou has had just the one spin over this obstacles when finishing 3rd behind Gesskille back in November from a mark of 133, and ran with credit last time from the same mark when having to race wide in the Plate at Cheltenham, eventually finishing 6th. Same C&D as his 3rd in the Topham but has been dropped 2lbs to a mark of 131, 3lbs below his last winning mark. Heavy ground would suit fine (same as Topham run) and although Venetia doesn't have a great record in this he will likely be ridden forward and can make the frame at a nice price.
1 member found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Aintree
Pic DOrhy
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.33
Lose
-50
Another Aintree contest in which Cheltenham Festival horses meet with horses kept fresh, with my approach generally being to favour the latter after a soft ground festival just four weeks ago. Pic D'Orhy won this last year after following a similar route which bypassed Prestbury in favour of the Ascot Chase. His form has arguably improved this year and he was impressive on soft ground in this race last year. Doubts remain over the Henderson runners but I'm certain Paul Nicholls will have his string ready to deliver their peak efforts in a bid to retain his champion trainer crown.
1 member found this comment useful
14:55 2:55 Aintree
Mystical Power
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 10/04 at 21:290.10 deduction for Golden Ace@9.00 withdrawn at 08:230.15 deduction for Dysart Enos @5.500 withdrawn at 09:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.25) = 2.50
@2.50
Win
75
Simply put I think Mystical Power is the best of these, just getting picked off LTO to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Supreme Novice. Settled much better in first time hood and he's still on the upgrade having had just 3 career starts. Unraced on heavy (has won on soft) but both his parents won on heavy and I don't see the ground as an issue. He finished 3.5L in front of Firefox last time and those two set the standard; I see no reason why that form should be reversed.
1 member found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Aintree
Whats Up Darling
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@17.00
Win
55
Will be suited by soft ground more than most having run with cut in the ground on all 5 starts over hurdles, finishing 2nd in a maiden behind Answer To Kayf then winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle. 5th in a Grade 1 then 2nd in a Grade 3 on heavy before a respectable 6th in a heavy ground Martin Pipe when not given a tough race at the business end. The front end of that race could yet be graded horses and What's Up Darling comes here 1lb lower from a mark of 136 for a race his trainer has effectively won twice in the last 4 runnings (including "Denise Foster" effort).
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Aintree
Giovinco
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
I narrowed this down to the two outsiders, Broadway Boy and Giovinco. Don't think much of the Kim Muir form, beating poor horses by a street; nothing has come out of Heart Wood's handicap win; Iroko I think is a 20f horse; Cianti Classico was impressive in the Ultima but I think that was the cup final this year and nothing really got into it from off the pace. Broadway Boy could nick this from the front in first time cheekpieces but I think Giovinco is massively overpriced based on his Brown Advisory 3rd behind Fact To File and Monty's Star. FTF would be odds on if running here and Monty's Star would be touching evens but you can get 9/1 about the 3rd placed horse who is proven on heavy ground and is a former C&D winner for a stable that's won this in the past and generally goes well at this meeting. Found himself too far back last time against two rivals that would win this comfortably in my view, and wasn't losing ground at the business end.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-120
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
